1/16/13
Stocks were mixed but mostly flat again yesterday, although the Dow did end the day up 28-points. We're seeing new highs in some leading indices, but the S&P 500 has hit a brick wall.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The flat top made it four days in a row the S&P 500 could not get over 1473 and the high made back in September, 1474. The bull flag (blue) worked out with a breakout to the upside last week, but it can't seem to make any more progress. The good news is, so far the flat top has not produced a pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The leaders Russell 2000 Index (small caps) and the Transportation Index both made higher highs yesterday. Small caps tend to outperform in January while the Transports are very sensitive to economic conditions so this is a positive sign.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Another positive sign for the economy is the rise in the price of oil. Granted, the weakness in the dollar has something to do with it, but rising oil prices, as long as they don't get too much above $100 - $115 a barrel, is a positive economic indicator.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The smart money indicator, OEX put / call ratio, is starting to pull back from its bullish reading while at the same time the "dumb money" is moving back toward its recent bullish readings.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Overly bullish dumb money and overly bearish smart money tends to be bearish for the market. Neither of the current readings are extreme yet so I don't see an immediate danger, but the smart money will continue to get bearish until we hit a peak. If you recall, the longer-term overhead resistance in the S&P is near 1490-1500 and if we hit that, I'd speculate that the smart money will be quite bearish by then.
The smart money / dumb money confidence indicator from sentimenTrader.com shows both are nearing the extreme readings, but neither have hit it yet. Those extreme readings would be less than 40 and greater than 60.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
If the smart money's reading dips below 40 while the dumb money moves above 60, we will have a warning sign. The readings can get much more extreme as you can see above, but that 40 / 60 level is the warning sign. A reading of less than 30 for the smart money combined with a reading greater than 70 for the dumb money would be a danger sign.
If you missed this announcement from Tim Geithner, TSP participants may be interested... US Taps Pension Fund (TSP) to Avoid Passing Debt Limit
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed but mostly flat again yesterday, although the Dow did end the day up 28-points. We're seeing new highs in some leading indices, but the S&P 500 has hit a brick wall.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The flat top made it four days in a row the S&P 500 could not get over 1473 and the high made back in September, 1474. The bull flag (blue) worked out with a breakout to the upside last week, but it can't seem to make any more progress. The good news is, so far the flat top has not produced a pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The leaders Russell 2000 Index (small caps) and the Transportation Index both made higher highs yesterday. Small caps tend to outperform in January while the Transports are very sensitive to economic conditions so this is a positive sign.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Another positive sign for the economy is the rise in the price of oil. Granted, the weakness in the dollar has something to do with it, but rising oil prices, as long as they don't get too much above $100 - $115 a barrel, is a positive economic indicator.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The smart money indicator, OEX put / call ratio, is starting to pull back from its bullish reading while at the same time the "dumb money" is moving back toward its recent bullish readings.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Overly bullish dumb money and overly bearish smart money tends to be bearish for the market. Neither of the current readings are extreme yet so I don't see an immediate danger, but the smart money will continue to get bearish until we hit a peak. If you recall, the longer-term overhead resistance in the S&P is near 1490-1500 and if we hit that, I'd speculate that the smart money will be quite bearish by then.
The smart money / dumb money confidence indicator from sentimenTrader.com shows both are nearing the extreme readings, but neither have hit it yet. Those extreme readings would be less than 40 and greater than 60.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
If the smart money's reading dips below 40 while the dumb money moves above 60, we will have a warning sign. The readings can get much more extreme as you can see above, but that 40 / 60 level is the warning sign. A reading of less than 30 for the smart money combined with a reading greater than 70 for the dumb money would be a danger sign.
If you missed this announcement from Tim Geithner, TSP participants may be interested... US Taps Pension Fund (TSP) to Avoid Passing Debt Limit
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
