03/09/26
Another surge in the price of oil and a disastrous jobs report sent stocks tumbling on Friday. Once again the morning lows were holding after the release of the jobs data, but late selling on Friday and into the weekend pushed the S&P and Nasdaq down toward the lows of the day. Charts are cracking and that's concerning, and it is happening just when the seasonality calendar turns more bullish.
The February Jobs Report missed estimates badly. The expected gain of 60,000 to 70,000 jobs turned into a loss of 92,000 jobs and there was a tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. This data is from briefing.com:
That may turn out to be a one off, we won't know until we get more data down the road, but the price of oil moving above $90 is as real as it gets and of course gas stations don't waste any time raising the price of gasoline, so we can feel the effects almost right away.
The last time oil hit $90 was in 2022 during the inflation turmoil, and then we have to go back to the early 20 teens before that. Like bond yields, it's not so much the level that is a big concern, it is the pace at which it is changing that jolts us, and investors and money managers are adjusting their portfolios for these new developments.
Oil futures are in backwardation, meaning the longer term futures are trading lower than the short-term futures, which tells us investors don't expect this rally to last very long. But the oil futures were flying high on Sunday evening (+ $16), so expect more volatility in the stocks market on Monday morning.
Yields were moving up on Friday and the 4.13% yield on the 10-year Treasury puts it back in a range it had been in most of the last half of 2025, except for a few whac-a-mole deviations from the range. I don't think the market dislikes a 4.1% yield, but shooting up from 3.95% in 5 days makes investors nervous.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had been attempting to form a bull flag (blue), but Friday's decline pushed it below the flag and the key moving average (purple), and we're seeing more of a rollover action. I like to see 3 to 5 closes below support before confirming a breakdown, but as quickly as things are moving, we're more likely to see panicky action. The backwardation in oil could mean oil prices come down quickly on any kind of resolution with Iran, and it would likely be painful to be short (bet against) this market, but in the short term, we'll just have to wait and see if these charts confirm the breakdown this week. The S&P 500 is now down 1.5% for the year (the C-fund is down 1.3%.)
The weekly chart shows the S&P 500 just above its 20-week moving average. That is a level that tends to hold during a bull market, but once it fails, it can get ugly.
The Transportation Index took another crooked number hit with that 3.5% loss on Friday, and this chart went from forming a bullish flag / pennant and holding above its 20-day average, to breaking down below its 50-day average in the span of two days. Higher oil prices and the job losses changes the mood here as much as anywhere.
The Russell 2000 small caps were also hit hard this week. The Russell is not our S-fund, but the S-fund small cap index lost 3.35% last week. It was also in some kind of a bullish flag and it needs help now to stay in it.
Seasonality suggests things could improve this week, but seasonality isn't a primary indicator, and there's a lot going on right now. Typically mid-term years peak in April before a summer sell off. We'll see. The futures are deep in the red, S&P is down another 118, but you can't always trust the Sunday night futures.
Gold and bond futures are down, so we're still not seeing a flight to safety for some reason.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) cracked! The head and shoulders pattern broke down with Friday's loss. This isn't a good sign if you are a believer in chart patterns over indicators and headlines. If this can't recapture the neckline quickly, the downside target based on the H&S pattern would be near 2375. The 200-day average is there near 2450 to try to save it before then.
ACWX was down 0.83% on Friday but the I-fund was given a 1.16% loss. They always seem to adjust it back, but if you are making transactions, it can mess with your return. 67.50 should be a place to find support (old broken resistance) and there are a couple of open gaps (red) that would be satisfied if it goes that low. There are now also open gaps (blue) above that will be an eventual lure.
The dollar was down slightly but still in a short-term uptrend, and above the previous high.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again, and like the chart above, it found support at its broken resistance line on Friday. If 74 holds, the stock market may find some relief as well.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Another surge in the price of oil and a disastrous jobs report sent stocks tumbling on Friday. Once again the morning lows were holding after the release of the jobs data, but late selling on Friday and into the weekend pushed the S&P and Nasdaq down toward the lows of the day. Charts are cracking and that's concerning, and it is happening just when the seasonality calendar turns more bullish.
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The February Jobs Report missed estimates badly. The expected gain of 60,000 to 70,000 jobs turned into a loss of 92,000 jobs and there was a tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. This data is from briefing.com:
That may turn out to be a one off, we won't know until we get more data down the road, but the price of oil moving above $90 is as real as it gets and of course gas stations don't waste any time raising the price of gasoline, so we can feel the effects almost right away.
The last time oil hit $90 was in 2022 during the inflation turmoil, and then we have to go back to the early 20 teens before that. Like bond yields, it's not so much the level that is a big concern, it is the pace at which it is changing that jolts us, and investors and money managers are adjusting their portfolios for these new developments.
Oil futures are in backwardation, meaning the longer term futures are trading lower than the short-term futures, which tells us investors don't expect this rally to last very long. But the oil futures were flying high on Sunday evening (+ $16), so expect more volatility in the stocks market on Monday morning.
Yields were moving up on Friday and the 4.13% yield on the 10-year Treasury puts it back in a range it had been in most of the last half of 2025, except for a few whac-a-mole deviations from the range. I don't think the market dislikes a 4.1% yield, but shooting up from 3.95% in 5 days makes investors nervous.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had been attempting to form a bull flag (blue), but Friday's decline pushed it below the flag and the key moving average (purple), and we're seeing more of a rollover action. I like to see 3 to 5 closes below support before confirming a breakdown, but as quickly as things are moving, we're more likely to see panicky action. The backwardation in oil could mean oil prices come down quickly on any kind of resolution with Iran, and it would likely be painful to be short (bet against) this market, but in the short term, we'll just have to wait and see if these charts confirm the breakdown this week. The S&P 500 is now down 1.5% for the year (the C-fund is down 1.3%.)
The weekly chart shows the S&P 500 just above its 20-week moving average. That is a level that tends to hold during a bull market, but once it fails, it can get ugly.
The Transportation Index took another crooked number hit with that 3.5% loss on Friday, and this chart went from forming a bullish flag / pennant and holding above its 20-day average, to breaking down below its 50-day average in the span of two days. Higher oil prices and the job losses changes the mood here as much as anywhere.
The Russell 2000 small caps were also hit hard this week. The Russell is not our S-fund, but the S-fund small cap index lost 3.35% last week. It was also in some kind of a bullish flag and it needs help now to stay in it.
Seasonality suggests things could improve this week, but seasonality isn't a primary indicator, and there's a lot going on right now. Typically mid-term years peak in April before a summer sell off. We'll see. The futures are deep in the red, S&P is down another 118, but you can't always trust the Sunday night futures.
Gold and bond futures are down, so we're still not seeing a flight to safety for some reason.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) cracked! The head and shoulders pattern broke down with Friday's loss. This isn't a good sign if you are a believer in chart patterns over indicators and headlines. If this can't recapture the neckline quickly, the downside target based on the H&S pattern would be near 2375. The 200-day average is there near 2450 to try to save it before then.
ACWX was down 0.83% on Friday but the I-fund was given a 1.16% loss. They always seem to adjust it back, but if you are making transactions, it can mess with your return. 67.50 should be a place to find support (old broken resistance) and there are a couple of open gaps (red) that would be satisfied if it goes that low. There are now also open gaps (blue) above that will be an eventual lure.
The dollar was down slightly but still in a short-term uptrend, and above the previous high.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again, and like the chart above, it found support at its broken resistance line on Friday. If 74 holds, the stock market may find some relief as well.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
