3/11/13
Stocks rallied again after a better than expected jobs report on Friday. The Dow, which was up up 68-points, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, all made new 52-week highs.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 149"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has been up 6 days in a row, and 8 or the last 9 since the February low. The trend is still up, but once again it is closer to resistance than support.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I have been showing this intermediate-term chart of the S&P 500 and all this time I have been using the early April 2012 peak to draw the upper resistance line (blue), and perhaps I am grasping at straws, but I noticed that if I used the May 1, 2012 high instead, it creates an exact parallel trading channel with the lower support line (red).
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yes, maybe grasping at straws since I was pretty surprised that the intermediate term resistance line would not hold as resistance, but a parallel channel makes more sense as that would put the resistance line right about at 1550, where the S&P 500 is now.
I moved back a little further and noticed that the prior two rallies lasted 3.5 and 4 months before both gave way to a 2 month pullback. The current rally is now 3.5 months old.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Sentiment is still more bearish than would be expected in a market like this, and that is a big part of the reason why the rally has been able to persist. Apparently it takes 3.5 to 4 months before investors embrace a rally and finally become excessively bullish, and that's probably when we'll see a pullback. We just haven't gotten their yet.
This little tidbit from sentimenTrader.com shows what has happened in the past after the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note both hit 200-day highs as they did on Friday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It looks like the short-term shows better than average returns, but going out a month the weakness in stocks is pretty consistent.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied again after a better than expected jobs report on Friday. The Dow, which was up up 68-points, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, all made new 52-week highs.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 149"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.46%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has been up 6 days in a row, and 8 or the last 9 since the February low. The trend is still up, but once again it is closer to resistance than support.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I have been showing this intermediate-term chart of the S&P 500 and all this time I have been using the early April 2012 peak to draw the upper resistance line (blue), and perhaps I am grasping at straws, but I noticed that if I used the May 1, 2012 high instead, it creates an exact parallel trading channel with the lower support line (red).
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yes, maybe grasping at straws since I was pretty surprised that the intermediate term resistance line would not hold as resistance, but a parallel channel makes more sense as that would put the resistance line right about at 1550, where the S&P 500 is now.
I moved back a little further and noticed that the prior two rallies lasted 3.5 and 4 months before both gave way to a 2 month pullback. The current rally is now 3.5 months old.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Sentiment is still more bearish than would be expected in a market like this, and that is a big part of the reason why the rally has been able to persist. Apparently it takes 3.5 to 4 months before investors embrace a rally and finally become excessively bullish, and that's probably when we'll see a pullback. We just haven't gotten their yet.
This little tidbit from sentimenTrader.com shows what has happened in the past after the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note both hit 200-day highs as they did on Friday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It looks like the short-term shows better than average returns, but going out a month the weakness in stocks is pretty consistent.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
