3/15/13
Stocks moved higher again yesterday, making it 10 consecutive positive closes for the Dow, and Thursday's gain was not the 3 or 5 point kind of gain like we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Dow gained 84-points Thursday.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.95%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has been up 9 of the last 10 days and sure, it is due for a break, but will the rising wedge break down or will momentum just crash through resistance again?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It's difficult to come up with so many different ways to say it... This chart looks overbought and due for a pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The problem is investors are not respecting the rally, and the best way to feed a rally is to have bears with cash. Our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in with 49% saying they are bullish and 40% bearish, which is a 1.23 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. That is low enough to keep the system on a buy signal next week.
The smart money of the OEX put / call ratio had been rather neutral over the last few weeks, although they were leaning toward being bullish, but that is changing. Their 10-day moving average is showing that they are starting to move toward being excessively bearish, but not quite there yet. When their ratio (currently 1.90) hits 2.00 to 1 it could be considered extreme.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dumb money, shown by the CBOE put / call ratio above, were quite bearish at the beginning of this month, but they have since started to finally embrace the rally. But again, nothing overly extreme just yet. When it starts reading 0.90 or 0.80, that will be extreme.
As we talked about before the month started, historically March has a good half and a bad half when it comes to seasonality.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Next Tuesday will be the 13th trading day in March and that will start the bad half of March. Seasonality is rarely a primary indicator so I wouldn't read too much into it, but as overbought as some of the indicators are, and as long as this rally has gone on, a nice little pullback in the 2nd half of March would make a lot of folks happy. That probably means it won't happen.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks moved higher again yesterday, making it 10 consecutive positive closes for the Dow, and Thursday's gain was not the 3 or 5 point kind of gain like we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Dow gained 84-points Thursday.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 153"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0036%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.03%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.95%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 has been up 9 of the last 10 days and sure, it is due for a break, but will the rising wedge break down or will momentum just crash through resistance again?
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It's difficult to come up with so many different ways to say it... This chart looks overbought and due for a pullback.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The problem is investors are not respecting the rally, and the best way to feed a rally is to have bears with cash. Our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in with 49% saying they are bullish and 40% bearish, which is a 1.23 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. That is low enough to keep the system on a buy signal next week.
The smart money of the OEX put / call ratio had been rather neutral over the last few weeks, although they were leaning toward being bullish, but that is changing. Their 10-day moving average is showing that they are starting to move toward being excessively bearish, but not quite there yet. When their ratio (currently 1.90) hits 2.00 to 1 it could be considered extreme.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dumb money, shown by the CBOE put / call ratio above, were quite bearish at the beginning of this month, but they have since started to finally embrace the rally. But again, nothing overly extreme just yet. When it starts reading 0.90 or 0.80, that will be extreme.
As we talked about before the month started, historically March has a good half and a bad half when it comes to seasonality.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Next Tuesday will be the 13th trading day in March and that will start the bad half of March. Seasonality is rarely a primary indicator so I wouldn't read too much into it, but as overbought as some of the indicators are, and as long as this rally has gone on, a nice little pullback in the 2nd half of March would make a lot of folks happy. That probably means it won't happen.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
