Speculation: When Border Security Becomes Domestic Power

[JTH]

When Border Security Becomes Domestic Power: The ICE Scenario

Note: This post isn’t about immigration politics. It’s about what to buy/sell when government power expands. It would take a real shift in law, politics, or public pressure to pull back the powers already set in motion. I'll make the case for how power is expanding, thus this leads to the Buy/Sell conclusions.

• You’re early if you believe this trend will accelerate and become structural.
• You’re late if you’re hoping to be the very first to profit from the “security state” trade.
• But you’re right on time if you’re preparing for the next escalation.

How It’s Already Started
The groundwork for a militarized, ever-expanding ICE is already being laid. The last decade saw ICE get billions in new funding, more agents, military surplus vehicles, and broad leeway to operate far from the border. The “war on drugs” rhetoric has morphed into a military assisted “war on cartels,” with U.S. leaders openly talking about military action in Mexico, drone strikes on drug convoys, and American forces recently destroying cartel-linked drug boats and submarines at sea. .
● Now, cartel violence is cited as the latest justification. Reports of threats, doxxing, and bounties on agents spark fresh calls for more boots, bigger budgets, and looser rules of engagement.

● As of 2024, ICE already has about 21,800 authorized personnel, with additional contractors, temps, and local support not always included.
● Under this expansion, ICE is projected to hire 10,000 new agents over several years.
● ICE’s detention infrastructure is planned to support an avg. daily population of 100K detainees, with 80K new ICE beds funded.
● ICE’s weaponization and equipment has ramped up: now purchases military-grade gear, including drones, body armor, and modern sidearms.
● An executive order limiting the transfer of military equipment to police was rescinded, making it easier for ICE to receive surplus military hardware.
● ICE now runs extensive databases, facial recognition, and cellphone tracking operations, often in coordination with private tech firms.

Fear Drives Expansion
A media blitz hammers the message: “Cartels are here. They’re targeting Americans. No one is safe.” Elected leaders demand emergency powers, and the public, (worried about safety), mostly goes along. Critics are told they’re weak or naive. Protests are met not just with riot police, but federal agents in tactical gear, often ICE or DHS, and it's already happening.

Checks and Balances Erode
Judges defer to “national security.” Funding is tied to cooperation. The distinction between border enforcement and domestic policing blurs. Now ICE is used not just for immigration, but for crowd control, surveillance, and “homeland protection.” Anyone can be a target if labeled a threat.

A New American Mindset ● Primed environment to accept checkpoints, mass detentions, surveillance.
● Since 2001, nearly two generations have lived their formative years under constant surveillance and security checks, a “new normal” for American life.
● Federal agents, often under DHS or ICE have been deployed in major cities during protests, scooping people off the street into unmarked vans.
● Surveillance has expanded, emergency powers invoked, and Congress keeps signing off, in the name of national security.
● COVID: Americans accepted lockdowns, curfews, and travel bans.

Stock Market Play: What To Buy/Sell If ICE Becomes America’s Domestic Force?

• Likely Winners:
 • Defense, surveillance, and security tech with new demand for weapons, drones, and analytics.
 • Private prison and detention companies with fresh contracts as arrests and detentions spike.

• Likely Losers:
 • Travel, hospitality, and local consumer names, especially in big cities or border regions, could suffer if checkpoints become common.
 • Agriculture and low-wage service stocks with immigrant-heavy workforces could see disruption.

• Wildcards:
 • Bitcoin, gold, and “escape assets” catch a bid when Americans get nervous about civil liberties and capital controls.
 • Volatility products (VIX ETFs, S&P puts) might see spikes if headlines get uglier.

How to Position:
Watch for new contract wins, political headlines, and earnings from these “security state” sectors. Hedge exposure to consumer/urban stocks if unrest rises. If you’re worried about the pace, keep some dry powder in cash, gold, or defensive names.

Security State Sectors: Who Wins if Control Expands?
• Defense & Aerospace (ITA/XAR): Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman all benefit from new military and enforcement contracts.
• Security & Surveillance Tech (CIBR/HACK): Palantir, Axon, Motorola Solutions, and Leidos supply surveillance, facial recognition, and police tech.
• Private Prisons & Detention (CXW, GEO): CoreCivic and GEO Group land contracts for mass detention, processing, and transport.
• Cloud & Infrastructure (SKYY): Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, and IBM power the government’s expanding surveillance and data operations.
• Weapons & Law Enforcement Gear[/b]: Axon, Vista Outdoor, and Smith & Wesson provide tasers, riot gear, and equipment for federal and local agencies.
• Cybersecurity (CIBR, BUG): CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Fortinet are critical as surveillance and government systems require constant cyber defense.
• Transport & Logistics (XLI, XTN): Jacobs, Fluor, and Oshkosh help build, move, and supply the machinery of enforcement.

