Sentiment Survey Results

[flalaw97]

I just took my first weekly sentiment survey. I was wondering if when you post the results you could add a column for the week prior that showed whether the week was a bear or bull week?

 

[tsptalk]

I'll give it some thought. Thanks.

 

[SoonerCaniac]

Tom, is there any information explaining the TSP Talk Sentiment Survey? I keep seeing references to the survey and I don't understand how it's calculated or who participates. My website and forum searching hasn't been very successful, outside of https://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php. Is there some information around here that explains what it all means? Thanks in advance!

 

[tsptalk]

It's not scientific in any way. I basically post the survey on Thursday mornings on the home page, and take it down later that night. I ask people if they are bullish or bearish for the following week. I also email out the link to anyone who wants on the list - although we do exclude premium members from that email just so we don't get back the sentiment of our own services since it may be biased.

People can use the info however they want, but in general when sentiment type surveys are showing extremes, it's generally an indication that things may be about to change since retail investor surveys are considered "dumb money" indicators.

In more recent years I have noticed that our survey has become more of a "smart money" indicator, for whatever reason, meaning, it has been fairly accurate and not as much of a contrarian indicator.

There's not much more to it than that. The AAII has a similar survey and it is also considered a "dumb money" survey, and the results are whatever someone wants to make of it.

 

[SoonerCaniac]

It's not scientific in any way. I basically post the survey on Thursday mornings on the home page, and take it down later that night. I ask people if they are bullish or bearish for the following week. I also email out the link to anyone who wants on the list - although we do exclude premium members from that email just so we don't get back the sentiment of our own services since it may be biased.

Thank you very much for your time Tom; this is really what I was looking for. I've never noticed the survey on the home page; I don't visit the home page that much since I have my preferred links bookmarked. I see people talking about it but never really understood how someone accessed it or participated in it. Since I am a premium member it sounds like I wouldn't be able to participate anyway, which makes perfect sense. Now I feel a little less ignorant, so it's a good day.

Have a great weekend!
SC