1/14/13
It was a rather slow day on Friday with most of the indices finishing near the flat line, but stocks did battle back from early losses and finished near the highs of the day at +17-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 149"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has some short-term resistance just above as it is about to test the September highs. The trend is up, new daily highs are being made, and the bears seem to have gone into hibernation. That doesn't mean new gains will be easy. There is a lot of bullish sentiment out there so the market has many victims lined up for disappointment - something the market likes to do. But right now the bears, and the bulls waiting for a pullback, are the ones being disappointed.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term view of the S&P 500 shows where there could be some more serious resistance and that would be near 1500 - not too far away. Since the market tends to move in one direction longer than would seem reasonable, I can see a move above this resistance (like in 2011) just so more investors get trapped in stocks before any major decline.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
In the short-term the Dow seems to be up against resistance, but if you squint your eyes, that could also be considered the neckline of a bullish inverted and head and shoulders pattern.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq still has the ominous open gap down near where the index closed on December 31. We have shown that in 1987 we had a similar gap to start a new year but it took until October before it was filled. For this reason I am not overly concerned about it in the short-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I'm more interested right now, in whether the breakout from the bull flag (red) will hold.
I like what I see in the charts and with congress more focused on feuding over gun control laws, we may enjoy a little more bullishness, but it's only a matter of time before the front page headlines are back on the debt ceiling negotiations and I'm afraid the market will once again breather in and out based on every word out of Washington.
The talk of the platinum $1,000,000,000,000 coin is still circulation as a possible way to pay down some debt, and if somehow this comes to fruition, it will certainly have an impact on the markets. It will hurt the dollar for sure, which tends to raise prices, but that would not only be the prices of stocks, but also food, fuel, and other commodities, and your paycheck will likely not budge. It seems absurd, but I guess I better read more about it before completely dismissing it. I want to be prepared in case the go ahead is given.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
It was a rather slow day on Friday with most of the indices finishing near the flat line, but stocks did battle back from early losses and finished near the highs of the day at +17-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 149"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has some short-term resistance just above as it is about to test the September highs. The trend is up, new daily highs are being made, and the bears seem to have gone into hibernation. That doesn't mean new gains will be easy. There is a lot of bullish sentiment out there so the market has many victims lined up for disappointment - something the market likes to do. But right now the bears, and the bulls waiting for a pullback, are the ones being disappointed.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term view of the S&P 500 shows where there could be some more serious resistance and that would be near 1500 - not too far away. Since the market tends to move in one direction longer than would seem reasonable, I can see a move above this resistance (like in 2011) just so more investors get trapped in stocks before any major decline.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
In the short-term the Dow seems to be up against resistance, but if you squint your eyes, that could also be considered the neckline of a bullish inverted and head and shoulders pattern.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq still has the ominous open gap down near where the index closed on December 31. We have shown that in 1987 we had a similar gap to start a new year but it took until October before it was filled. For this reason I am not overly concerned about it in the short-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I'm more interested right now, in whether the breakout from the bull flag (red) will hold.
I like what I see in the charts and with congress more focused on feuding over gun control laws, we may enjoy a little more bullishness, but it's only a matter of time before the front page headlines are back on the debt ceiling negotiations and I'm afraid the market will once again breather in and out based on every word out of Washington.
The talk of the platinum $1,000,000,000,000 coin is still circulation as a possible way to pay down some debt, and if somehow this comes to fruition, it will certainly have an impact on the markets. It will hurt the dollar for sure, which tends to raise prices, but that would not only be the prices of stocks, but also food, fuel, and other commodities, and your paycheck will likely not budge. It seems absurd, but I guess I better read more about it before completely dismissing it. I want to be prepared in case the go ahead is given.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
