Greetings
Here's A quick review of September: This was the 2nd consecutive month we've closed down. The last time we had 2 consecutive down months was September of 2022 when the following October 2022 ended up as the low of that year, and thus began our 31.95% run into the July 2023 Top.
This September closed down -4.87%. Going back to 1960, Sep-2023 ranked as the 53rd best of 64, placing it the bottom 17%. The chart below shows we bounced off the average intra-month low, then finished just below the average-of-losses.
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Looking ahead into October: We'll have 22 trading days with no holidays. While not a given, historically this is a decent performing month but it can get volatile (should it decide to go to the downside).
Historically, October has the 4th best win ratio with 62%, the 2nd best average-of-gains at 4.26%, the 4th best total average at 1.09%, and the 11th worst average-of-loses at -4.05%. The chart below shows us the general ranking when compared to the other 11 months.
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Digging down further into October, The chart below shows the most recent 21-years have a 67% win ratio, & 66% win ratio when September had closed down.
Here are some random October stats from 1960-2022:
Our 63 Octobers have an upside bias. The best 21 averaged 6.52%, the middle 21 averaged 1.37%, and the the worst 21 averaged -4.61%
From 63-Years or all 756 Months, the best month was recorded in October 1974 @ 16.30% and the 2 worst months were in Oct 1987 at -21.76% and 2008 at -16.94%.
Given October can be a dynamic month, we have a fairly wide percentage range to work with. Here's next Month's Projection (based on the previous historical range). For October, buyers may want to step in (at or below) the average-of-losses at 4114, while sellers may want to step out (at or above) the average-of gains at 4471.
From the previous September Blog I had posted when September closed down hard, October was generally much better. Although this year's news cycle hasn't been great, I do expect a good October, and a good quarter.
Historically, the 4th quarter is the strongest, next weekend I'll post the quarterly stats.
Thanks for reading, have a great month!
Here's A quick review of September: This was the 2nd consecutive month we've closed down. The last time we had 2 consecutive down months was September of 2022 when the following October 2022 ended up as the low of that year, and thus began our 31.95% run into the July 2023 Top.
This September closed down -4.87%. Going back to 1960, Sep-2023 ranked as the 53rd best of 64, placing it the bottom 17%. The chart below shows we bounced off the average intra-month low, then finished just below the average-of-losses.
___
Looking ahead into October: We'll have 22 trading days with no holidays. While not a given, historically this is a decent performing month but it can get volatile (should it decide to go to the downside).
Historically, October has the 4th best win ratio with 62%, the 2nd best average-of-gains at 4.26%, the 4th best total average at 1.09%, and the 11th worst average-of-loses at -4.05%. The chart below shows us the general ranking when compared to the other 11 months.
___
Digging down further into October, The chart below shows the most recent 21-years have a 67% win ratio, & 66% win ratio when September had closed down.
Here are some random October stats from 1960-2022:
Our 63 Octobers have an upside bias. The best 21 averaged 6.52%, the middle 21 averaged 1.37%, and the the worst 21 averaged -4.61%
From 63-Years or all 756 Months, the best month was recorded in October 1974 @ 16.30% and the 2 worst months were in Oct 1987 at -21.76% and 2008 at -16.94%.
Given October can be a dynamic month, we have a fairly wide percentage range to work with. Here's next Month's Projection (based on the previous historical range). For October, buyers may want to step in (at or below) the average-of-losses at 4114, while sellers may want to step out (at or above) the average-of gains at 4471.
From the previous September Blog I had posted when September closed down hard, October was generally much better. Although this year's news cycle hasn't been great, I do expect a good October, and a good quarter.
Historically, the 4th quarter is the strongest, next weekend I'll post the quarterly stats.
Thanks for reading, have a great month!