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What Takes The ICE Scenario Off The Table?

• Congress steps in to restrict ICE’s funding, mission, or legal authorities, blocking expansion or militarization through new laws or oversight.
• The courts (including the Supreme Court) strike down emergency powers or broad enforcement tactics as unconstitutional, reining in federal agencies.
• Widespread public opposition and mass protest force leaders to back down from aggressive enforcement and surveillance.
• State and local governments refuse cooperation with federal agencies, setting legal or logistical barriers to ICE and DHS expansion.
• A new administration or bipartisan political deal rewrites priorities, scaling back enforcement in favor of legal reform, technology, or diplomatic solutions.
• Major media, watchdog groups, or whistleblowers expose overreach or abuses, shifting public opinion and putting pressure on policymakers.

I’m not paranoid; I’m just early, or too late...JTH

 

[tsptalk]

I’m not paranoid; I’m just early, or too late...JTH

 

[JTH]

I minor observation on the ICE agent who discharged his weapon into a US Citizen.

He was already limping when he walked behind the car and around the to the front, yet a person with compromised mobility chose to place themselves in front of a non-compliant running vehicle.

Opine

 

[Boghie]

Not certain...

When I was growing up I was told to comply with officers. I have done so in the few instances where it pertains - in one case in a crappy situation - and have never had a gun pulled on me. Another common sense thing to do is to de-escalate and make things as simple and clear as possible.

Just saying.

 

[James48843]

Fun fact- Federal ICE agents has zero authority to arrest US citizens, and are not sworn/trained police officers.

The only police powers they posses is the ability to briefly detain someone in order to determine nationality. They enforce immigration law. Period.

If they were concerned that someone was blocking their path, or impeding their movement, the appropriate thing to do would be for them to report the interference to local police, or get a warrant signed by a judge that a real police officer can serve. They can coordinate with the FBI for obtaining a criminal warrant for “impeding”. THEY don’t have police powers to arrest a U.S. Citizen.

It’s not the right reaction to kill people. The video clearly shows one agent reach into the vehicle and attempt to grab the occupant out. Not a smart move.

That in my mind would result in the instant death of the man reaching inside. He’s a masked gunman, he is armed , and is reaching in.


When I was growing up, I was taught that police officers helped people. These people obviously weren’t helpers. They are something else entirely. These masked kidnappers repeatedly are destroying confidence in justice. That’s not a positive thing.

Stock tip: buy GEO private prison stock. They are planning on locking up millions of people, first immigrants, but then the rest of those opposed to the government will be locked up too. $76 a day, year or more a head for a LOT money over time. The contracts provide a minimum number of prisoners guarantied. GEO also makes money by using prisoner labor and only paying $1 a day for it. That’s a hot button issue, as technically, the prisoners are convicted of anything, so technically they are supposed to be paid at least minimum wage. They aren’t.

GEO has fallen in value by almost half since the beginning of the year, but contracts are starting to come in, and quarterly profits are rising. Currently GEO trades at $16.60 a share.

Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[JTH]

Not certain...

When I was growing up I was told to comply with officers. I have done so in the few instances where it pertains - in one case in a crappy situation - and have never had a gun pulled on me. Another common sense thing to do is to de-escalate and make things as simple and clear as possible.

Just saying.

100% agree, she chose to place herself in direct confrontation with armed agents.

Another annoyance, we know who was killed, yet we don't know who killed her, nor what his qualifications are. There are already reports coming by the Star Tribune this is the same agent involved in an unrelated enforcement operation in Bloomington, Minnesota, during which he was dragged and injured by a vehicle while attempting to apprehend a suspect. I will not post his name, here but it's not so hard to find (although I believe certian sites are masking intel on him)

 

[Boghie]

I just watched the video.
Just watch the video

 

[JTH]

I just watched the video.
Just watch the video

That's the funny thing, people's view of this can be largely dependent on their view of ICE. I would guess he was close enough to get hit, he did shoot a tad late, but that was a fast scene.

My guess, there's a prior incident they had with her, they certainly acted like they knew she didn't have a gun by the way they approached the car. Key difference here, one of them is supposedly trained, had a weapon, then weaponized a car upon himself. They already knew the car was running when she stuck it in reverse.

 

[Boghie]

This is a true tragedy. There was no intent to run over an officer, there was no intent to shoot some woman protesting. Nobody had preconceved desires to kill anyone.

