Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

I have been in discussion for about a week with two colleagues and oil is almost a sure bet.

If the US recovers so does oil. If the US tanks the dollar tanks and up goes oil. If we have a prolonged recovery oil production is cut but emerging market will still demand oil.

Until little green men and women fall out of the sky with a viable, cheap answer to oil, oil is the commodity that drive the world. Hell, we need it even if we are idle to keep the heat on.

Lets not forget one of the larges oil field in the world is to our south and the production is falling off at a alarming rate. Mexico is one of our top five suppliers and in a few years they will have to cut us off for self preservation.

Drillers have quit drilling, marginal well through the corn belt are being shut back down due to cheap prices. There is 80 million barrels floating in the ocean waiting for the price to recover. OPEC nations are doing unplanned and unannounced shut downs due to lack of storage available.

It will be like a rubber band effect. Too much oil, shut everything down, not enough oil, slowly restart production. Perfect way to drive the price up.

Trivia - 1 barrel is 42 gallons of oil.

We use 20 million barrels a day, got oil?

 

[CountryBoy]

I don't play any individual stock anymore, one piece of bad data or a rouge player can cause me much pain. ETF's spread out the risk for me.

Yeah I know you don't play individual stocks anymore, I was just interested in your view regarding the long term value of oil. Thanks

 

[CountryBoy]

Show, I'm hearing a lot of market noise about buying metals. I know you were big into silver a while back. Are you thinking about buying silver again?

Lady

I'm sorrry to butt in,

But I'm lookingt add to my metal positions, just not silver or gold, more alongthe line of copper and other metals, via PCU and BHP. I didn't mean to intrude.

CB

 

[Show-me]

Show, I'm hearing a lot of market noise about buying metals. I know you were big into silver a while back. Are you thinking about buying silver again?

Lady

I have a few hundred ounces silver that I bought at $6 to $10 a ounce a few years ago and that is all I plan on buying for now.

Metals would be a hedge against inflation, but I would not own paper metal. I would get the real stuff. There are internet rumors about there note being enough metal in the COMEX to cover the paper trading. GLD and SLV both require physical metal on site to cover the ETF's so if I was to buy paper metal those two would be it. My advice is to stay away from the ETN paper metals. It is all paper trading, if the company goes under and you hold their ETN you are wiped out.

Things that effect precious metal prices.

Inflation or dollar strength.

Demand, whether industrial or personal as a hedge against inflation.

Availability, how much is physically out there.

Inflation is coming give it time. Industrial demand is weak now but personal ownership is at a high and other emerging market want to own it too. Availability is low for coin silver, the US Mint stopped sales for a while and you will pay a huge premium on EBay for coin bullion.

 

[Show-me]

Here is a good list of ETF's, be careful as there are ETN in the mix too.

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/commodity-etfs.html

I like agriculture ETF's right now. People got to eat no matter what and grain is cheap again. And, if the dollar gets weak again that adds to the profit.

 

[justbizness45]

Inflation is coming give it time. Industrial demand is weak now but personal ownership is at a high and other emerging market want to own it too. Availability is low for coin silver, the US Mint stopped sales for a while and you will pay a huge premium on EBay for coin bullion.

I picked up a couple pounds of coin silver from a guy who was in a financial bind. I am just going to hold it for now. The EBay statement is dead on. I have't been able to buy in a auction for close to spot for several weeks. People are paying way too much for what is selling. They are buying anyway.

 

[justbizness45]

Here is a good list of ETF's, be careful as there are ETN in the mix too.

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/commodity-etfs.html

I like agriculture ETF's right now. People got to eat no matter what and grain is cheap again. And, if the dollar gets weak again that adds to the profit.

Oscar's week end video indicates he thinks the will be a run up in commodities.

 

[XL-entLady]

... I'm lookingt add to my metal positions, just not silver or gold, more alongthe line of copper and other metals, via PCU and BHP. ...
CB

I have a few hundred ounces silver that I bought at $6 to $10 a ounce a few years ago and that is all I plan on buying for now.

