04/24/13
Strange day yesterday. Stocks rallied strongly in the morning. plummeted in the early afternoon, and rallied into the close. The Dow gained 152-points, but it had to withstand a mini-crash caused by a tweet hacker.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 158"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +1.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +1.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
A hacker got into the Associated Press twitter account and tweeted that there had been two explosions at the White House and that President Barack Obama had been injured. Chaos ensued and the Dow gave back all of a large triple digit gain within minutes, but just as quickly, the story was proven false and the gains came right back.
The daily chart doesn't really show anything unusual. The decline simply took the SPY down to the 20-day EMA where the panic sell-off stopped and the market indices closed near their intraday highs.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The SPY is now solidly back within the rising trading channel.
The Dow Transportation Index lagged the rest of the indices yesterday and continues to trade within a pennant that is nearing its apex.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio, which is a good sentiment indicator because is it not a survey where people tell us how they feel about the market. This indicator tells us what they are actually doing with their money - whether they are buying stock funds, or whether they are selling short or in cash.
This current reading near 0.95 has been an area where it is apparent that investors are on the overly bearish side, because we're more likely to see the S&P 500 near a bottom than a top when it hits this level.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This verifies the sentiment survey that suggests the same thing. This is very strange behavior for investors when the major indices are within a stone's throw of all-time highs.
We still have a week, but I wanted to post the May seasonality to chart ahead of time. We have all heard the saying, "Sell in May and go away." And this chart shows that there is a lot of weaker than average days across the chart. But you can see that the first few days in May have been very positive over the years.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
So we may want to "Sell in May", but it may be more profitable to say instead, "Sell in May, but not right away."
Of course we also have to get through the end of April.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Strange day yesterday. Stocks rallied strongly in the morning. plummeted in the early afternoon, and rallied into the close. The Dow gained 152-points, but it had to withstand a mini-crash caused by a tweet hacker.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 158"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +1.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +1.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
A hacker got into the Associated Press twitter account and tweeted that there had been two explosions at the White House and that President Barack Obama had been injured. Chaos ensued and the Dow gave back all of a large triple digit gain within minutes, but just as quickly, the story was proven false and the gains came right back.
The daily chart doesn't really show anything unusual. The decline simply took the SPY down to the 20-day EMA where the panic sell-off stopped and the market indices closed near their intraday highs.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The SPY is now solidly back within the rising trading channel.
The Dow Transportation Index lagged the rest of the indices yesterday and continues to trade within a pennant that is nearing its apex.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio, which is a good sentiment indicator because is it not a survey where people tell us how they feel about the market. This indicator tells us what they are actually doing with their money - whether they are buying stock funds, or whether they are selling short or in cash.
This current reading near 0.95 has been an area where it is apparent that investors are on the overly bearish side, because we're more likely to see the S&P 500 near a bottom than a top when it hits this level.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This verifies the sentiment survey that suggests the same thing. This is very strange behavior for investors when the major indices are within a stone's throw of all-time highs.
We still have a week, but I wanted to post the May seasonality to chart ahead of time. We have all heard the saying, "Sell in May and go away." And this chart shows that there is a lot of weaker than average days across the chart. But you can see that the first few days in May have been very positive over the years.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
So we may want to "Sell in May", but it may be more profitable to say instead, "Sell in May, but not right away."
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
