Sensei's account talk

[Birchtree]

I think if you have confidence you should DCA all the way to $24 and try to make even more money. But remember that bull markets have a tendency to make us all look like geniuses including myself. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Sensei]

Futures look bleak. It seems the old strategy of being invested on the first day of the month has not worked well for the past 6 months or so. However, in perusing the SPX chart over the last year, we have not had a pullback without first touching the upper bollinger band. The current rally has yet to touch the BB. I think there will be a time to sell in March, but I don't think today is the day.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Holy moley! PEIX up over 65%!!??!! I have $600 invested in it at $4.19/share. Now worth $14.97/share. Wow...

Sell

 

[Sensei]

About an hour before the opening bell, I saw the spike in futures and thought the indices would hit the upper BB during the day. I made an IFT to 50G/50F. Turns out the day was just flat, so maybe the rally will come Monday. At any rate, I think bullishness is creeping back, which isn't good for the wall of worry, so I'm going to hope for a pullback. If it doesn't materialize, well, I still have one more IFT to chase gains.

I also found time to go through my grandfather's old silver coins last night. Not quite the marketable treasure I expected. Some pretty cool stuff - a penny from 1826 being the oldest thing. There were two 1934 Liberty Peace silver dollars with the "S" mint mark from San Francisco. According to a couple websites I checked, there weren't many printed at the SF mint, so they are worth BV (bullion value) + $1200!!! BUT, one of the sites only gave the +$1200 value to the coins in mint condition - if they're circulated (as mine are) they're only worth about an extra 45 bucks. LOL. Anyway, I wouldn't sell them even if they were valuable. A lot of the coins are from the WWII era. My G-pa was in New Guinea during the war, and he collected a lot of foreign coins from the era/region. I've got a 1943 New Guinea schilling (silver) and a 1942 copper penny from the Nederlandsch Indies (Indonesia), along with some Filipino and Australian coins. Senitmental value, really. Too bad he didn't end up with any Japanese coins. I guess he wasn't there to swap wampum with them. :/

All right, have a good weekend!

 

[jpcavin]

Holy moley! PEIX up over 65%!!??!! I have $600 invested in it at $4.19/share. Now worth $14.97/share. Wow...

It should do well through the summer months and possibly higher when corn prices come down. Some analyst are predicting $30 by 2015. I'm watching it closely to see what it does in the next couple of days. I already took back my initial investment so either way it's a win win.

 

[Sensei]

Search "3.11" on Yahoo!Japan today and they'll donate 10 yen to the Tohoku relief effort. Click the link, scroll down to the bottom, and hit the search button. Easy.

3.11

 

[konakathy]

Search "3.11" on Yahoo!Japan today and they'll donate 10 yen to the Tohoku relief effort. Click the link, scroll down to the bottom, and hit the search button. Easy.

3.11

Roger Wilco How far are you from Fukushima? Are you concerned about the radiation leaks? You read so much about the radiation poisoning in the ocean and how it may be pretty bad for all of us in the long term. They say it's supposed to hit the west coast sometime this month.

 

[Sensei]

Roger Wilco How far are you from Fukushima? Are you concerned about the radiation leaks? You read so much about the radiation poisoning in the ocean and how it may be pretty bad for all of us in the long term. They say it's supposed to hit the west coast sometime this month.

Okinawa is 1100 miles south of Fukushima, and the tides flow West to East (I believe), so you probably have more risk of radiation than I do. On the other hand, we get yellow dust and PM2.5 from China here. :/

My wife's family is from the neighboring prefecture though, and a good friend of mine works for the #2 Fukushima power plant (the one NOT devestated by the tsunami). I was in contact with him for a few months after the disaster, but he's since stopped replying to messages from me or our mutual friends. I think depression/PTSD is a very real but unreported after-effect of the 3.11 disasters. Recovery is a slow process...

 

[Sensei]

BUMP

Search "3.11" on Yahoo!Japan today and they'll donate 10 yen to the Tohoku relief effort. Click the link, scroll down to the bottom, and hit the search button. Easy.

3.11

 

[JTH]

Search "3.11" on Yahoo!Japan today and they'll donate 10 yen to the Tohoku relief effort. Click the link, scroll down to the bottom, and hit the search button. Easy.

