starfox182's account talk

[starfox182]

I'm currently all in TZA!!! May not be for too long if the markets keep shooting up but no QE3 as of yet. Still got the press conference though!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I'm currently all in TZA!!! May not be for too long if the markets keep shooting up but no QE3 as of yet. Still got the press conference though!

I'm with ya buddy... I am 50% in SPXU some at 17.16 and some at 16.56, so even though I am long TNA and some stocks too, I am at least hoping that I can offload these shorts at even or gain since so many people are thinking the market is going to start heading up

We'll see :nuts:

 

[law87]

market is so freaking boring today!!!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

market is so freaking boring today!!!

Even and boring is better than opposite (down if your long or up if your short) and exciting... but not as fun as expected (you traded correctly) and exciting

Did that make sense?

Although, I am surprised that the market hasn't really reacted to the Fed announcement. So I guess all the people I read thought it would be down today... not so far.

 

[law87]

Even and boring is better than opposite (down if your long or up if your short) and exciting... but not as fun as expected (you traded correctly) and exciting

Did that make sense?

Although, I am surprised that the market hasn't really reacted to the Fed announcement. So I guess all the people I read thought it would be down today... not so far.

i rather let it rip so i can be either excited or dissapointed right away...this is horrible

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

i rather let it rip so i can be either excited or dissapointed right away...this is horrible

hmmm, good point... :nuts:

I think a lot of this hum drum is that the volume is light (and I think that is because the big boys are on the sidelines)... Not sure, but it sounds good

 

[FAB1]

i rather let it rip so i can be either excited or dissapointed right away...this is horrible

I let one rip the other day that was pretty horrible - my wife said so.

 

[starfox182]

Guest Post: Ominous Similarities
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-ominous-similarities

Boehner Releases Revised Plan
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/boehn...-year-decade-buys-4-months-next-debt-ceiling-

Nomura: US Downgrade may cause repo market liquidity freeze
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nomura-us-downgrade-may-cause-repo-market-liquidity-freeze

CBO finds Reid plan half a trillion short of $2.7 trillion promised; Actual cuts are $375 billion over ten years
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cbo-f...n-promised-actual-cuts-are-375-billion-over-t

Step Aside UniCredit and Italy: The US is Number One... In Monthly Spike of Default Bets
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/step-aside-unicredit-and-italy-us-number-one-monthly-risk-bets

 

[starfox182]

Here's some analysis from my coworker, we work together on determining market direction, and we are still trying to develop a better system based on volume which is a work in progress. Sorry that it's a bit hard to read, still very readable though!

This is why we feel that markers are headed down, barring great economic news of course.

 

[starfox182]

OMG I bought FAZ with my entire account balance right before Buffet bailed out BAC!!! WTF!!!!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

OMG I bought FAZ with my entire account balance right before Buffet bailed out BAC!!! WTF!!!!

So sorry to hear that

 

[starfox182]

I finally found my volume data. From top to bottom: (price action, overall volume, selling volume, buying volume, net volume(positive or negative). I've attached FAZ, FAS, TZA, TNA and BAC. (Keep your mouse on the chart for a bit without moving it to see the symbol pop up. Or you could save it to zoom in)

 

[starfox182]

I've also attached the S&P 500, Russell 2k, Gold and Silver. Is it just me or do the masses buy the SPY no matter what? Hmm....

 

[starfox182]

I finally had a breakthrough! I always thought the SPY and IWM were a representation of the SP500 and R2K indicies much more so than what they really are. I was very confused when I saw that the all that buying volume in the SPY and IWM and yet the prices went up and down. I figured something was up. When I was thinking about it, I figured that perhaps the SPY just tracks the price movement of the SP500 index but I very quickly concluded that it didn't since when I bought the ETF version of the index before, it affected price.

It is my conclusion/theory that the SPY acts as the 501st component of the SP 500 and the IWM acts as the 2001st component of the R2K and thus the SPY/IWM are not true representations of the SP500/R2K indicies. When you buy the SPY, what are you buying? You are buying 1/500th of every company in the SP500 index. I always based my support/resistance levels off the ETF's and not the indicies which is okay since people still have to buy into the ETF to trade the index but not ideal. To know true support/resistance levels it would be ideal to track the actual index. Perhaps most of you knew this already, but I had no idea. I then got the actual indicies to comapre which confirmed my analysis. Thus, I may spend $280 a month to track them in real time.....(because there could be a GIANT voulme spike on SPY for instance and the price shoots up, then out of nowhere, the price starts plumetting!!! How could this be? Since the SPY is just a component 1 out of 501 components, there were massive selling in the other components/companies but you wouldn't know since you are tracking the SPY and not the index)! I attached the graphs below of the SPY, SP500 index, IWM, and Russell 2000 index which confirms my analysis. Notice the massive buying in the ETF index trackers and the opposite in areas of the indicies themselves:

Example: On the SPY, there was massive buying at close, but in reality, the S&P 500 index had selling at close.....

The top 2 graphs are the R2K, and the bottom 2 are the SP500 (ETF price tracker, not true representation of indicies are on the left side, while actual indicies on the right)

 

[KevinD]

I haven't read either link but I will some tine today.


How ETFs work?
http://finance.yahoo.com/etf/education/01

An Inside Look At ETF Construction
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/05/062705.asp#axzz1X4vqLcTS

 

[starfox182]

I'm not really sure this belongs on here but I knew you folks were all knowledgeable individuals.

Do I have lifetime reinstatement eligibility? When I resign?


I've been an employee of TSA (excepted service) since 2006 and achieved permanent status in 2008. I plan on resigning and working for the county very soon.


TSA/OPM have an Interchange Agreement Eff: 01/31/13






AFGE:
An employee having three years or more of permanent service would be appointed on a “career” appointment. The TSA service which commences with a permanent appointment will be accepted toward meeting the competitive service requirement for a “career” appointment. The primary difference between these appointments is that attaining “career” tenure allows for lifetime noncompetitive Federal reemployment eligibility.
But:
FederalSoup:
To have reinstatement eligibility, you must have served in the competitive service. For most current excepted service employees there are usually interchange agreements that allow them to move to the competitive service without open competition. These only apply to current excepted service employees, the privilege ends once you leave the service.