Metals would be a hedge against inflation, but I would not own paper metal. I would get the real stuff. There are internet rumors about there note being enough metal in the COMEX to cover the paper trading. GLD and SLV both require physical metal on site to cover the ETF's so if I was to buy paper metal those two would be it. My advice is to stay away from the ETN paper metals. It is all paper trading, if the company goes under and you hold their ETN you are wiped out.
.....

CB and Show,
This was exactly the information I was looking for. My thanks to you both!

Lady

 

[Show-me]

I did a ton of research yesterday, reading, videos, charts, prospectus, news, charts, charts, charts.

The dollar, inflation, lack of credit, real estate are all the threat. Some think gold is going to $2000, some think real estate is yet to find bottom, some think the next shoe to drop is commercial RE. Here are some ETF's to think about.

UGL, AGQ, and SRS. I do not own them, just bringing attention to them. Also, more in-depth discussion will be in Tom's new forum ETFTalk. I will try to ween myself into just discussing TSP here and ETF's there.

http://www.etftalk.com/forum/index.php

 

[Show-me]

How to destroy a country, by Iceland.

​

 

[nasa1974]

How to destroy a country, by Iceland.

​

Thanks Show-me. Interesting video.

 

[hessian]

Here is a good list of ETF's, be careful as there are ETN in the mix too.

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/commodity-etfs.html

I like agriculture ETF's right now. People got to eat no matter what and grain is cheap again. And, if the dollar gets weak again that adds to the profit.

Hi Show-me:
For the "Un-Initiated, is there a simple explanation of the difference of an ETN vs. the ETFs.
Looking into this, I get that it seems to be a Security/Note for a Fund - like purchasing a Bond for a particular Fund?
Is there a negative drawback with these? :embarrest:
http://keyinvest.ibb.ubs.com/e-tracs/index.shtml

 

[Show-me]

Hi Show-me:
For the "Un-Initiated, is there a simple explanation of the difference of an ETN vs. the ETFs.
Looking into this, I get that it seems to be a Security/Note for a Fund - like purchasing a Bond for a particular Fund?
Is there a negative drawback with these? :embarrest:
http://keyinvest.ibb.ubs.com/e-tracs/index.shtml

A ETN is a promise to pay, no assets.

A ETF is backed by actual assets.

I had a very nasty tracking error on a ETN DXO and I ended up not making the money I should have because as oil was going up DXO was not and at on time it was going down as oil went up. I bounced it against its twin inverse ETN, DTO, which is a oil short. Both ETN's showed down at the same time. Duetche Bank was cooking the books and possible skimming money off of it at traders expense.

Screw me once shame on you, screw me twice shame on me. I won't give them twice.

 

[Show-me]

If the investment house of a ETN goes under you have nothing. With a ETF you have the underlying assets.

 

[hessian]

If the investment house of a ETN goes under you have nothing. With a ETF you have the underlying assets.

Terrific simple explanation! Trying to learn from your posts and others, about broader investing possibilities. Personally, I'm still being cautious until I learn more. You seem to draw others that are knowedgeable on this into these discussions. I expect that many of us, including myself, are beginning to learn from this! Much Thanks!

 

[Show-me]

My pleasure, another way to put it is that a ETN assumes more risk as it is a note based on the faith and good standing of the company issuing it. I'm not saying ETN's are all evil, just carry much more risk and you have ETF's that do the same job with less risk.

 

[Show-me]

Just picked up a few UCO at 10.00 and I will place a limit order for more at less.

I am getting a bit nervous about UCO and oil in general. From a pure chart reading it keep hitting its low and the rule is the more times it hits support the better the chance it will break through it to the down side.

 

[Show-me]

More talk about bank closing and or being Nationalized. Common stock will get beat down hard. No solid details from POTUS so I am leary. I still own a $60 position with a $75 limit sell.

 

[Show-me]

Got some more at 9.60, now I am getting worried.

 

[Show-me]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJH__3T7WPg&eurl=http://www.etftalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=315

http://www.etftalk.com/forum/search.php?searchid=193