06/24/25
OK, who had 1% gain on their bingo card for Monday? Stocks rallied big despite the military action over the weekend, and just when you think this market is about to rollover, it continues to show its resilience. The indices even cleaned up a bit by going negative midday to test, and temporarily break below, support just to keep us guessing and trying to get us to lean the wrong way. Did it work on you?
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
The world is not out of the woods yet but, without getting into the details about something I don't fully know about, the chances of further escalation may have softened and we're getting word of a temporary cease fire in the region. But for now, selling the rumor did lead to some weakness in stocks last week, but investors were happy to buy the news on Monday.
The price of oil plummeted yesterday but there is always chance of further oil supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz if Iran retaliates, but barring that, the stock market has been wanting to rally, and another obstacle may have been lifted.
Let's look at that chart of oil. The first thing you notice is the dramatic decline yesterday, and in the longer term chart below you see that it occurred right at that long-term resistance line, and just like that it is back below its 200-day EMA. But if we are going to respect the charts, we have to acknowledge that the open gap near 68 was filled and sometimes just filling the gap satisfies the pullback. In other words, it could start to rebound from here again. On the other hand, a decline like that is meaningful and any rallies are likely to get sold before it gets back to 76 again.
The magic of reading the charts. Obviously it's not magic, but more of an art mixed with science. There was no guarantee that the 75-76 area was going to hold - just that it very well could. The emotionless approach would be to understand that if it went over 76 and held there a few days, then the character of the chart would have changed and the declining trend could have turned positive.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is in an interesting situation as well. The support in this recent modest pullback has been holding near 6000 this month or just below, and that happens to be the high in May. It also tested the 20-day average in green and held. It didn't have to hold but the chances were good. What the bulls need next is for that red resistance line to be taken out to lift the lid of resistance. It's a rising resistance line so it could be just above 6100 by the time the chart tests it. Although you can't see it on this chart, 6147 was the all-time high made in February, so that will be the next big test for the S&P 500. By the way, technically yesterday's action created a positive outside reversal day which is generally bullish going forward.
The 10-year Treasury Yield fell sharply and broke below that red channel for the first time since late April. It closed off the lows but it also closed below its 200-day average again. That average hasn't been much of an influence on this chart so my eyes are still following the channel. A couple more closes below it could shift the trend.
The dollar had a major league negative outside reversal day yesterday. It blasted through the 50-day EMA early, but like in early May, it failed to hold that breakout, and it fell right back down, and it closed below Friday's low. This is good news for the I-fund as it appears the dollar is not going to continue to bounce.
A week dollar is beneficial to the I-fund, but also to many other assets that trade in dollars.
The DWCPF / S-fund pulled a fast one and nearly fell out of that formation. Those wedges and pennant-like formations love to give a fake out move in the wrong direction before reversing and eventually breaking out on the other side. It's too early to say that is what's happening here, but I wouldn't bet against it.
The ACWX (I-fund) had a good day but the dollar was up big in early trading giving this fund an early scare. But it bounced back and the negative outside reversal day in UUP (see cha up top) helped reverse this chart to the upside, and the pullback may be over here.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied big convincingly breaking above that resistance line that it has been clinging to, but it did close well off the highs so it seemed inclined to want to fill Monday's open gap near Friday's closing price.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
OK, who had 1% gain on their bingo card for Monday? Stocks rallied big despite the military action over the weekend, and just when you think this market is about to rollover, it continues to show its resilience. The indices even cleaned up a bit by going negative midday to test, and temporarily break below, support just to keep us guessing and trying to get us to lean the wrong way. Did it work on you?
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
The world is not out of the woods yet but, without getting into the details about something I don't fully know about, the chances of further escalation may have softened and we're getting word of a temporary cease fire in the region. But for now, selling the rumor did lead to some weakness in stocks last week, but investors were happy to buy the news on Monday.
The price of oil plummeted yesterday but there is always chance of further oil supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz if Iran retaliates, but barring that, the stock market has been wanting to rally, and another obstacle may have been lifted.
Let's look at that chart of oil. The first thing you notice is the dramatic decline yesterday, and in the longer term chart below you see that it occurred right at that long-term resistance line, and just like that it is back below its 200-day EMA. But if we are going to respect the charts, we have to acknowledge that the open gap near 68 was filled and sometimes just filling the gap satisfies the pullback. In other words, it could start to rebound from here again. On the other hand, a decline like that is meaningful and any rallies are likely to get sold before it gets back to 76 again.
The magic of reading the charts. Obviously it's not magic, but more of an art mixed with science. There was no guarantee that the 75-76 area was going to hold - just that it very well could. The emotionless approach would be to understand that if it went over 76 and held there a few days, then the character of the chart would have changed and the declining trend could have turned positive.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is in an interesting situation as well. The support in this recent modest pullback has been holding near 6000 this month or just below, and that happens to be the high in May. It also tested the 20-day average in green and held. It didn't have to hold but the chances were good. What the bulls need next is for that red resistance line to be taken out to lift the lid of resistance. It's a rising resistance line so it could be just above 6100 by the time the chart tests it. Although you can't see it on this chart, 6147 was the all-time high made in February, so that will be the next big test for the S&P 500. By the way, technically yesterday's action created a positive outside reversal day which is generally bullish going forward.
The 10-year Treasury Yield fell sharply and broke below that red channel for the first time since late April. It closed off the lows but it also closed below its 200-day average again. That average hasn't been much of an influence on this chart so my eyes are still following the channel. A couple more closes below it could shift the trend.
The dollar had a major league negative outside reversal day yesterday. It blasted through the 50-day EMA early, but like in early May, it failed to hold that breakout, and it fell right back down, and it closed below Friday's low. This is good news for the I-fund as it appears the dollar is not going to continue to bounce.
A week dollar is beneficial to the I-fund, but also to many other assets that trade in dollars.
The DWCPF / S-fund pulled a fast one and nearly fell out of that formation. Those wedges and pennant-like formations love to give a fake out move in the wrong direction before reversing and eventually breaking out on the other side. It's too early to say that is what's happening here, but I wouldn't bet against it.
The ACWX (I-fund) had a good day but the dollar was up big in early trading giving this fund an early scare. But it bounced back and the negative outside reversal day in UUP (see cha up top) helped reverse this chart to the upside, and the pullback may be over here.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied big convincingly breaking above that resistance line that it has been clinging to, but it did close well off the highs so it seemed inclined to want to fill Monday's open gap near Friday's closing price.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
