Show-me Account Talk

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The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 07-Mar-08 10:21 ET

The coming week is light on scheduled events that can move the market, yet there is one item that will carry some added weight in this respect. It is the February CPI report.

The CPI data, though, won't be released until Friday. Prior to that the market will digest a number of earnings reports from the retail sector and closely-watched economic releases in the form of the Retail Sales report for February and weekly initial claims.

Further information on the upcoming economic and earnings releases can be found on our Economic Calendar and Earnings Calendar pages.
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Monday, March 10:
  • Earnings: Blackstone (BX), Six Flags (SIX), Vail Resorts (MTN), Foot Locker (FL), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV)
  • Economic Data: Wholesale Inventories
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: Credit Suisse EMEA Agrochemicals Conference, Credit Suisse Communication Equipment & Networking Conference
  • Fed Speakers: None
Tuesday, March 11:
  • Earnings: Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Kroger (KR), Collective Brands (PSS), J. Crew (JCG), Take-Two (TTWO)
  • Economic Data: Trade Balance
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: Credit Suisse Communication Equipment & Networking Conference, Credit Suisse Capital Services NY Hedge Fund Manager Roundtable
  • Fed Speakers: None
Wednesday, March 12:
  • Earnings: American Eagle (AEO), Speedway Motorsports (TRK), Talbots (TLB), Gymboree (GYMB), Men's Wearhouse (MW)
  • Economic Data: Treasury Budget
  • Events: Dept. of Energy Weekly Inventory report
  • Conferences: Credit Suisse Communication Equipment & Networking Conference
  • Fed Speakers: None
Thursday, March 13:
  • Earnings: Genesco (GCO), Aeropostale (ARO), Churchill Downs (CHDN), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN), Zumiez (ZUMZ)
  • Economic Data: Retail Sales, Initial Claims, Export Prices, Import Prices, Business Inventories
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: Bear Stearns London Healthcare Conference
  • Fed Speakers: None
Friday, March 14:
  • Earnings: AnnTaylor (ANN), Liz Claiborne (LIZ)
  • Economic Data: CPI, Preliminary Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for March
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: None
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20080307102221LookingAhead
 
The first thing that leaps out at me is NO FED SPEAKERS. A lack of data could allow the pump monkeys to gain some ground.

I plan to sell my SDS in the morning.
 
This week will be boring ED and earnings wise.

Roth: Placing a STOP at $66.25 for SDS. My reasoning is that this trade is profitable at that level and I want to give myself some room to run. Also, $66.25 is the Friday intra day low and a break below that would, in my mind, signal at the very least a relief rally.

TSP: Maintaining G fund allocation and I am getting the itch to do some C fund buying. I am trying to wait until I start seeing the 50 sma flatten or rise. More of a long term approach. How do you pick a bottom? You don't! It could go to 1200 or less. In which case by the time it hits 1300 again the 50 sma may be up.
 
Lookie there, the futures are up and there is nothing but good news on the wire. RALLY BABY! LOL

LOL! Yup, they're front running a rate cut with the Yen carry trade. Perfect setup for a morning sell-off because there aint gonna be a rate cut today. Besides, what the heck is cut going to do?:D

Bond yields are down and the F fund is already up 2 cents this morning. The bond market is the smart money.:)
 
LOL! Yup, they're front running a rate cut with the Yen carry trade. Perfect setup for a morning sell-off because there aint gonna be a rate cut today. Besides, what the heck is cut going to do?:D

Bond yields are down and the F fund is already up 2 cents this morning. The bond market is the smart money.:)


I heard a good argument as to why the Fed will go only 50 points and not 75 or 100. INFLATION IS OUT OF CONTROL and they are running out of bullets!!!! Fed Funds Rate is not the problem, the problem is write downs and lack of capital, plus fear to lend to every Tom, Dick, and Harry.

Another note is we need a conformation of these lower levels to go lower.

Earnings look like crap this morning. http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3270

CPI is the big data on Friday. Friday in a Bear market is a sellers day.
 
Another thing is that MARGIN CALLS are scaring the crap out of leveraged investors.

"Gim'me my money back, I need capital so I don't have to whore myself to the overseas investors."
 
One more note, a relief rally is certainly possible this week due to the lack of Fed speakers, ED, and free range pump monkeys. The news will rule this week. Don't fall in love with the upside.
 
I heard a good argument as to why the Fed will go only 50 points and not 75 or 100. INFLATION IS OUT OF CONTROL and they are running out of bullets!!!! Fed Funds Rate is not the problem, the problem is write downs and lack of capital, plus fear to lend to every Tom, Dick, and Harry.

