Sensei's account talk

[JTH]

It's not that my entry last Tuesday was bad, it's that I failed to exit immediately and hold on to my gains. Now, they appear hopelessly lost with the specter of a major nosedive on Monday. Oh well.

On the bright side, I did my first triathlon today. It was a sprint triathlon - 5k run, 15k bike, and 400m swim. I finished it in an hour and eight minutes. My bike cost about $100 three years ago, and I smoked about 2/3 of the competition on their $2000 road bikes. That was a good feeling. So, not winning so much in my TSP this week, but definitely winning in life.

On the brighter side, there's always a bigger idiot than you, at least you didn't close in the bottom 50 MTD (yes that's me)

OBTW that's a great time on your first triathlon, very respectable, I would be ecstatic if I could do that in under 2 hours, you must be in great shape!

 

[Handballer]

Good job. I could match you on the 5k run and 15k bike, but in the water I would still be out there.:embarrest:

 

[Sensei]

Re: Any opinions on this gap getting filled?

Thanks guys. I guess I have whipped myself into pretty good shape in the last 9-10 months. The humidity here makes running more of a chore now, which is why I've been enjoying swimming in the pool on base before work. The bike though - very costly. I wish biathlons were more of a thing.

 

[Sensei]

Pulled 60% out of stocks. Here's the new allocation:
30 G
30 F
25 C
15 S

 

[Sensei]

What I see this morning (my morning, your evening) is a mixed bag. The SPX made a nice bounce and is at resistance below the 20 day SMA. Unfortunately, I only had 10% in the C fund. The W4500 hit the lower BB and bounced, but the S fund ended up flat. So I don't get to take any gains with me on my exit. Finally, the Transports went all the way down to the 50 day SMA, where they bounced back. So, it looks like support is holding below for now. But all three aforementioned indices are still in a short-term downtrend. For now, I'm happy with my split position. I'll hold until the SPX decisively breaks above the 20 day or dives down to the 50 day. Sounds easy, huh?

 

[rcknfrewld]

I think you dabble in the I find discussion from time to time...what's your take on the outcome of the I fund today with US futures up and International markets mixed I guess

 

[Sensei]

I think you dabble in the I find discussion from time to time...what's your take on the outcome of the I fund today with US futures up and International markets mixed I guess

Well, let's see. Nikkei down moderately. Europe currently up mildly. USD - looks mildly up against the Euro and down against the yen. Or vice versa. I don't really know. I think today's going to be a mild day for all the funds. Maybe up or down a half %. I don't see anything that screams a big day either way for the I fund. Of course, I don't really understand the I fund, which is why I try to take guesses, but rarely actually put my money there.

 

[Sensei]

Looks like the downtrend broke, so I'm going to chase. 100% S, COB today.

 

[Sensei]

Market's tanking. My trades lately have been bad. I should just set it and forget it in an L fund like everyone else I work with. :suspicious:

 

[Sensei]

I'm on vacation now, but I haven't posted much lately. Kind of a mixture of nothing important to say, and in no mood to make small talk. I need some kind of attitude adjustment. Hopefully the market gives me a good one today. If not, I'll just continue being my sullen self.

Anyway, as if you care about that. Here's what I see in the charts of most of the major indices: still a little room above before running into the Bollinger Band. The BBs sit a little below the May highs, so I'm not anticipating a rocket blast up to new highs. I think the BBs will pose resistance. We're getting closer to the end of the month, which makes me think it might be a good idea to start selling rallies. Maybe 25% to G on the next green morning. Another 25% on the subsequent. Then hold 50/50 till July, and hope for a clearer picture. We'll see.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Sorry about your trades and how you feel as I understand, 2013 has not been a good trading year. I can assume BT will be around to spread more of his BS and maybe that will help.

Good Luck Sensei !!

 

[Sensei]

Sorry about your trades and how you feel as I understand, 2013 has not been a good trading year. I can assume BT will be around to spread more of his BS and maybe that will help.

