Snake Eyes

The current rally has at least temporarily run out of steam and the Seven Sentinels did indeed issue a sell signal today so I'll be moving to G fund tomorrow.

However, this is still a bull market until proven otherwise. The underlying strength has been phenomenal and I seriously doubt we turn down for much longer or go too deep. Bearishness has been quick to rise and that's what has really kept this market moving higher. And there's no reason to think now will be any different. Having said that I would not doubt we see another buy signal within the next 3 weeks or so. Hopefully that signal gets me in at lower prices. Recent buy signals have been on strong upward thrusts and with our TSP that makes it tough to take advantage of lower prices when they occur. I can only do what I can do though, so there's no use worrying about that.

So here's the charts:
$NAMO.jpg
NAMO, NYMO, NAHL, and NYHL all flashing sell signals today.
$TRIN.jpg
TRIN, TRINQ, and BPCOMPQ flashing sells here as well. That's 7 simultaneous sell signals which means the system now goes to a sell condition.

Here's how our Top 25% were position for today's action:
Allocation by fund ~ 2009 Chart 1.jpg
As I'd mentioned yesterday, I expected cash levels to rise very modestly for today's market action and it did. But it's still within a tight range on the chart. Stock holdings dipped accordingly.
Total Cash-Stock Exp ~ 2009 Chart 1.jpg
Same story here, different look.

I expect to post the Top 25% charts early tomorrow morning so everyone can see how much they might have changed. I'm not expecting a big difference, but I'm sure cash levels rose at least modestly.

I also am going to enter my IFT tonight for an all G position by close of business tomorrow. Hopefully I'll be selling into strength. Good luck everyone. :)
 
And I thought I was nuts saying SS showing sell today.....Maybe I "read into" your findings early on......
Although, Not a strong ending in any direction as far as I am concerned....
Coolhand...You rock!
 
Coolhand,

Based on previous experiences with tentative signals, and considering Frixxx's opinion that it is not a strong ending in any direction, any thoughts on the possibility that this signal might be reversed tomorrow. Tia. Would strong or impressive economic numbers be enough to influence sentiment, or are we definitely set on this?
 
Coolhand,

Thanks for doing this. I've been interested in using the SS for a bit now and never really understood it. I missed the last buy signal but I'm subscribed to this blog now so I won't miss a beat. Thanks for taking the TIME to explain the charts and so forth. Members like you MAKE this MB. Tom, your a given :)
 
airlift;bt528 said:
Coolhand,

Based on previous experiences with tentative signals, and considering Frixxx's opinion that it is not a strong ending in any direction, any thoughts on the possibility that this signal might be reversed tomorrow. Tia. Would strong or impressive economic numbers be enough to influence sentiment, or are we definitely set on this?

AL, this is not a tentative signal. It is a sell signal. I am only framing it in the current sentiment environment. The best I can tell you is what I've already said. We are in a bull market with quick rising bearish sentiment. What flips the SS back to a buy and when that occurs I do not know. The system does not usually roll over quickly so I certainly do not anticipate an immediate reversal.
 
Taken from a poster on TT:

IBD still has the market in a confirmed uptrend, but as of today there are 3 distribution days for the Dow Industrials, 2 for the S&P500 & 1 for the Nasdaq. In the past the 7 Sentinals were usually a few days ahead of the IBD call, so we will see what happens next.
 
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