Sensei's account talk

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After a loss of almost 2%, the S-fund rallies with a gain of .48%. One step forward, four steps back. I hope this pattern doesn't continue...

I'm more PO'd about the fact that the State Dept. has decided to reduce COLA for all DOD employees in Japan and Okinawa. I looked at a historical chart of monthly averages, and the $ has been the weakest ever against the yen since October 2010 to today. So now the federal government has frozen my salary for the next two years and reduced a benefit that is a major incentive in the decision to work overseas. What a good way to stimulate sales at the base exchange and commissary!:notrust:
 
Oof, I'm starting to get nervous. While I really want to stay committed to sticking with the Sentiment Survey, my gut is telling me to bail out this week. I'm afraid of this purported "Day of Rage" on 3/11. I figure by Wednesday investors will start taking their money off the table, if not before. I'm very tempted to eject now, but then I see in the WSJ a story about some bigwig in Singapore (sorry, I'm new to the financial world and don't know who's who yet) is suggesting that the U.S. recovery is stronger than the average American realizes. So that should be a positive. I think over the course of the year, stocks are the place to be. But from a timing standpoint, this week is probably a decent week to sit out. I might need to sleep on it (which would commit me to the S-Fund through COB Tuesday).
:confused:
 
Going 100% G-Fund COB Wednesday. Tuesday's rally almost erased Monday's loss, and the Asian markets posted modest gains, which is what I am expecting from our market Wednesday. I'm less confident about how Thursday and Friday will play out, so I'd just as soon be on the sidelines.

I still have another IFT to get me back into the action, and I'll be looking at the Sentiment Survey. If it remains in the S Fund, I'll dive back in for next week. I can always hit eject once more if things get dicey.:cool::cool::cool:
 
Despite the Sentiment Survey staying in S, I'm sticking to the G Fund for another week. I want to see which way the trend moves next week before using my last IFT of March. Picking up a half percent on Friday after a loss of 2% on Thursday was not exactly a rally, but then again considering all the bad news around the world, just the fact that stocks were in the green was a moral victory. If they get back on track with the upward trend of this bull market, and the SS stays in S Fund next Friday, I'll jump back into S. If, however, we see volatility or a downward trend, I think I might jump into F for the rest of the month.
 
I pushed back into the S-fund, COB Thursday. My main reasons are the following:
1. I think the nuclear situation is going to be resolved in the next few days. The lack of information from Tohoku Denryoku and the Japanese govt. is due to the fact that they feel the situation is within their control. If they felt otherwise, they would issue stronger warnings to get citizens out of harm’s way. The U.S. and other countries are being reactionary with their plans for evacuation. A power line has been constructed, and soon they will get the cooling system back up and running.
2. We got a negative report on real estate this week, but now that it is out of the way, the U.S. economic recovery will plod ahead. Maybe at a slower pace now, but the direction will continue forward.
The Sentiment Survey looks like it is going to stay on a buy, and now that this year’s early gains have been all but set back to zero, now is the time to catch the momentum back upward. I was fortunate to have stepped aside last week to avert most of the red days that have dropped over 100 people below me on the tracker.
 
Timely move, sound reasons, and we are all glad you are safe !!

(that almost sounded like I know something... I don't)
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Timely move, sound reasons, and we are all glad you are safe !!

(that almost sounded like I know something... I don't)
Click to expand...

Thanks RMI:). I am safe here in Okinawa, over 1,000 miles from the quake and nuclear power plant. It's one of those situations where people in Japan's unaffected areas are feeling a little guilty about having all the luxuries that so many up north do not have, and it's going to hurt consumerism over here. It's spring break for the Japanese, and what the country needs is for people to go ahead and take a trip as planned, buy that electrical appliance or car, etc. But people are going to be frugal, which will hurt the overall economy, especially Okinawa where tourism is the main draw, and the yen is already killing that business.

Anyway, my move back to S-Fund has paid off so far. Even without the benefit of the 3-4% that I earned in January and February before adding myself to the tracker, I am now in the black!:D Not long ago, I was dead last on the tracker, and now I have broken the 400s. I hope I can keep it up.