Good Luck Sensei !!

Thanks RMI! I actually have little to complain about as far as the TSP account and my position on the tracker (right now, at least). Just a few other things - little things - nagging at me. It's all good.

 

[KneednDough]

Where have you been??? Out running more marathons? Just curious about your take on the market. I look forward to your posts, and you haven't posted in awhile. Hope all is well!

 

[Sensei]

Where have you been??? Out running more marathons? Just curious about your take on the market. I look forward to your posts, and you haven't posted in awhile. Hope all is well!

Thanks for dropping in! I haven't been reading the forum much at all this summer. Shame on me. I've been back in Okinawa for almost a week now, but had been in the DC area for about three weeks. Visiting family. It was great - I realize how much I miss the States, and how it will always be home (even though I'm not from the East Coast!).

Anyway, I've been mired in the G fund since the SPX was at 1588. I guess that's why I haven't been present lately. Things stop going my way and I fade away. Honestly, it's probably been a good lesson for me. Last year I had a lot of success trading - though I tended to lean on the side of always having at least 50% in the market. This year I became more cavalier, doing 100% trades. I wound up on the wrong side too many times, and sort of gave up. Well, not gave up, but resigned myself to be more patient and wait for the market to come back to me. I've read a few members threads this morning, and have been following Tom's commentary, and it seems some folks are betting on a pullback. The herd, meanwhile, has slightly more in that out (I think it looks like 53% in vs. 47% out). So, I think a test of the 50 day SMA, accompanied by a more bearish position by the herd, would prompt me to buy back in. I don't think the bull is dead yet, and I don't believe we're going to see an earth shattering move to the down side.

And finally, since you mentioned marathons... I was on a 14 hour flight from DC to Tokyo on the day they opened registration for the Naha Marathon. It filled up in one day, so I missed out. The next full marathon I'll be able to run won't be until February, when they hold the Okinawa Marathon in my neighborhood again. Oh well. Torii Station holds a triathlon in November that I'm training for. I ordered a road bike via the AAFES catalog, so hopefully it will show up in the next month or so.

Hope everyone is well - good to be back!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Sensei,

Good luck with your marathon career (soon triathlons) and your investments. I have enjoyed reading your thoughts on the markets and on education.

-RMI

 

[Sensei]

One thing I'm looking for before buying in is a day with a tail.

 

[Sensei]

Beginning of a new school year marks annual salary step increase. I think I only have 2 annual steps remaining, then I'll have to work 4 years before the next step. Yikes, getting long in the tooth.

With the step increase, I've changed my TSP contribution from:
10% Traditional
3% Roth

to...

9% Traditional
5% Roth

Trying to ease into the Roth every year.

 

[maverick06]

Sensei,
Whats your thought process on only "slowly" getting into the Roth? I have switched over completely. Granted I am operating on the assumption that taxes will go up between now and when I retire in another 30 years... I am not questioning your choice, just trying to understand the logic, so assure I made the right choice.

Thanks
Rick

 

[Sensei]

Sensei,
Whats your thought process on only "slowly" getting into the Roth? I have switched over completely. Granted I am operating on the assumption that taxes will go up between now and when I retire in another 30 years... I am not questioning your choice, just trying to understand the logic, so assure I made the right choice.

Thanks
Rick

Well, it's just that Roth comes out of the paycheck after taxes, so I get less take home. If I switched all at once, I'd feel the impact. Lots of expenses with 2 little kids. Paying for various lessons and now preschool again. It's the same reason I haven't been able to make the max contribution. If you are able to switch your contribution all from traditional to Roth without impeding your lifestyle, that's awesome. My personal plan is to keeping adding 2% to Roth and subtracting 1% from traditional every year until I've got the entire contribution going to Roth and I meet the annual max. Make sense?

 

[maverick06]

Sure does. I was able to match the switch with a grade level increase, so that was easy. And yes, the kids are hard, I have 2, one 2 years old, the other 6 months. They are wonderful, but dont make life easy....... haha