Stocks opened lower on Thursday and some weak economic reports pushed the indices down to their lows just before noon ET, but the underinvested are still trying to play catch up and the indices moved slowly but steadily higher from their low into the close. The Dow gained 45-points on the day while small caps and the EAFE led with gains near 1%.
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Today (Friday) we get the February jobs report before the open and estimates are looking for a gain of 180,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 4.9%. The Jobs Report Contest winner will be announced here.
With earnings season behind us, the market turns to the economic data and the jobs report is the big one.
The S&P 500 (C-Fund) is closing in on 2000 and its 200-day EMA. The 200-day simple moving average is not shown, but for those who follow it is at 2023. I've shown the big head and shoulders pattern the last couple of days, and that's a concern for the intermediate and longer-term, but how long this short-term rally will last, I don't know. The 200-day moving averages could be the stopper. We'll see. Open gaps are rare on this index chart but there is one above and one below right now.
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) has been outperforming and feels really strong after breaking above the multiple resistance lines. But when stocks go up, they tend to go up faster, and when they go down, the small caps go down faster so I guess we shouldn't be too surprised by the strength during this rally off the lows.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been struggling to get above its 200-day EMA. The rising support line means one or the other will have to give way fairly soon.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) had a big day and remains in a short-term rising trading channel as it reaches for a couple of open gaps.
The price of oil has remained in the rising wedge formation yet again so which way it breaks is on the watch list of many investors.
I have been thinking that gold is one of the canaries in the coal mine. It broke above that bullish flag yesterday and that is saying something - but what? With bond yields in a bear flag there's something fishy about this rally in stocks. Perhaps it's inflation, which wouldn't be bad for stocks, but bond yields would be rising if that was the case, and they are not.
Bonds were up yesterday and the bear flag in yields is remaining intact. If this breaks down, as bear flags tend to do, it would be bullish for the F-fund, but it would also mean that the economy may be in some trouble. Let's see what the jobs report does to it.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Today (Friday) we get the February jobs report before the open and estimates are looking for a gain of 180,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 4.9%. The Jobs Report Contest winner will be announced here.
With earnings season behind us, the market turns to the economic data and the jobs report is the big one.
The S&P 500 (C-Fund) is closing in on 2000 and its 200-day EMA. The 200-day simple moving average is not shown, but for those who follow it is at 2023. I've shown the big head and shoulders pattern the last couple of days, and that's a concern for the intermediate and longer-term, but how long this short-term rally will last, I don't know. The 200-day moving averages could be the stopper. We'll see. Open gaps are rare on this index chart but there is one above and one below right now.
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) has been outperforming and feels really strong after breaking above the multiple resistance lines. But when stocks go up, they tend to go up faster, and when they go down, the small caps go down faster so I guess we shouldn't be too surprised by the strength during this rally off the lows.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been struggling to get above its 200-day EMA. The rising support line means one or the other will have to give way fairly soon.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) had a big day and remains in a short-term rising trading channel as it reaches for a couple of open gaps.
The price of oil has remained in the rising wedge formation yet again so which way it breaks is on the watch list of many investors.
I have been thinking that gold is one of the canaries in the coal mine. It broke above that bullish flag yesterday and that is saying something - but what? With bond yields in a bear flag there's something fishy about this rally in stocks. Perhaps it's inflation, which wouldn't be bad for stocks, but bond yields would be rising if that was the case, and they are not.
Bonds were up yesterday and the bear flag in yields is remaining intact. If this breaks down, as bear flags tend to do, it would be bullish for the F-fund, but it would also mean that the economy may be in some trouble. Let's see what the jobs report does to it.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
