Sensei's account talk

[Sensei]

Aloha! I've been mostly ignoring the stock market as I'm on vacation with my family. We're coming to the end of a great week in Hawaii. My wife is currently in great physical shape despite having had surgery to remove breast cancer only a month ago. We're enjoying the here and now, as she faces about 4 months of chemotherapy immediately after we return home.

I'm still in the G fund. Sentiment is bullish, but the herd is only about half in. I'm hoping for a little downside pressure next week, which would give me a chance to buy in at a discounted price with a July IFT. Hoping for a shot on Wednesday or Thursday.

 

[GUCHI]

Sensei glad you and your wife are taking life by the horns and running with it. I know it can bedifficult at times,but one must move forward and don't look back. Best to you all and I will be thinking about you. I heard akadama is a cure all heehee. Guchi

 

[TSPIntel]

Sensei, I am glad U Wife is doing great. I am also glad U enjoyed U deserved vacation. U are doing real good on the Auto-Tracker. Hope the wins continue blowing your way.

 

[Sensei]

I dove head over heels into this mess. 100% S fund to start off the new month. I am not overly optimistic, but I'm hoping for some type of bounce to get price back within the
bollinger bands.

I remember once someone on this site posted the advice that you can't take the IFT limits into account when deciding your allocation. You have to just decide what is the right thing to do at the moment, then live or deal with your decision down the road. I thought long and hard about that, and respectfully disagree. The rules, for better or for worse, are the rules, and we have to learn how to play the game within their parameters. If there were no IFT limitations, I would have waited another day to see how things play out before deciding on a new position. However, without that luxury, I had to decide whether I stay on the sidelines to start August, thereby limiting myself to only one chance to be in stocks during the next month. Or do I go all in with a July IFT, taking a risk on catching a falling knife and possibly taking on a loss. I opted for the latter. I probably would not have been so aggressive if I didn't already have a commanding lead over the stock funds YTD. Generally speaking, I like to be bullish on stocks, and prefer to be exposed more often than not. So, the move suits my psychology. That said, this might be a very short swim.

Sensei, I am glad U Wife is doing great. I am also glad U enjoyed U deserved vacation. U are doing real good on the Auto-Tracker. Hope the wins continue blowing your way.

Thanks Intel! I wish you luck as well - but only when you're TSP allocation matches mine.

 

[Sensei]

Oh, remember when I posted this chart, with the speculation on the middle finger formation in the Wilshire 4500?

View attachment 29460

Here's how it has played out thus far.



Where will things go from here?

 

[PessOptimist]

Hi Sensei or Hai! Sensei.

Either way (and don't try to improve on the 17 words I learned while TDY there long ago) this may be a new technical analysis formation I hope they name it the Sensei finger.

PO

 

[Sensei]

Hi Sensei or Hai! Sensei.

Either way (and don't try to improve on the 17 words I learned while TDY there long ago) this may be a new technical analysis formation I hope they name it the Sensei finger.

PO

Arigato, PO-san. As much as I'd like to take credit, it's a well-noted formation. Basically a head-and-shoulders, but pointier up top. JTH has made mention of the middle finger in some of his past posts.

 

[JTH]

Arigato, PO-san. As much as I'd like to take credit, it's a well-noted formation. Basically a head-and-shoulders, but pointier up top. JTH has made mention of the middle finger in some of his past posts.

Lol the funny thing is the MFF is sort of a joke, but it's turned out to live a life of its own, I think of the 3-4 you and I have noticed, they have all lead to lower prices.

 

[Sensei]

I'm due a salary step increase at the conclusion of the summer. I usually take the opportunity to add 1% to my TSP contribution. This past year, though, I took out a loan that I've been repaying. To me, the difference between increasing my contribution 1% or using that 1% toward repayment of the loan is negligible. However, maybe one of you sees something I don't. Any opinions as to which is the better route to go?

 

[blueroadster]

I'd increase contributions another 1% or more. Additional contributions are pre-tax so you have more buying power. If needed, you could then also re-ammortize your TSP loan to reduce your post-tax repayments.

