Stocks were mixed on Tuesday and closed well off their highs, but the Dow and S&P 500 posted their 5th consecutive positive days as the positive holiday seasonality is holding stocks up up well.
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A strong GDP report helped stocks rally, but it also sent the dollar higher which has a negative impact on the I-fund. Bonds were also down on the strong economic data.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is dancing above the neckline resistance line, similar to what we saw in late November and early December. The bulls want to see some upside separation from this line since the last time it hung around like this, the bears were able to pull the index down before it was able to make a meaningful breakout. Volume is drying up and the PMO is close to a positive crossover.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) popped above its resistance line but it couldn't quite hold into the close. This is an interesting test for the small caps, particularity as we approach January, where the January Effect tends to benefit small caps.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq struggled yesterday at resistance with the blame going to the Biotech stocks...
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Biotechs were clobbered on Tuesday and it held back the indices to differing degrees.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was down with the strength in the dollar being a big part of that. This chart is bearish and getting close to testing the 50-day EMA again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Day -2 on the Christmas Performance Chart was good for the Dow, but we did see some late selling but the one negative blip on the chart is now behind us. Today is trading day number -1. Momentum is strong, as is seasonality so the bears have their work cut out for them for the next few days.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down sharply on the strong GDP number and it went from being above the red pennant resistance line, right down to the bottom support line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Per www.tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Thursday, December 25th in observance of the Christmas Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Thursday night (December 25th) will be processed Friday night (December 26th), at Friday's closing share prices."
AutoTracker: Just a reminder that if you want to get on the 2015 AutoTracker to start the new year, make sure to login to the AutoTracker by December 31 so we know you're still around. If you're new to the AutoTracker, use the instructions on this page to get started.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a very Merry Christmas, and we'll see you back here on Friday with a very brief update.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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