Sensei's account talk

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My "crazy channel" obviously didn't hold, but the bottom of it could be a guide line up to the bollinger band. Maybe up to 1485 early next week? Then look out for a return to the pink line, which ought to provide a measure of support. Even if the rally stumbles, I think that pink line will keep the uptrend going. Like Birchtree reminds us often, in a bull market there's more risk being out than in.
SPX 2012_09_21.png
 
Sensei said:
My "crazy channel" obviously didn't hold, but the bottom of it could be a guide line up to the bollinger band. Maybe up to 1485 early next week? Then look out for a return to the pink line, which ought to provide a measure of support. Even if the rally stumbles, I think that pink line will keep the uptrend going. Like Birchtree reminds us often, in a bull market there's more risk being out than in.
View attachment 20400
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small caps are up so far, bounced off 849 forming a bull flag, and then we're up from there. it's looking good.
 
Here's how the day ended up. My charting attempts are extremely amateurish, which is to be expected as I am a complete amateur. FWIW, though, the action is still playing out like a bull flag in the S&P. Still, it seems like when I try to project a bullish outlook, the market turns bearish. When I try to project a bearish outlook, it goes bullish. I guess the bearish perspective here is that we had what looks like negative reversal action. So follow through should be to the downside.

SPX 2012_09_21(2).png

Final thought for the weekend. I've found that it's much easier to buy in near a bottom and catch a rally in a bear market than to sell near the top and avoid a dip in a bull market. Just my own experience, of course. The reason I am where I am on the tracker is because I resisted the urge to sell throughout the prolonged uptrend at the beginning of this year. More recently, I'm trying to get to cute with my IFTs. So, until we go crashing through the 20 day SMA, I'm going to try to show a little more discipline and stay in this bull market.

Good luck, and good weekend!
 
I won't ask for advice, because I know that only I can be the one to decide what to do with my money, and how much risk to take on, etc. But let me explain a little bit, and solicit "ideas" from some of you with more experience.

I contribute a healthy amount to the TSP - not quite the max, but let's say about 2/3 of the way there. About every 6 months I up my contribution by a percent. In addition to the TSP, I make bi-weekly contributions to a Sharebuilder account, which is buy-and-hold in mostly dividend earning mid to large cap stocks. Plus, I've been putting a healthy amount aside for my kids in an education savings account. That's been the most conservative investment. I buy 7 year certificates at an increasingly lower rate. This month, the rate for the 7 year certificate has dropped to a lousy 2.00%. A few years ago, some basic savings accounts would give you close to that without forcing you to keep your hands off it for 7 years.

So, to get to the point, I think it's a waste of my money to tie it up for that long at such a low yield. What should I do with that money then? I intend to continue putting it aside. I'm pretty comfortable with the way I'm setting myself up for retirement, so I'd like to build a sum over the next 10-15 years that I can use for A) kids' education expenses, and B) downpayment on a second home. In other words, I don't want it tied up until retirement (IRA), and I'd like to get a better yield than a friggin' savings account, but not as much risk as plopping it 100% in the stock market. So what are your ideas? Here are mine:


  • Some product from Vanguard, or similar place, that is "diversified" with a mix of stocks and bonds.
  • U.S. government bonds (I series is earning a 2.20% variable rate for the next 6 months, and with QE3 and a devaluation of the dollar, I'm thinking maybe inflation will push that rate higher in the next quarter???)
  • Adding bonds to my existing sharebuilder account

???

Help me out here!
 
have you considered a no/low cost internet brokerage like schwab or scottrade? they have in-house etf's that mimic any index you can imagine. and you can trade them in real time without limits. you can invest in things like reit's, oil, or ag commodities. logic being that folks have to sleep, eat, and, drive before they can afford to save cash. mine even has a free high yield investor checking account that pays a whopping 0.25%.
 
I'd be inclined to keep it simple - consider doubling down in the Sharebuilder account and use it to cover educational expenses later. In the meantime you participate in growth and dividend reinvestment - let the growth over time work in your favor.
 
Whoosh! That's the sound of me getting flushed out of the top 50. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

The 20 day is not holding up. If we don't get a meaningful bounce tomorrow, I'm out.
 
