rangerray's Account Talk

[rangerray]

"As I stated, CEO’s make decisions on how they use their cash. With the economy shut down, layoffs in the millions, and no clear visibility about the economic recovery post-pandemic, companies are going to become vastly more conservative on the use of their cash.
Given that source of market liquidity is now gone [stock buybacks], the market will have a much tougher time maintaining current levels, much less going higher."

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/aaand-its-gone-the-biggest-support-for-asset-prices/

 

[rangerray]

I feel like the S&P is going to fade into the close, like it did yesterday, but that's just a hunch.

 

[rangerray]

And, you couldn't trade my hunch for lunch.

 

[rangerray]

Taking a chance. I'll be 100% S Fund tomorrow. Going against all wisdom :nuts:

 

[LTJPFED]

Missed the noon cutoff so I guess I'll wait until another down day. Wanted to move a very small pct into C/S. I guess the talking heads are now saying not going to re-test the lows so things won't go too far down if there are more dips. Just hope it doesn't take off and miss too much. FOMO whispering to me again.....

 

[Rod]

I guess the talking heads are now saying not going to re-test the lows...

Beware of them, because they are nothing but market manipulators. They are only saying that in order to influence Mr. Market into not re-testing the low. It's all wishful thinking on their part.

 

[rangerray]

Missed the noon cutoff so I guess I'll wait until another down day. Wanted to move a very small pct into C/S. I guess the talking heads are now saying not going to re-test the lows so things won't go too far down if there are more dips. Just hope it doesn't take off and miss too much. FOMO whispering to me again.....

No, I still believe the lows will be tested. I'm just trying a different theory at the moment. Don't do what I'm doing. Unless it pays off, then, still don't do what I do. I'm a nearly complete idiot at times. I'm gambling. I doing this and simply keeping my fingers crossed. The only thing I can promise is that I won't cry later because everybody told me so.

 

[rangerray]

Are we waiting on the bump to come from the President's plan to reopen the country? :smile:

 

[rangerray]

I made a little money in the S Fund and, just like that, I'm out again with COB today. Now, I've used all of my moves until May. I left 5% each in C and S Funds with 90% in G. I will always wish that I'd bought in at the end of March, but I just couldn't resist all of the voices saying that a lower low is on the horizon. If it is to be, I'd just as soon get it over with.

 

[rangerray]

I'm holding my position of 100% S Fund into next week. I see a trend and am content that there's more upside inside the channel. The market seems to be looking forward to better times to come.

 

[flalaw97]

I split the baby and pulled out half of what was in S & C because weekends can be so scary these days.

 

[rangerray]

I split the baby and pulled out half of what was in S & C because weekends can be so scary these days.

You know, I don't disagree. A lot can happen over the weekend, especially during these tough times and I have been reluctant to remain vulnerable to a sad Monday, but I just looked back at the last four Monday opening/closings and it hasn't been that bad for a Monday overall.

My goal, thus far, has been to look for opportunities to make a quick gain, then run to safety and wait for the next time. I was listening to the voices that said "another drop is coming to test the losses of late March" and really, in hindsight, I was way too conservative over the last six weeks. And, those voices could very well have been right, as historically another shoe does drop. It may yet happen, I'm not saying it won't, but I have more or less fought the trend lately and because of that I've missed a great chance to pump up my TSP. I'm more inclined now to ride the trend and get out of the market a day late if my spider sense tells me to jump.

Also, I've only got the one move remaining for the entire month of May, so I want to maximize it's use if possible. Too bad we can't at least have three moves per month.

 

[flalaw97]

It would be so nice to have an extra IFT or two. At least one more to allow us to move in, out, and back in again. Or if they want to keep it at two moves, don't count any move that is a move to G. I too missed out on potential gains in April by jumping in and right back out again but there was some value in not having it at risk for a while.

 

[rangerray]

I'm in the same boat with others that say rich folks need to stop with the negative talk.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...tting-big-against-it-2020-05-13?mod=home-page

 

[rangerray]

I now wish I'd gotten out of the market last Friday when my TSP balance was at it's highest ever. With the possibility of a gain today, I'm thinking about getting out today and being done for the month. Anybody have any insight into what the weekend might hold?

 

[tsptalk]

What about a partial exit if you're unsure?

 

[rangerray]

I suppose by 1030 I just felt like gambling some more. I'm going to hope for a good Monday and think about then. You know, I wouldn't get so antsy, but for logging in to my TSP to see what a 6% loss looks like in real dollars. Rod mentioned that Mondays haven't been that bad for the C Fund and when I looked at Mondays for the S Fund, they're not so scary either.

 

[rangerray]

I don't trust tomorrow. I'm pulling back to 10% S and 10% C from 100% S at COB today. So it is written, so it is done.

 

[bmneveu]

I don't trust tomorrow. I'm pulling back to 10% S and 10% C from 100% S at COB today. So it is written, so it is done.

Congrats on pulling in that big gain and taking it to the bank!

 

[rangerray]

Thanks! Yesterday was the single best day I've ever had in the TSP.