Originally posted 2/2/2011
I'm in the S-fund. All in. I'm vacillating between holding in S or following the Sentiment Survey for 2011. It's only my 3rd year contributing to the TSP, so I don't have a whole lot to lose at this point. I'm going to take an aggressive approach for the next 4-5 years. I think the U.S.'s economic recovery is just starting to gain momentum, so I expect the current upward trend to continue, though probably not at the rate it has in 2009-10.
This was the first post in my account thread, over 4 years ago. I was still 35 at the time. In the back of my mind, I thought I'd give myself until I turned 40 to try to educate myself on the stock market and investing/trading for retirement. At the beginning, I was fascinated and absorbed as much information as I could from the various seasoned posters on this site. I've been fortunate to have followed TspTalk.com since back when Coolhand posted a daily blog, Tom let us have the Sentiment Survey for free, and I even recall when Intrepid Timer was Intrepid "Trader" and had his account on the AT for everyone to follow.
At first I had a rocky start, holding S throughout most of the summer of 2011. But I bounced back and had a big 2012, beating all the funds and finishing near the top of the AT. That gave me a false sense of confidence early on, and although I continued to do well in 2013, who didn't? The S fund was up 40% or something. Over time, I've found myself losing the desire and interest to delve into charts and data on a daily basis, my trades are based more on my gut than on any solid rationale or "system". In other words, I'm just gambling with my retirement.
So, on the cusp of 40, I'm thinking of pitching it all in and subscribing to a premium service. I'm not certain yet, but it's something I'm thinking about. I'm not in any hurry. I'll give myself a little more time. I hear Birchtree has a pretty good service, and it's free. Maybe I'll give that a try.
To all my Catholic peeps, have a "Good" Friday - eat a Five Guys burger for me on Saturday! Hopefully I'll get to have one this summer (though we've greatly reduced our consumption of 4 legged animals in our household recently). Have a nice weekend everyone!