 

[Sensei]

I'm due a salary step increase at the conclusion of the summer. I usually take the opportunity to add 1% to my TSP contribution. This past year, though, I took out a loan that I've been repaying. To me, the difference between increasing my contribution 1% or using that 1% toward repayment of the loan is negligible. However, maybe one of you sees something I don't. Any opinions as to which is the better route to go?

I'd increase contributions another 1% or more. Additional contributions are pre-tax so you have more buying power. If needed, you could then also re-ammortize your TSP loan to reduce your post-tax repayments.

Thanks blueroadster! That's a very good point. However, I'm actually trying to transition away from the standard TSP and into the Roth TSP. Right now I'm putting 9% into the standard, and 6% into the Roth. If it hadn't been for the loan, my progression this summer would be to go 8% into each.

I then thought up a good reason to pay off the loan quicker - it would allow me to take out another loan sooner! :nuts: Actually, I hope I never have to take a loan from my TSP again, but you never know what kind of junk life is going to spill on the road ahead of you. It's nice to have the security of a no-questions-asked loan just a few mouse clicks away.

So, I think I'll re-amortize to pay down the loan, then get back to my scheduled increases.

 

[Sensei]

In the 1-year chart of the SPX below, I've circled 4 significant violations of the lower Bollinger Band. You can see that each of the first 3 not only signaled a snap-back rally, but each cleanly passed through the 50 day SMA. The first 2 continued to the upper BB with very little resistance. Number 3 floundered around a bit, but stayed above the 50 SMA.



So will this time be different? Personally, I am expecting the rally to take us back to the 50 day SMA. I'll get cautious there, though. The herd here at TSPTalk seems to be buying this dip. 44% were on the sidelines on 7/31, and the fresh IFTs and lower prices of August inspired 2% to jump into stocks. Bottom line, dumb money is still bullish on this market.

 

[Sensei]

... The herd here at TSPTalk seems to be buying this dip. 44% were on the sidelines on 7/31, and the fresh IFTs and lower prices of August inspired 2% to jump into stocks. Bottom line, dumb money is still bullish on this market.

After checking today's stats, I see that now only 36.5% remain on the sidelines. Get off my wave!

 

[nnuut]

I'm waiting for confirmation, is that stupid? What if it's a BULL trap?

 

[Sensei]

The only thing of note I have to add today is that the Nikkei closed down 1% each of the last two days, while the US markets have stalled. The foreign markets look oversold. Maybe a bounce? Of course, close to 65% of you are positioned for it, so it probably won't happen. :notrust:

 

[Sensei]

Below is a bottle of "rare sugar" in syrup form. It tastes like sugar (I used it to sweeten my latte this evening - I can vouch for the authentic flavor), but supposedly does not fatten you with calories. It is supposedly natural, unlike the chemical sweeteners we've seen in the past. For the moment, it is being marketed only in Japan. Here's a link to an article for more details:

'Rare sugar' that stops fat buildup making waves in food industry - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun

So, I was hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and pick up some shares of a company that produces it, before it crosses the Pacific. Only problem is, I can't seem to find any stock tickers. The bottle I have says the company that produces it is called "RareSweet", but a Google search produces nothing in the way of a stock ticker. You will also find references online to a company called Matsutani, with a US branch. However, I can't find a stock ticker for them either.

If anyone has better detective skills and would like to help me investigate, I'd be very appreciative.

 

[Sensei]

I went to the G fund, COB. I don't feel extremely confident about the move, considering how many others are heading for the exits at the same time. There is clearly room to go higher, but I've caught close to 2% in the last two weeks. The C fund appears in better position to continue higher than the S fund, as it is above the 50 day SMA with about 2% more to go before the BB overhead. The S fund needs to clear the 50 SMA, and even if it does, the BB is only about 1% overhead.

One IFT left, so I'm looking for lower prices for a re-entry. I suspect things will move a little sideways from here though - just to mess with us dumb money traders.

 

[Sensei]

Futures are up HARD while I'm left sucking my thumb in the G fund. That's what I get for moving in the same direction as the herd.

 

[Cactus]

Better safe than sorry. You don't want to be sitting at the bottom of the AT with me.

 

[Sensei]

Capitulation IFT to S fund.