Show-me Account Talk

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You are absolutely correct. It's very risky to trade one's retirement account. If I do, it will only be a very small percentage of the account. The bulk will be invested by trading the long side of the indexes that mirror the SPX, 4500 completion index, AGG, and perhaps an international fund similar to the I fund. I have kept a list of ETF's that Spaf posted a long time ago and have it somewhere. I hope I find it and will look for it.
 
Show,
For the benefit of all, I want to share an answer from Spaf (written in February 2007):

"Spaf,
Excuse me for using your thread to ask this question, even though it has to do with trading the markets.........

Airlift,
I use Scottrade (ST). They get awards every year. They are reputable, low cost, and have small branch offices nation wide. Some other brokers offer more bells and whistles, but they charge more too! All in what pleases you. I would suggest shopping around and stay away from the very cheap ones that you can't verify their reputation
There are hundreds if not thousands of ETFs, available for everything! I like IShares reporting system on the trade board. They have good updates! F-Fund = [AGG], S&P 500 = IShare [IVV], Small Caps Index = [IJR], and the I-Fund = [EFA]. No G-Fund but you will have a broker cash account, and ST pays a monthly credit somewhere near a savings account.
You need to know the trading rules and regulation ahead of time, i.e., whats a "free ride", "settled funds", "ask", "buy" and etc.
So take your time.
Regards"
 
Thank you. You should do ok if housing numbers are dropping today. Best of luck to you. I am waiting for the TSP people to process my transfer to ST. So, I won't be able to go long if the rally picks up this week.
 
Going to ride the rally today.

Going to ride the rally today. No Aussie, NZ, Europe, or UK players last night to keep the USM grounded. I'm going to ride out today and hope the pain begins this afternoon or tomorrow.

On this chart you can see we broke the 50 dma and then closed above it. If we break it and close below it, I will be concerned. If we confirm it I will sell and try to avoid a bear market rally. My hope is we do not do a rocket trip to $60. Can't win'em all.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p52239349535

Good notes for the bulls. JPM is rumored to up it bid. Doesn't mean the shareholders will vote for it but it will give the employees a little more value for their work. WAG beat the street.

Good luck!
 
Show-me said:
Click to expand...

Good info there. I think we may just start seeing the commodities bubble burst, too. It kind of makes me wonder if we are hitting a ceiling on the F Fund. The dollar may be forming a bottom this year. I'll have to see how things are going this morning to decide whether I'll go from F to G or not.
 
Re: Going to ride the rally today.

Show-me said:
Good notes for the bulls. JPM is rumored to up it bid. Doesn't mean the shareholders will vote for it but it will give the employees a little more value for their work.
Click to expand...

I guess that's one way to make a few guys rich. Make the world believe that the stock is only going to sell for $2, so everybody dumps it. Get a few buddies to purchase the stock on the cheap, then up the bid to $10. Five times the profit in about a week.
 
I feel like commodities are in a bubble but won't return to prior levels because of the weak dollar and demand from China and India.

The days of $250 gold, $5 silver, $30 oil, $2.50 corn, and $8 beans are over until the dollar strengthens or the Bird Flu wipes out 2/3 of the population.
 
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of existing homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in February as prices fell by the most in four decades.
Purchases increased 2.9 percent, the first gain in seven months, to an annual rate of 5.03 million, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median home value dropped 8.2 percent from a year earlier, the most since the organization began keeping records in 1968.
 
Show-me said:
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of existing homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in February as prices fell by the most in four decades.
Purchases increased 2.9 percent, the first gain in seven months, to an annual rate of 5.03 million, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median home value dropped 8.2 percent from a year earlier, the most since the organization began keeping records in 1968.
Click to expand...


Yeah, and they act like todays report was good. It's about time it stopped falling off a cliff...a minor leveling out is all. What, did they expect it to linearly extroplate to like 0 by the end of they year?

inventory went down slightly from last month but is the same as 2 months ago...and that is with prices really falling. mortgage rates are gonna skyrocket today, 10 yr yield is up huge. I still think our stimulus money will give us a "shot in the arm", but not for 1-2 months from now.
 
Corepuncher said:
Yeah, and they act like todays report was good. It's about time it stopped falling off a cliff...a minor leveling out is all. What, did they expect it to linearly extroplate to like 0 by the end of they year?

inventory went down slightly from last month but is the same as 2 months ago...and that is with prices really falling. mortgage rates are gonna skyrocket today, 10 yr yield is up huge. I still think our stimulus money will give us a "shot in the arm", but not for 1-2 months from now.
Click to expand...

I really hope you're right. I plan on buying my first house this year.
 
I still think our stimulus money will give us a "shot in the arm", but not for 1-2 months from now.
Click to expand...
Poll says only 1 in 5 will spend it on new purchases so the effect may be less than hoped. Anyone know of stats on previous similar stimulus grants?
 
Well, I'm down 4.9% and 3.4%. Dow Trans broke the magic moving average. S&P broke the 50 dma and the market took me for a ride.

I need conformation before I sell. Yes, I wish I was cash so that I could get a better entry point.
 
Show-me said:
Well, I'm down 4.9% and 3.4%. Dow Trans broke the magic moving average. S&P broke the 50 dma and the market took me for a ride.

I need conformation before I sell. Yes, I wish I was cash so that I could get a better entry point.
Click to expand...

Show-me,

I'm looking to join you for a trade, but will probably buy TWM. Almost pulled the trigger at the close, but the Bulls are on a stampede and we could gap up and head higher tomorrow morning. My short is a hedge since I still have many long positions and limited moves in most accounts.

I got the same type certified letter from the folks below that TSP is sending out, but it was a couple of years ago and they locked out two accounts. When I received the letter that was it! Money could not be moved without a paper request. TSP is being nice compared to these folks. Send in the request to IFT by the 15th of the month and they will move it on the first of the month. Sound familiar! I'm currently 3 over, but they have not locked me out again.


Beginning June 1, 2006, the Retirement Savings Fund limits each participant to ten (10) investment fund transfers in any rolling twelve-month period. You have executed 13 investment transfer(s) within the last twelve months beginning June 1, 2006.

If you move 10 times in two months you are out of moves for the next 10 months. Into the market and then back to cash is two moves.

SUCKS!!!


Anyway, we are overbought and the selling pressure will be back on and soon…..

http://www.slopeofhope.com/

Stay nimble my friend! Good luck on your trade.... I stop by and see Tim daily; he is one hell of a good trader, and yes, he is a Bear!

My longer-term positions are long and I will continue to buy dips. I reduced my longs today by 50% but I will buy-em back with weakness around 1330's or lower. The real test is coming around 1390's to 1420's.... If we head straight up that's ok too, but I think not. We shall see!
 
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Show,
I just read your post regarding your trade in SDS. As a learning process, please keep posting your results no matter how painful. I think you can recover. I also liked Robo's post regarding his watch of TWM, and the way he is approaching the markets (now overbought). Now doubt, he is quite experienced. Great asset! I am still waiting for the transfer to be effectuated. Have a good day!
 
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