Sensei's account talk

[Sensei]

I made a poorly timed move back into stocks COB Friday. I'm 100% S now. That's going to hurt. I expect that the S&P will now tumble to 1588, which is where it was when I sold stocks previously. :suspicious: I don't have much to add.. Good luck. By the way, my [enter] key doesn't work on this site anymore. Really sucks. Oh well, all the more reason to post less.

 

[Cactus]

Join the club. I jumped in yesterday so I get none of the gains and all of the losses. I lost half of my 2013 gains with the last move. Looks like I will lose the rest with this one. That's the story of my life, and people wonder why I say I can never retire.

 

[Birchtree]

I never have to make the decision to get in or out - buy and hold is my choice.

 

[Sensei]

I never have to make the decision to get in or out - buy and hold is my choice.

You know what, Birchtree? I say this with neither irony nor bitterness, I think you have the best "system" here. I've spent the last three years culling this site and its members for information and ideas about how to trade. It's been largely a waste of time. I could have just put it all in S or C and lived my life in oblivion, and I'd be in about exactly the same place as I am right now. That's not to say I'm going to pull an RMI disappearing act. I might make minor adjustments here and there. But for the most part, I plan to be as long as possible for as long as possible. I won't hit 70 for another 32 years, and I figure there's no reason to retire until then. My job has 10 weeks of retirement built into it every year.

 

[maverick06]

I am rapidly approaching the same conclusion...someone posted last week a nice 50/200 sma system that commanded something like 7 trades in the last decade, pretty awesome!

 

[Dutchy]

Sensei..You know what, Birchtree? I say this with neither irony nor bitterness, I think you have the best "system" here. I've spent the last three years culling this site and its members for information and ideas about how to trade. It's been largely a waste of time. I could have just put it all in S or C and lived my life in oblivion, and I'd be in about exactly the same place as I am right now. That's not to say I'm going to pull an RMI disappearing act. I might make minor adjustments here and there. But for the most part, I plan to be as long as possible for as long as possible. I won't hit 70 for another 32 years, and I figure there's no reason to retire until then. My job has 10 weeks of retirement built into it every year.

I am coming around to your view.... I've been scouring TSP Talk daily for years, with little to show for it. My wife, the buy and holder, with common sense allocations, beats my butt every year... However, it appears I'm hooked on the emotional rush that comes with big up days, and have to tolerate the big down days.. Still at year end there is disappointment..

I retired 2/29/12 and should probably be more conservative..

 

[Cactus]

I am coming around to your view.... I've been scouring TSP Talk daily for years, with little to show for it. My wife, the buy and holder, with common sense allocations, beats my butt every year... However, it appears I'm hooked on the emotional rush that comes with big up days, and have to tolerate the big down days.. Still at year end there is disappointment.

You want to be careful with that. My wife became so concerned/disappointed with my trading that she went back to work last year to build up her own retirement account. She lost faith in what I would be able to provide for her. It's not a good situation -- you don't want to be there. :embarrest:

 

[Dutchy]

Cactus....You want to be careful with that. My wife became so concerned/disappointed with my trading that she went back to work last year to build up her own retirement account. She lost faith in what I would be able to provide for her. It's not a good situation -- you don't want to be there. :embarrest:

Thanks Cactus, I'm sort of sorry to hear about your situation. My wife is ALL SET, believe me, (assets @ about 1.7 Mil., and growing) She tele-commutes fulltime, but only because she wants to.. She plans on retiring soon. I'm the one on the hot seat! I'll be back working... as a Wal Mart greeter, if I don't improve.. My wife will be home gardening and sipping her wine and saying, "have a good day at work, Dear"...

 

[Birchtree]

I really enjoy these family tributes - women are actually better investors because they are more risk averse. On the other hand retirement allows the opportunity via free time to stay ahead of the curve and possibly maximize the gains potential. I gave back -$120K yesterday and still I'm positive on the future and investing is my new job while in retirement. Money is going to flow in my direction faster than I can count it and I'm fully prepared to handle that inevitability.

 

[Sensei]

The highs and lows on Friday were higher than both the highs and lows on Thursday for all the indices I checked. Is this an outside day? Let's go to Investopedia:

"Outside days apply to candlestick stock charts. When the bar is both higher and lower than the previous day's bar, it falls outside the trading range of the previous day. This may indicate a change in the general direction of the stock price."
Outside Days Definition | Investopedia

But looking at the charts, the bars were not actually below Thursday's bars. Only the "wicks" of the candlesticks. So, I guess this was not an outside day...? If it were (hypothetically), would the fact that the SPX and W4500 closed higher suggest it was positive? Or, would the Dow and the Transports (both lower) suggest it was a negative day?

Ah, hell. I don't know. I'm buy and hold now, remember?

 

[Sensei]

I like to gauge sentiment during the week by looking at the percentage of the herd in G&F on Ocean's List. I notice today that there are now almost 55% on the sidelines, which is up about 2.5% from yesterday. That's pretty significant for one day. I'm guessing a lot of people bailed in advance of the Fed announcement. I'll be curious to see how many people bought in after the spike in the afternoon. Will check the list again tomorrow, along with the sentiment survey results. If the herd remains 55% out of stocks, I think I'll hold right where I am in the S fund. Sure looks like a lot of fun being in I this month though. Congrats to those of you who have the stones to swim in that pool.