Sensi

You ever think of investment property? If you want to buy a second home in the future you would get it at todays price as your investment property would go the way of property in your area; while collecting a steady monthly income off your investment while you wait.
 
ILoveTDs said:
Sensi

You ever think of investment property? If you want to buy a second home in the future you would get it at todays price as your investment property would go the way of property in your area; while collecting a steady monthly income off your investment while you wait.
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That's an interesting idea, and one I've tossed around. I always manage to come up with excuses for not buying a second property. As it is, I rent out my SoCal condo to a friend and lean on a handy-man acquaintance when something goes awry. If I didn't rent to a friend, I'd have to go with a property manager, and I think they're all crooks. Also, I don't have a whole lot to put down on a property, and I think if you don't put down 10-20%, you have to pay PMI (P(something) Mortgage Insurance), which can be costly. Maybe there are solutions, and I should probably look into it. Also not sure where to invest. SoCal is where I'm from, but I have no family there anymore. The fam has relocated to VA, where prices never came down as much as other places.

It's a lot to consider, and I definitely will. Thanks for the idea, and if you have any tips from experience, let me know!

Good luck - I think we'll be rubbing elbows on the tracker again very soon, if you haven't passed me up already. ;)
 
Won't even post my thoughts, because whatever I think, the opposite happens. For now, indecisive as we fail to reclaim the 20 day on first attempt and looking to reduce a little risk.

G 25
C 05
S 65
I 05
 
Sensei said:
Won't even post my thoughts, because whatever I think, the opposite happens. For now, indecisive as we fail to reclaim the 20 day on first attempt and looking to reduce a little risk.

G 25
C 05
S 65
I 05
Click to expand...
Sure you're not talking about me?:D
 
Sensei, take care Jelawat is coming your way looks like a Big Bad Typhoon, batten down the hatches.
 
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nnuut said:
Sensei, take care Jelawat is coming your way looks like a Big Bad Typhoon, batten down the hatches.
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This is going to be our third in the last month. All of them coming on weekends. Annoying. After the one two weeks ago, I just left everything tied up in my yard.

FireWeatherMet said:
What I thought might be a "bull flag" on the charts looks more like a 5-7 day top now...looking back at the charts after the recent breakdown.
Breakdowns off tops usually have a dead cat bounce of 1-2 days of significant gains before another dip to lower lows....saw that developing this morning and got out with what would be a pretty good recoup off my failed move in a few days ago.
Even if I'm wrong on this...after tomorrow we get 2 new moves...we'll see how this pans out.:suspicious:
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We did end up reclaiming the 20 day after all, which looks bullish. But like you say, there's a lot that looks bearish in the chart now. But QE...? Good luck with the October trades.
 
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Jelawat, otherwise known as "the third typhoon to screw up my weekend in the last six weeks", is supposed to blow in here tomorrow morning. In the meantime, I moved another 25% to G. The 50 day SMA is still very far below, should we test it. If we don't, and recapture the 20 day, I might just chase.
 
60% of the herd is in stocks and 68% of the top 50 is in stocks. Way too bullish for my tastes, yet it looks like we'll be climbing the ladder today. What can I say? Shouldn't have sold. Glad I idiot-proofed again by leaving 50% in. I don't think I'll ever sell more than 50% again - at least not when we're in a bull market. Too much dancing around the 20 day tripped me up this time.
 
Checking out Ocean's List, I see a little drop in bullishness. Top 50 down to 58% stocks, while the herd is about 50/50 now. I think a lot of people hoped to pocket the AM gains before going into two days of TSP imposed frozen helplessness. If we see weakness on Monday and Tuesday, I'll bet a lot of weak bulls will jump ship COB Tuesday. Could be a buying opportunity mid to late next week.
 
Sensei said:
Checking out Ocean's List, I see a little drop in bullishness. Top 50 down to 58% stocks, while the herd is about 50/50 now. I think a lot of people hoped to pocket the AM gains before going into two days of TSP imposed frozen helplessness. If we see weakness on Monday and Tuesday, I'll bet a lot of weak bulls will jump ship COB Tuesday. Could be a buying opportunity mid to late next week.
Click to expand...

I belive the markets and TSP.com will be closed on Monday here in the good old USA.
 
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