Sensei's account talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
The market has rallied 73 times out of the last 100 years during the last two weeks of December and into January - it's just history.
 
Today TSP Talkers are 63.5% CSI and 32.76% GF. That's a ratio of 1.93 to 1. I had thought that was overly bullish, but apparently not so much. The Santa rally is just around the corner, and well, don't want to miss out on that.

Until we get to about 90%/10%, I'd say there are still plenty of buyers out there to support higher prices.
 
Hi! Just checking in to wish everyone a Happy New Year.

I was with the fam from Xmas to New Year in Tokyo, in a hotel without internet access. I had my iphone, but didn't feel like following the markets much. Turns out we all should have followed the markets less in 2013, and just let it ride. Only one member beat the S fund, and it took 15 IFTs to get him less than a half-percent advantage. The first day of 2014, however, suggests that it might be different this year. We'll see. For now, I'm in the G fund, waiting for some type of test of support. Sentiment looks like it's starting to turn, but I think it might need to get more bearish before it's safe to re-enter.

Anyway, final stats for 2013:
+21.64% (AT rank 279)

Could have done better, but I'll take it. Here's hoping we all keep our gains in 2014!

Peace & Prosperity!

-Sensei
 
I sold BAC at 16.77 for a gain of over 92%. I'd been DCA'ing into it since May 2011. I remember picking up shares at $5. I hate to let it go, but over the last three days it had gapped up every day, making a shooting star/blow off top kind of pattern. It's interesting to note that while the broader market had been losing on the first three days of this year, BAC was taking off. Then on day 4, when the market rebounded, BAC put in a negative outside day and lost about 1%. Strange things seem to be afoot.
 
Sensei said:
I sold BAC at 16.77 for a gain of over 92%. I'd been DCA'ing into it since May 2011. I remember picking up shares at $5. I hate to let it go, but over the last three days it had gapped up every day, making a shooting star/blow off top kind of pattern. It's interesting to note that while the broader market had been losing on the first three days of this year, BAC was taking off. Then on day 4, when the market rebounded, BAC put in a negative outside day and lost about 1%. Strange things seem to be afoot.
Click to expand...

Well played, just glanced at the charts, one of my systems put a sell on it as of Monday's close, your timing is impeccable. :)
 
Sensei said:
I sold BAC at 16.77 for a gain of over 92%. I'd been DCA'ing into it since May 2011. I remember picking up shares at $5. I hate to let it go, but over the last three days it had gapped up every day, making a shooting star/blow off top kind of pattern. It's interesting to note that while the broader market had been losing on the first three days of this year, BAC was taking off. Then on day 4, when the market rebounded, BAC put in a negative outside day and lost about 1%. Strange things seem to be afoot.
Click to expand...

I'm sure the move up the first three days had 'NOTHING' to do with Cramer hyping BAC today on CNBC. That kind of manipulation would 'NEVER' happen, would it? ;)
 
JTH said:
Well played, just glanced at the charts, one of my systems put a sell on it as of Monday's close, your timing is impeccable. :)
Click to expand...

Thanks - ironically, I had intended to sell Monday, but I fell asleep and forgot. I got lucky with a positive open to sell on Tuesday.

weatherweenie said:
I'm sure the move up the first three days had 'NOTHING' to do with Cramer hyping BAC today on CNBC. That kind of manipulation would 'NEVER' happen, would it? ;)
Click to expand...
Is that what happened? I don't get the chance to watch CNBC over here. I've heard of Cramer, but does what one guy says on a TV show really sway the value of a stock that much? Could be I guess.
 
Two years ago or so I held BAC for a -$7K loss and now I have a gain of +$54K with no plans to sell until at least $35. I'm just going to keep doing my DCA all the way to the stars.
 
Futures are looking good for the bulls. It seems that one down day like yesterday is always simply a buying opportunity.

On the other hand, consider these facts. Last week one of my co-workers (we're teachers, mind you - totally incompetent with money), emailed the whole staff pointing out his illustrious gains from C-S-I in the TSP during 2013. The very next day, I walked into the staff lounge and a younger teacher was asking a slightly older teacher what to do with her TSP. The veteran remarked that she had made a lot of money in the C fund last year, and that was what she would recommend for the younger teacher.

So, it seems to me that Mom & Pop are starting to take notice of the bull market. Screw Mom & Pop, right? Could be time to step aside... Or not. ;)
 
It will take mom and pop several years (5 or 6) before they are fully loaded back into equities - I'm staying long until the world ends. Snort.
 
I checked Ocean's List at the end of last week, and there were only about 35% of the herd in G or F. Today, it shows just over 40% in those funds... I'll withold comment for now. Watching with interest.
 
I went to bed seeing S&P futures about to kiss the 50 day SMA. So I IFT'd into 100% S. Had no idea it would go full deep throat like it did. I was hoping the 50 SMA would provide a little support.

The caveat here is that I liquidated half my TSP balance effective Tuesday, in the form of a loan. We're very close to a deal on a house over here, and I want the money on hand to cover various costs up front. If/when the deal goes down, I'll return the remainder and reamortize the loan balance. I figured we were close to a top, and taking out a loan would be less damaging now than if I had done so after a 10% correction or full-blown bear market.

So, when I say that I am going 100% S fund, it is with only 50% of my TSP. Nevertheless, 100% S for TSPTalk purposes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

K
Moving funds or change investment mix question
Replies
7
Views
450
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Market Wrap Up and Allocation Trends
Replies
1
Views
309
JTH
JTH
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Optimism with Caution
Replies
1
Views
670
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Opportunistic Investors
Replies
0
Views
278
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - A positive reversal on Friday, but fund
Replies
0
Views
229
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top