Greetings
March 2024 was yet another phenomenal month. Compared with the previous 63, this March 2024 ranked 21 of 64 with a 3.10% monthly gain.
While it's still too early to make a call, based on YTD data (31 years filtered) we might speculate (or project) a yearly 96.8% win ratio with an average gain of 18.58%.
___The chart below shows where we currently fall within the 63-year historical YTD range. Here we can see we are well above March’s average-of-all-gains.
___For some more yearly projections, our current 63-year win ratio is 73%, but… The 37 years January closed up MTD, the yearly win ratio rose to 86.5%
The 34 years February closed up MTD, the yearly win ratio rose to 85.3%
The 24 years both Jan & Feb closed up MTD, the yearly win ratio rose to 95.8%
Of the 41 years March Closed up MTD, the yearly win ratio rose to 85.3%
The 18 years Jan/Feb/Mar each closed up, our yearly win ratio was 100% with an average 19.30% gain.
___April has a 73% win ratio (Tied with Dec for the best month) and of those 18 years where Jan/Feb/Mar closed up together, April has a 78% win ratio.
Here’s the April averages across the past 63 years correlated with Apr 2024. From a historical perspective, a seller may want to protect their gains above SPX 5428 while a buyer may want to increase their allocations below SPX 5116.
It should be a fun April, but do be careful, sometimes "Sell In May" gets triggered a bit early.
Take care...Jason
March 2024 was yet another phenomenal month. Compared with the previous 63, this March 2024 ranked 21 of 64 with a 3.10% monthly gain.
While it's still too early to make a call, based on YTD data (31 years filtered) we might speculate (or project) a yearly 96.8% win ratio with an average gain of 18.58%.
___The chart below shows where we currently fall within the 63-year historical YTD range. Here we can see we are well above March’s average-of-all-gains.
___For some more yearly projections, our current 63-year win ratio is 73%, but… The 37 years January closed up MTD, the yearly win ratio rose to 86.5%
The 34 years February closed up MTD, the yearly win ratio rose to 85.3%
The 24 years both Jan & Feb closed up MTD, the yearly win ratio rose to 95.8%
Of the 41 years March Closed up MTD, the yearly win ratio rose to 85.3%
The 18 years Jan/Feb/Mar each closed up, our yearly win ratio was 100% with an average 19.30% gain.
___April has a 73% win ratio (Tied with Dec for the best month) and of those 18 years where Jan/Feb/Mar closed up together, April has a 78% win ratio.
Here’s the April averages across the past 63 years correlated with Apr 2024. From a historical perspective, a seller may want to protect their gains above SPX 5428 while a buyer may want to increase their allocations below SPX 5116.
It should be a fun April, but do be careful, sometimes "Sell In May" gets triggered a bit early.
Take care...Jason