With today's 2% gain, I expect there might be a sell-off tomorrow, but hopefully not more than 1%, and hopefully we continue inching higher. I read a WSJ editorial around the end of last year that predicted the S&P would climb to 1400 by the end of 2011. I figure WSJ writers know more about the market than I do, so if we're still sitting at 1300 today, I'd say there is a lot of growth to expect the rest of the year.
 
Well, this was a fun week. (I talk as though it's over, because in Okinawa, it is.) I'm going to stick in S with the Sentiment Survey. There is a lot of bullishness, and I notice that more people on the tracker seem to have moved back to stocks. I'm a little concerned with the reports on drops in orders of U.S. manufactured goods, but I don't think that will cause any single day of extreme losses. I feel like now that we've learned to cope with the situations in the Middle East and Japan (I know they're still there, but we are dealing), it is a relatively good time to buy and hold. There will be red days, but I feel pretty secure that the green ones will be greater and more substantial. :cool: That said, if the bullishness gets too high and tips the survey to a sell, I'll probably follow it, as I would expect to see a buy signal shortly after any dip. I do like sticking in stocks through the end of the month so that I don't have to burn an IFT out of the gate in April. Take care!:)
 
Two things have me thinking about moving into F fund sometime in early April.
1. Auto industry – Parts and paints from Japan are no longer available, and are projected to impact the U.S. auto industry in mid April, according to what I’ve been reading.
2. Bonds bottoming out/stocks topping out – According to an article in the WSJ, investors are clearing out of bonds and buying into stocks. If it’s in the paper, that means it’s already happened/happening. Using the logic of the Sentiment Survey, if everyone’s money is already in stocks, the best they can do is flatline. The worst they can do is go down as people sell off.
Any thoughts?:confused:
 
I'm out COB today. Assuming the afternoon trading doesn't nosedive into the red, I've gained at least 5.9% in March, vaulting myself to 282 on the tracker (just last month I managed to be dead last at 700 something).

I think the market is terribly overbought for the moment, and due to take a breath. I want to see what kind of trouble I can get in with the bond market, so I'm going 50 F, 50 G. :nuts: Probably stick this way until the Sentiment Survey flips back to a buy. I'm hoping that will be in 2 or 3 weeks. It would be nice to use my 2nd IFT around the 20th of the month and ride into May in the S-Fund. That's a lot of days in the future though.

Dodgers beat the Giants on Opening Day, and I don't have to go to work in the morning. Life is good! :D
 
Sensei said:
Thank you! I got lucky.:nuts:

I forgot when I posted before going to bed that Friday was already April 1. So 5.9% was my gain for March.
Click to expand...

Outstanding! I'm hopeing to reach 5.9% by end of May. Currently at 1.69%. Hopeing or hoping???
 
Definitely "hoping". The "i" renders the "e" superfluous.

Handballer said:
Outstanding! I'm hopeing to reach 5.9% by end of May. Currently at 1.69%. Hopeing or hoping???
Click to expand...

I was tempted to stay in S until COB Monday, because Mondays have often been green recently, but I didn't want to get caught being greedy. Now I see that all the Asian markets are up. That doesn't necessarily mean Wall Street will be up, but will still have me second guessing nonetheless. It will be interesting to see how this week plays out.
 
Here are my top 5 stupid reasons to expect a drop in April:

5. Saddam Hussein's birthday (April 28)
4. My birthday (April 26)
3. 25th anniversary of Chernobyl meltdown (also April 26)
2. Adolph Hitler's birthday (April 20)
1. Deadline to file taxes (April 15)
:toung:
 
Sensei said:
Here are my top 5 stupid reasons to expect a drop in April:

5. Saddam Hussein's birthday (April 28)
4. My birthday (April 26)
3. 25th anniversary of Chernobyl meltdown (also April 26)
2. Adolph Hitler's birthday (April 20)
1. Deadline to file taxes (April 15)
:toung:
Click to expand...

April 9th - Government shutdown :mad:
 
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