What is really scary is the Fed funds futures are pricing in 100% chance of a 75bps cut and a 25% or chance of a 100bps cut.

Talking about setting themselves up for a disappointment.:D
 
What is really scary is the Fed funds futures are pricing in 100% chance of a 75bps cut and a 25% or chance of a 100bps cut.

Talking about setting themselves up for a disappointment.:D
"Rah Rah Rah, Shish kum Bah! Interest rate cut, rah rah rah!" Bah is right :cheesy:
 
The Fed is more concerned about the credit crisis (bank liquidity) than inflation at the moment. They are behind the curve and don't care about the US dollar consequences. This crisis is different than the last recession (2001) The last one was a business slowdown. This one is a consumer led slowdown. Consumer's can't use their homes as banks to withdraw from anymore. When consumer's pull in then expect something worse than a 2 qtr. recession. The Fed is in a bind and can't fight it this one very well, and Congress can't keep handing out checks (which are not going to do any good anyway). So hunker down and keep your powder dry. I'm expecting the markets to tumble more and then possibly panic selling. We need them to put in a really good bottom, then we may have a tradeable rally. Just my 2 cents. Good Luck to all!
 
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The Fed is more concerned about the credit crisis (bank liquidity) than inflation at the moment... This one is a consumer led slowdown.

This is just the tip of the iceberg.

Manufacturing jobs - gone
Service Sector jobs - gone
Oil reaching new highs

Any wonder the housing bubble bursts and is toppling the dominos?
 
But, if inflation is out of control, weak dollar, we will have trouble getting the two-thirds consumer driven income into first gear of the recovery.
 
Re: This week will be boring ED and earnings wise.

Roth: Placing a STOP at $66.25 for SDS. My reasoning is that this trade is profitable at that level and I want to give myself some room to run. Also, $66.25 is the Friday intra day low and a break below that would, in my mind, signal at the very least a relief rally.

TSP: Maintaining G fund allocation and I am getting the itch to do some C fund buying. I am trying to wait until I start seeing the 50 sma flatten or rise. More of a long term approach. How do you pick a bottom? You don't! It could go to 1200 or less. In which case by the time it hits 1300 again the 50 sma may be up.

Roth: SDS @ $64.00 Stop moved to $67 until I get a look at the morning futures.

Profit of 9.7% on a trade that originated on 3/5 and I'm itching to pull the trigger.

I'm not sure I am going to continue posting my Roth much longer as it is not TSP and is becoming laborious. My hope in posting was to convince a few folks to get their Roth's up and running.
 
Re: This week will be boring ED and earnings wise.

Roth: SDS @ $64.00 Stop moved to $67 until I get a look at the morning futures.

Profit of 9.7% on a trade that originated on 3/5 and I'm itching to pull the trigger.

I'm not sure I am going to continue posting my Roth much longer as it is not TSP and is becoming laborious. My hope in posting was to convince a few folks to get their Roth's up and running.

Show-me,
If you stop posting your Roth, I understand. So I guess I will just say thank you. Your posting of this information did get me researching a lot more in other stocks and ETF's. Although I did not open a Roth, I did increase a moneymarket account I have in Sharebuilders/ ING. If you decide to continue posting your Roth, I am sure a lot of folks will benefit. Have a great night, and thanks again.;)
 
Re: This week will be boring ED and earnings wise.

Show-me,
If you stop posting your Roth, I understand. So I guess I will just say thank you. Your posting of this information did get me researching a lot more in other stocks and ETF's. Although I did not open a Roth, I did increase a moneymarket account I have in Sharebuilders/ ING. If you decide to continue posting your Roth, I am sure a lot of folks will benefit. Have a great night, and thanks again.;)

No problem, I enjoyed it too. I just need to limit my time here and spend it in other places now that spring has sprung. :D I'm not leave'n just cutting back to get some other things done.
 
Re: This week will be boring ED and earnings wise.

Show-me,
Although I did not open a Roth, I did increase a moneymarket account I have in Sharebuilders/ ING. ;)

Hi Barney, ok you've got my curiosity up. I thought Sharebuilders was for stocks. What do you buy for a moneymarket sharebuilder account? I'm about ready to start saving again outside TSP, it's been awhile but I anticipate having my house paid off by next month so will have new cash to sock away somewhere else, woohooo! Maybe MM first in lieu of savings acct-I'll be needing to rebuild cash stash before I get to ROTH this year. Enlightment re mm account logistics w/Sharebuilders would be much appreciated.
 
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