This is what happened:

• This woman has TDS and really doesn't like the ICE operations - whatever floats one's boat I guess.
• She got wind of an operation, where ICE was forming, where they were going, and at least the likely route.
• She, and others, blocked the route with their cars.
• When the cars were told to move at least one did, but she didn't. She did not comply
• She then actually positioned her SUV for a better block of the ICE vehicles, she did not comply

1. The ICE vehicle emptied out, they were all wearing identifying vests.
2. One ICE agent told her to "Get the 'F out of your car". She did not comply
3. The ICE agent grabbed the door and attempted to open it
4. She backed up with a turn - probably looking behind her. She did not comply.
5. Concurrently, another ICE agent walked in front of her vehicle from the passenger side to the drivers side
6. She accelerated forward, likely stressed and not looking
7. She hit the ICE agent - who mostly dodged up and kinda over the hood - who then shot her.
   
   At any point all she had to do was comply. That is it. I don't think the ICE agent that got hit had other options in the time he had to react. He could not have a clue why she accelerated toward him and hit him - and, no, they did not have prior history. It was a tragedy, but all she had to do was comply at any point up to the instant of her accelerating the vehicle. Instead she escalated the situation, made it dangerous, and then made people make instant decisions.

 

[weatherweenie]

From Title 1, U.S. DOJ Policy on Use of Force:

“Firearms may not be discharged solely to disable moving vehicles. Specifically, firearms may not be discharged at a moving vehicle unless: (1) a person in the vehicle is threatening the officer or another person with deadly force by means other than the vehicle; or (2) the vehicle is operated in a manner that threatens to cause death or serious physical injury … and no other objectively reasonable means of defense appear to exist, which includes moving out of the path of the vehicle.”

Also, placing oneself in the path of a moving vehicle constitutes officer-created jeopardy and undermines any claim that deadly force was necessary.

 

[Boghie]

She did her little protest.
Then, she went 'Full Monty'
Never go 'Full Monty', Never.

While I cannot verify that she intended to hit the guy, she did accelerate into him, she did force him to evade, she did hit him with a glancing blow, and she was shot. All she had to do was: 1) leave when asked (someone else did just that), 2) get out of the car when asked, or 3) not do anything and get dragged out of the car making a nice scene for the videographer. She chose poorly.

I don't know what it is about these young whippersnappers. I really don't care if it is five armed officers (as it was here, as she knew it was) or five armed drug lord gangstas that want your stuff - just do what they say and get out of the situation alive. Don't do dumb. Don't force instant decisions. Calm down. Listen. Deescalate. Deal with any Large Constitutional Issues later - become a multi-millionaire through court action!!!

 

[weatherweenie]

I would like to belive that a supposedly trained/professional law enforcement officer is able to conduct themselves in accordance to DOJ regs with respect to the use of force, and give a civilian the benefit of the doubt.

He could have just as easily shot her tires out, shot her engine or let her go. He chose deadly force.

 

[Boghie]

You haven't seen the video @weatherweenie . That is obvious.

This is a tragedy. She did not have to be shot. She could have gone home with an exciting story. She could have done absolutely nothing - resulting in NOT getting shot. Or, she could have complied with orders from armed and uniformed government agents. Perhaps the agent who was hit could have located somewhere else. But, in the end, all she had to do was nothing. Nothing at all.

 

[nasa1974]

I just watched the video.
Just watch the video

I guess we both saw something a little different from the video. I disagree with most of your analysis.

 

[weatherweenie]

You haven't seen the video @weatherweenie . That is obvious.

This is a tragedy. She did not have to be shot. She could have gone home with an exciting story. She could have done absolutely nothing - resulting in NOT getting shot. Or, she could have complied with orders from armed and uniformed government agents. Perhaps the agent who was hit could have located somewhere else. But, in the end, all she had to do was nothing. Nothing at all.

I have seen the videos, multiple angles. If she was such a threat, why was the shooter the only one who pulled his weapon? Pretty obvious the other officers did not view her as a threat.

It's clear that we are not going to agree in this tragedy.

Have a great day.

 

[James48843]

It was murder. Clear as day.
He needs to be behind bars awaiting trial for murder.

 

[James48843]

Note: if I was an ICE Agent, I’d say this is a good time to look for a different line of work.

 

[JTH]

This agent escalated further by stepping in front of a running vehicle, I'm certain he closed the distance as the car was reversing, thus his further escalation lead to her death. His poor judgment, created the threat needed to justify use of force.

Then they kept bystanders from rendering first aid, Video captures an agent responding with "I don't care" when told the bystander was a doctor.

They secured a crime scene then tainted the evidence by fleeing the crime scene.

Ambulances and fire trucks were delayed because ICE vehicles blocked the road; paramedics had to approach on foot and carry Good out without a stretcher in some accounts.

The shooting happened just blocks from where George Floyd was killed in 2020 A nice setup for another Rodney King moment.