Rogue's Account Talk

[Rogue]

So, I've pretty much bought & held ("let it ride") until now.

History:
2007 PIP: 6.3 %
2008 PIP: -29.79%
2009 PIP: 23.02%
2010: 10.12%

I started putting $$ into S & I funds when they were first introduced, and added the same amount to them since then. For no real rational reason.

So, I'm going to begin using IFTs, a modified Sentiment Survey Signal System, and keep some $$ in L2030 & L2040.

My plan is to not go 100% in any one fund at a time.

During "buy" signals when the SSSS signals 100% S or C fund, I will keep some in the other stock funds (C, S, & I) also.

During "sell" signals when the SSSS signals 100% G fund, I plan to keep a small percentage in the stock funds also.

Just made my first real IFT.

Goal : > 2.5m by retirement (after 2030).

Let's make some $$.

 

[cawwilson]

Good Goal, and Good Luck!

 

[Rogue]

From the Sentiment Talk thread...

Rogue, I am enjoying your posts. I think I am catching on to your thought on using the "L-Funds" Is the following right? Are you leaving a specific percentage or amount in a couple of L's over time, and just moving the rest around?

...


If this is the case, the L with a close horizon (L-20) with less exposure might be more in line with your needs as opposed to those with a higher risk (L-40).

Thanks, yes that's a good assessment of what I've written and spot-on about the lack of a defined approach. I have a general theory of what I want to do, which is be more aggressive while I can afford the risk.

I absolutely welcome the critique and plan to consider feedback as I tailor and develop my plan.

Yes, I'm leaving a chunk (about 30%), split between L2030 and L2040.
That is my "buy and hold" portion and I don't intend to move it around.
I won't retire until at least 2030, so I plan to be more aggressive for 10 years or so.

The exposure I'm trying to avoid by using L funds is exposure to my own mistakes, not exposure to market bumps and bruises.

So far, I've just about mirrored, and outperformed by a bit, the longest L fund. Last year my PIP was 10.12%, and it looks like I could have easily done better if I had been more invested in S, and especially if I followed the Sentiment Signals. Same story in most years. I had a great 2009, not sure how Sentiment Signals did there (edit, not as well), and an awful 2008, but would have been less bad if I'd moved in line with sentiment. In retrospect, I've been way over-invested in the C-fund and underinvested in S.

 

[Boghie]

Rogue,

How did you get your PIPs for earlier years? When I change the date in the TSP website I no longer have the option of clicking for a 12 month PIP...

The PIP is more commonly known as an 'Internal Rate of Return' or a Compound Annual Growth Rate. Quicken computes it perfectly for me - but it is quite a labor of love to get the data in there.

Do you have a secret you can tell us little people

 

[Rogue]

It's in your annual statement.

Well, it only goes back to '07 on the new site.
If you click on "statements" near the top left after you log in,
it is defaulted to quarterly statements.

If you look though, there is a tab for "annual statements" right under where it says "Participant Statement: Civilian."

Then, after opening a year, the chart on the top left includes the
Pesonal Investment Performance.

 

[Boghie]

Awesome, thanks...

 

[Rogue]

Did you find it, Boghie?

Correction: PIP is 14.13% now. Too late to edit previous post.

 

[Boghie]

Rogue,

You might want to review the retirement calculators at DinkyTown.net.
Maybe make an investment in Quicken Premier.
Also, look at the MoneyChimp. CAGR. Investment Performance.

You will need tools like these to work out what your annual paycheck contributions and expected rate of return are needed to make your goal of $2.5 million. For example, using Quicken I would need to contribute about $13K and have an annual return of 11%. Workable, but a stretch for a dude who is 46. And, that 11% annual return would have to include lots of stock at 63 years old. But, it would net me an annual income of over $100K a year after tax. Then you get to add your pension and Social Security.

If I can get there I think I'll stare at the purty girls in Istanbul - if the wife will let me



-----------------------
I found the reference to my earlier PIPs. Thanks Rogue...

 

[Rogue]

Thanks again, Boghie.

So, I entered my 2nd IFT in a couple of years on Friday afternoon.
It was to be effective @ COB today, right?


So, does anyone know...
When does it show up on tsp.gov?
When does it show up on autotracker?
(Both show that I made the IFT, the funds just haven't been moved yet).

 

[WorkFE]

You should be able to see the effects of that IFT before tomorrows open but I do not work for the TSP.
Should show up on the AutoTracker when posted this evening.

 

[Rogue]

New allocation entered today @ 10:55 AM, will be interesting to see when it is in effect on tsp.gov.

2050 - 5
2040 - 10
2030 - 10

C - 35
S - 25
I - 15
____________

 

[jpcavin]

New allocation entered today @ 10:55 AM, will be interesting to see when it is in effect on tsp.gov.

