Sensei's account talk

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burro, when I was stationed in Ohio and frequently working in Japan I used to think of Japan as 13 hours ahead of Ohio which meant that even if it was tomorrow in Japan it was never yesterday anywhere unless you were in Japan then it could be yesterday in Ohio.


This meant I had to phone in the sitrep at 2100 from Japan and check in again at 0500 the next day for yesterdays instructions to implement today.


I hope this helps.


Also if you are sitting on a porch in Alaska looking in to Russia you are always looking at tomorrow.


I think this means that Sensei knows the closing prices when it is only 3AM where you and I are so shouldn't he be sharing?


PO
 
I never mentioned anything about Ms Palin or any of her family. Just sayin.


Anyway just think about Japan/Okinawa as always being in the future, never the pasture. The International Date Line has nothing to do with that 900 number you may have.


One other thing burro, don't go changin' just to please me. Don't ever change dude. We love you just the way you are.


PO
 
To further confuse you, we don't change clocks for daylight savings over here. So, what time is it NOW?!? Hehe.

Actually, it's real easy. When the NYSE opens at 9:30AM, it's 10:30PM here (during daylight savings - during standard time, it's 11:30PM). So I can now usually check the open before I go to bed. During standard daylight time, I usually zonk out before the market opens.
 
Sensei said:
To further confuse you, we don't change clocks for daylight savings over here. So, what time is it NOW?!? Hehe.

Actually, it's real easy. When the NYSE opens at 9:30AM, it's 10:30PM here (during daylight savings - during standard time, it's 11:30PM). So I can now usually check the open before I go to bed. During standard daylight time, I usually zonk out before the market opens.
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Ouch, I'm glad I don't live there, I'd never get any sleep :D

Would be nice if i could somewhere where the markets open up just after I get home :)
 
Yeah, it was apparently summer in Ohio When I was making these commutes. So I believe that it is now 1021 AM in Okinawa and always will be 16 hours difference as Arizona doesn't believe in DST either.

When not contemplating the time difference we occupied our time answering the question "where in the United States are you from" to which we would answer Ohio the response usually being "ohayo gozaimasu" but where are you from in the states?


Fun times.

​PO
 
Somewhat despite my self and my efforts at discipline, I decided to sell on Friday. Thursday's gains were evaporating, sentiment was decidedly bullish, and the herd is positioned roughly 2 to 1 in stocks. I just felt like it was the right time to be a contrarian. Reading most of the comments on this site, though, I am seeing a good argument for calling a bottom to this little pullback. If nothing else, certainly the weekly chart of the S&P should be suggesting a rebound. We'll see. I have one more IFT to get me back into stocks this month.
 
Sensei said:
Somewhat despite my self and my efforts at discipline, I decided to sell on Friday. Thursday's gains were evaporating, sentiment was decidedly bullish, and the herd is positioned roughly 2 to 1 in stocks. I just felt like it was the right time to be a contrarian. Reading most of the comments on this site, though, I am seeing a good argument for calling a bottom to this little pullback. If nothing else, certainly the weekly chart of the S&P should be suggesting a rebound. We'll see. I have one more IFT to get me back into stocks this month.
Click to expand...

Smart move, you're in a great place to have that extra IFT :)
 
I wouldn't say that. Your reason for exiting sounded reasonable to me. Right now I think we have too much volatility to consider 0.5% in the futures to indicate a trend. Truth is we could go either way from here. The big market mover this week is going to be the Fed Announcement. I'm thinking it's already been priced in, but expect news driven events to send it on a rollercoaster ride anyway. Don't go second guessing yourself now. There will be too many ups and downs to keep kicking yourself.
 
Sensei said:
Futures up half a percent right now. By "smart move", I assume you meant, "way to go dumb-azz". :notrust:
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Lol I wouldn't go so far as to rub salt in today's wound, I only meant to say you still have options with the 1 IFT. Now if you had exited the month early without an option to get back in...I still wouldn't call you a dumb-azz, but I might think it :D
 
Don't mind me, I'm just trying to play it cool with my head in the sand while stock prices soar.

I'm trying not to be cynical as the market moves on without me, but it does seem that REAL things in this world are becoming undervalued. Namely, oil & precious metals. Conversely, imaginary things like stocks and the dollar are becoming overvalued. I guess the Euro and Yen are undervalued though, and they're imaginary too. Anyway, at some point the scales will have to tip back in the other direction. It might take a year or more, but for now I'm throwing money at oil and silver in my sharebuilder account. I'm completely upside down in that thing. I'd probably have been better off with government frigging bonds (can you believe I actually own some of those too!?), but the damage is done, so I'll keep tossing money down the hole. Someday I'm sure things will turn around - unless the world suddenly makes a genuine effort to embrace alternative energy... Oh crap, I'm screwed aren't I?...
 
I was looking into nabbing a bunch of gas/oil stocks on my ShareBuilder account as well. I was looking at how far GDP has fallen and it's the farthest it's been down in years.
 
From 3/16:
Sensei said:
Somewhat despite my self and my efforts at discipline, I decided to sell on Friday. Thursday's gains were evaporating, sentiment was decidedly bullish, and the herd is positioned roughly 2 to 1 in stocks....
Click to expand...

One of the premiums must be spot on, as about 8-10% of the herd shifted back to the sidelines a couple days ago. Noting this, my conclusion is that Ocean's List is no longer a reliable measure of the dumb money. In fact, maybe now it's more of a smart money barometer. My point is not to try and undermine the PS's, just that I don't know if it's a good idea to make contrarian moves against the AT anymore.
 
I thought the PSMs didn't show up on the standard IFT list. There are 2015 listings with and without PSMs. Seams to me you could use the data without the PSMs. Maybe I misunderstand what data you are really using. What is this Ocean's List I keep hearing about anyways? Is that a PS?
 
Cactus said:
I thought the PSMs didn't show up on the standard IFT list. There are 2015 listings with and without PSMs. Seams to me you could use the data without the PSMs. Maybe I misunderstand what data you are really using. What is this Ocean's List I keep hearing about anyways? Is that a PS?
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TSP Talk AutoTracker

Here's the link. I think you can also get to it from somewhere on the home page. I have it pasted on my visitor page for easy access. It includes the allocation of the overall herd. You don't get to see individual members.
 
Thanks for the link. I didn't know that page existed. You learn something new everyday.

I see the G/F/C/S/I & L Funds are not in the totals but the PSMs are. Your point is well taken.

Another fly in the ointment are all the systems people are tracking out there on the AT in addition to their own account. Maybe that is all still dumb money, but I would think it's still got to effect the total somehow.
 
Cactus said:
I see the G/F/C/S/I & L Funds are not in the totals but the PSMs are.
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"Pay services and funds such as G/F/C/S/I and Life Cycle funds are NOT part of this list"

[Underlines added] Am I missing something? Seems that Pay services are not part of the list. As the list is updated daily and also lists the allocations of the top 5; seems to make sense that PSM's would not be listed? Or am I missing something?
 
userque said:
"Pay services and funds such as G/F/C/S/I and Life Cycle funds are NOT part of this list"

[Underlines added] Am I missing something? Seems that Pay services are not part of the list. As the list is updated daily and also lists the allocations of the top 5; seems to make sense that PSM's would not be listed? Or am I missing something?
Click to expand...
The funds and pay services themselves are excluded, but each individual member on the AT is included, washed or unwashed.
 
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