3.11

Done!

 

[Sensei]

#45 on the AT. Handballer! I'm comin' to getcha!

Seriously, though, it looks like closing the SPY gap would coincide with the 20 day SMA, which sounds like a good place to bounce. What concerns me, though, is that the herd is ever so slightly moving into stocks while the market is floundering. Dip buying. Today, 48.04% in G/F. I'd like to see us get more bearish before buying in again.

 

[JTH]

#45 on the AT. Handballer! I'm comin' to getcha!

Seriously, though, it looks like closing the SPY gap would coincide with the 20 day SMA, which sounds like a good place to bounce. What concerns me, though, is that the herd is ever so slightly moving into stocks while the market is floundering. Dip buying. Today, 48.04% in G/F. I'd like to see us get more bearish before buying in again.

Congrats on the Top 50, I just looked at the AT for the 1st time in over a week, here let me give you a hand...

View attachment 27543

 

[konakathy]

Okinawa is 1100 miles south of Fukushima, and the tides flow West to East (I believe), so you probably have more risk of radiation than I do. On the other hand, we get yellow dust and PM2.5 from China here. :/

My wife's family is from the neighboring prefecture though, and a good friend of mine works for the #2 Fukushima power plant (the one NOT devestated by the tsunami). I was in contact with him for a few months after the disaster, but he's since stopped replying to messages from me or our mutual friends. I think depression/PTSD is a very real but unreported after-effect of the 3.11 disasters. Recovery is a slow process...

I'm sorry to hear about your friend, I hope you can reconnect with him.

Depression/PTSD is very real and painful. Been through it twice with near death experiences and both times it took every ounce of strength in me to overcome it. I never took drugs, just started eating healthier, lots of exercise, prayer and the determination NOT to let anything or any one control me and my happiness. Not easy...support and love from friends and family is a key, also.

But now you say radiation is gonna get me! Blah! Not me...it'll be a shark, or a crazy roller coaster ride !!!

 

[Handballer]

#45 on the AT. Handballer! I'm comin' to getcha!Seriously, though, it looks like closing the SPY gap would coincide with the 20 day SMA, which sounds like a good place to bounce. What concerns me, though, is that the herd is ever so slightly moving into stocks while the market is floundering. Dip buying. Today, 48.04% in G/F. I'd like to see us get more bearish before buying in again.

I hear you. Looks like it may happen today.

 

[Sensei]

Each of the last two days, the S fund has earned 0.10% more than the W4500. :suspicious: It's a conspiracy to keep Handballer ahead of me on the AT. :notrust:

The Wilshire bounced off the 20 day SMA. SPY didn't quite get down that low, and still has part of the gap to fill. Oh, and you guys are getting more bullish. Now 47.33% on the side.

 

[Sensei]

... and you guys are getting more bullish. Now 47.33% on the side.

Personally, I find it interesting that the market is in a short-term downtrend, and the Herd is getting more bullish in their allocation. Today, 46.65% in funds G & F. More and more of you think this dip is a buying opportunity. The question is, do you feel lucky? Well, do you punk?

 

[Sensei]

Been down with the flu all week. Missed the rally. I'm tempted to chase, but bullishness is rising slowly. I think this one will be shorter-lived than most are expecting. But then again, it's people like me who make the wall of worry.

 

[Sensei]

I was fooled by the DAX and S&P futures before going to bed last night. Futures were up about 0.50% and climbing, so I figured we were in for another run up. So I fired off an IFT and didn't wake myself up to check at the deadline. For better or for worse, I am now 100% S, like everyone else and their dog here on TSP Talk. I think this might be a short trip. The intention was to get in at the end of the month, but being invested at the beginning of the month has not been the best strategy so far this year. We'll see.

 

[Sensei]

Tremendous self-loathing right now. I can't figure out why I zigged when everyone else was zigging. Not my style. I need to reflect, recalibrate, and find a way to move forward.

 

[JTH]

Tremendous self-loathing right now. I can't figure out why I zigged when everyone else was zigging. Not my style. I need to reflect, recalibrate, and find a way to move forward.

Lol, the closer you are to the top, the more disgusting the self-loathing is. Perhaps you should join me in the 400s, I'm getting ready to crawl above the misfortunes of others...