2050 - 5
2040 - 10
2030 - 10

C - 35
S - 25
I - 15
____________

If you are civil service, you missed the deadline noon yesterday. Next one takes place On 3 March. Makes sure your allocation reflects what you want by noon that day. Payday is the 4th of March.
If you are military, I would guesstimate that you would have to make your selection by noon on the day before payday, normally 14th and 30th/31st.

 

[Rogue]

If you are civil service, you missed the deadline noon yesterday. Next one takes place On 3 March. Makes sure your allocation reflects what you want by noon that day. Payday is the 4th of March.
If you are military, I would guesstimate that you would have to make your selection by noon on the day before payday, normally 14th and 30th/31st.

Thankya, sir.
I'm civil service now.
And I've been trying to figure this out for awhile, not that we have the ability to time our moves very precisely, but it would help to know when the $$ is redistributed.

So, if Id've made it by noon yesterday (Thursday the 17th), the funds would be shifted @ COB today?

And since I made it today, the shift will actually happen COB next business day (Tuesday March 1)? Why would it happen on Thursday, March 3? Not arguing with you at all, just trying to understand the process.

 

[Rogue]

Even though this is in the AT, I'll add it here.


Previous distribution:

2050: 0
2040: 15
2030: 15

G: 10
C: 25
S: 35
I: 0

Rationale: Moving o/o G, heavier into C(buying shares at a lower cost than S or I, trying to catch I on a value-buy, and a pinch into 2050.


Current allocations:

2050: 33
2040: 33
2030: 34



12-Month Personal Rate of Return:
19.11%

New allocation entered today @ 10:55 AM, will be interesting to see when it is in effect on tsp.gov.

2050 - 5
2040 - 10
2030 - 10

C - 35
S - 25
I - 15
____________

 

[jpcavin]

Thankya, sir.
I'm civil service now.
And I've been trying to figure this out for awhile, not that we have the ability to time our moves very precisely, but it would help to know when the $$ is redistributed.

So, if Id've made it by noon yesterday (Thursday the 17th), the funds would be shifted @ COB today?

And since I made it today, the shift will actually happen COB next business day (Tuesday March 1)? Why would it happen on Thursday, March 3? Not arguing with you at all, just trying to understand the process.

Name is Judy

You seem to be talking about two different things. Your biweekly contribution is what gets taken out of your pay and placed in TSP. Interfund transfers is moving your money that is already in TSP from one fund to another. I'll explain the two.

If you want to change the allocation of your contribution (the money that comes out of your pay), you have to do that by noon the day PRIOR to payday and TSP will allocate your money at the closing price for that day (day prior to payday). You have the opportunity to do this every two weeks (u get paid every two weeks)

If you want to move your money around from one fund to one or more funds, you have to do this by noon and your funds will be distributed the next day (morning) at the previous day's closing share price. If you transfer funds after noon, your funds will be distributed 2 days later at the price of the previous day's closing.

 

[Bquat]

Changes posted befor 1200 Eastern time will go in effect COB today. Changes after 1200 will be in effect COB Tuesday and with any changes up to 1200 Tuesday.

I think JP is getting confused in payday allotment alocations to TSP and not IFT's (interfund transfers) that the tracker is concerned with.
Just my guess?

 

[Bquat]

New allocation entered today @ 10:55 AM, will be interesting to see when it is in effect on tsp.gov.

2050 - 5
2040 - 10
2030 - 10

C - 35
S - 25
I - 15
____________

"New IFT allocation today" les confusing but I knew what you were saying.

 

[jpcavin]

"New IFT allocation today" les confusing but I knew what you were saying.

TSP only has IFT's and Allocations. He said "allocation" and that is exactly how I took it.

 

[Rogue]

You're both right, I know the difference and used "allocation" there instead of "distribution."
Judy, sorry about the gender assumption.

So, tsp.gov shows my distribution, post IFT, as updated already this morning:
2050 - 5
2040 - 10
2030 - 10

C - 35
S - 25
I - 15

So...I made the IFT Friday morning, and the funds are redistributed this (next business day) morning. Exactly as jpcavin described.
Nice.
Here's another nice update:
12-Month Personal Rate of Return:
19.11%


And, maybe in part due to my misuse of the terms, jpcavin provided EXACTLY the answer I'm seeking:

If you want to move your money around from one fund to one or more funds, you have to do this by noon and your funds will be distributed the next day (morning) at the previous day's closing share price. If you transfer funds after noon, your funds will be distributed 2 days later at the price of the previous day's closing.

Thanks!

 

[Rogue]

Changes posted befor 1200 Eastern time will go in effect COB today. Changes after 1200 will be in effect COB Tuesday and with any changes up to 1200 Tuesday.
...

To be clear, you are talking in the present (TODAY), right?