 

[Sensei]

The Sentiment Survey came in at 57% bulls to 35% bears. Hmm. Since I don't subscribe to the premium service, I don't know how the system was changed. I'm in the dark here.

Anyway, the herd is around 54.5% on the sidelines. Looks like a few people bought back in. Today looks like more typical consolidation. I'm not worried about the gaps. The last time the SPX gapped up, it took something like 35 trading days before the gaps were filled. I'm sticking to the S fund for now.

 

[Bquat]

The Sentiment Survey came in at 57% bulls to 35% bears. Hmm. Since I don't subscribe to the premium service, I don't know how the system was changed. I'm in the dark here.

Anyway, the herd is around 54.5% on the sidelines. Looks like a few people bought back in. Today looks like more typical consolidation. I'm not worried about the gaps. The last time the SPX gapped up, it took something like 35 trading days before the gaps were filled. I'm sticking to the S fund for now.

I waiting to see the move. I would just hate to make any profit this year. I'm a sick puppy.

 

[Sensei]

So I see that the threat of gov't shutdown is driving stocks into the toilet. I think the larger issue is the October 17th (?) credit rating on the horizon. If we shutdown the gov't, our credit rating will probably go down. It kind of reminds me of summer of 2011 when everyone knew our credit rating was going to get zonked, and everyone was bearish, yet the contrarian approach didn't work. I guess if you tuned out the daily news and just stayed in stocks, you didn't lose much. But if you micromanaged your account, you got your panties in a bundle when the S-fund tanked 25% in the span of a couple weeks. Then you probably sold near the bottom, yatta yatta yatta.

 

[Sensei]

So I see that the threat of gov't shutdown is driving stocks into the toilet. I think the larger issue is the October 17th (?) credit rating on the horizon. If we shutdown the gov't, our credit rating will probably go down. It kind of reminds me of summer of 2011 when everyone knew our credit rating was going to get zonked, and everyone was bearish, yet the contrarian approach didn't work. I guess if you tuned out the daily news and just stayed in stocks, you didn't lose much. But if you micromanaged your account, you got your panties in a bundle when the S-fund tanked 25% in the span of a couple weeks. Then you probably sold near the bottom, yatta yatta yatta.

Oh, and the other thing I was thinking: even if by some miracle the shutdown is averted at the last minute, think of all the wasted manpower hours that have gone into planning for the shutdown. For the last week, every day I've received an email update from the deputy area director of DoDDS. She is second in charge of all educational activities in Japan, Okinawa, Korea and Guam districts. 6 figure salary, and she drafts an email every day. Probably takes an hour. Then her boss probably reads, edits/approves it, which takes 15-20 minutes, and she then sends it out to all us underlings. So, roughly 1.5-2 hours daily of wasted time for people making over $100K. Now multiply that by every area office of every function of the entire federal government, including the military. What a waste.

 

[weatherweenie]

Oh, and the other thing I was thinking: even if by some miracle the shutdown is averted at the last minute, think of all the wasted manpower hours that have gone into planning for the shutdown. For the last week, every day I've received an email update from the deputy area director of DoDDS. She is second in charge of all educational activities in Japan, Okinawa, Korea and Guam districts. 6 figure salary, and she drafts an email every day. Probably takes an hour. Then her boss probably reads, edits/approves it, which takes 15-20 minutes, and she then sends it out to all us underlings. So, roughly 1.5-2 hours daily of wasted time for people making over $100K. Now multiply that by every area office of every function of the entire federal government, including the military. What a waste.

Look at the FAA when you want to see true government waste.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Look at the FAA when you want to see true government waste.

I don't work for the FAA, but you probably just made a lot of people mad.

 

[Sensei]

Oh, and the other thing I was thinking: even if by some miracle the shutdown is averted at the last minute, think of all the wasted manpower hours that have gone into planning for the shutdown. For the last week, every day I've received an email update from the deputy area director of DoDDS. She is second in charge of all educational activities in Japan, Okinawa, Korea and Guam districts. 6 figure salary, and she drafts an email every day. Probably takes an hour. Then her boss probably reads, edits/approves it, which takes 15-20 minutes, and she then sends it out to all us underlings. So, roughly 1.5-2 hours daily of wasted time for people making over $100K. Now multiply that by every area office of every function of the entire federal government, including the military. What a waste.

Look at the FAA when you want to see true government waste.

I don't work for the FAA, but you probably just made a lot of people mad.

Just to clarify, I'm not villifying DoDDS or its leadership for this kind of waste. Likewise, I wouldn't blame the FAA or any other government agency for what is going on. It's our elected officials in Congress who need to be held responsible. I was just trying to illustrate how their idiocy is already wasting time and money, regardless of how this all turns out.

 

[weatherweenie]

I don't work for the FAA, but you probably just made a lot of people mad.

Oh well. Working in an ARTCC as I do, and hearing the FAA staff complaining about how overstaffed, under worked and overpaid they are, it's kind of hard to ignore. I'm pretty sure this is the case in many of the government agencies.

 

[MaStA]

Honestly there is waste through all government programs I'm sure...In the Air Force at the end of the year any leftover money that was not spent they just blow on whatever they want just so it doesn't go back. Their excuse...if we don't use it, we lose it. Ok...and???

I wish they would give less BS money and cut less military members, but the Air Force Times said they are looking to cut another 25,000 Airmen and 500 aircraft or so. I heard the A-10 is about to be on the chopping block.