Where The Money Is Made & Lost: Presidential Cycles
Part 1: Where The Money Is Made & Lost
Part 2: Presidential Cycles
Part 3: The Four Quarters
Part 4: The Twelve Months
Truncated: Historically, from Kennedy to Trump, Election & Post cycle years are stable and consistent, Mid-Cycle has a strong downside bias, while Pre-Cycle has a strong upside bias.
The Top 20% of Pre-Cycle years have the highest count & cumulative gains (45 months @ 270%).
The Middle 60% of Election Years have the highest monthly count, but it's the Pre-Cycle with the highest cumulative gains.
The Bottom 20% of Mid-Cycle has the highest count & cumulative losses (50 months @ -305%) nearly 2X the losses of the other 3 cycles.
Key takeaway: Be cautious with 2026. The Mid-Cycle has the largest slice of the Bottom 20%, the smallest slice of the Middle 60% and the 2nd smallest slice of the Top 20%. How bad is the Mid-Cycle? It's very bad, our 60-year average return was 8.48% of which the Mid-Cycle average return was .21%
Chart: 720 Monthly returns filtered by the Top 20%, the Middle 60%, and the Bottom 20%, then sorted into the 4-years of the Presidential Cycle with 15 total cycles.
Bonus: Over the past 15 Presidential Cycles, our Election Year has an 87% win ratio, with a yearly 7.95% average. Within those 15 election years, our 180 months have a 63% win ratio with an average gain of .62%
Part 1: Where The Money Is Made & Lost
Part 2: Presidential Cycles
Part 3: The Four Quarters
Part 4: The Twelve Months
Truncated: Historically, from Kennedy to Trump, Election & Post cycle years are stable and consistent, Mid-Cycle has a strong downside bias, while Pre-Cycle has a strong upside bias.
The Top 20% of Pre-Cycle years have the highest count & cumulative gains (45 months @ 270%).
The Middle 60% of Election Years have the highest monthly count, but it's the Pre-Cycle with the highest cumulative gains.
The Bottom 20% of Mid-Cycle has the highest count & cumulative losses (50 months @ -305%) nearly 2X the losses of the other 3 cycles.
Key takeaway: Be cautious with 2026. The Mid-Cycle has the largest slice of the Bottom 20%, the smallest slice of the Middle 60% and the 2nd smallest slice of the Top 20%. How bad is the Mid-Cycle? It's very bad, our 60-year average return was 8.48% of which the Mid-Cycle average return was .21%
Chart: 720 Monthly returns filtered by the Top 20%, the Middle 60%, and the Bottom 20%, then sorted into the 4-years of the Presidential Cycle with 15 total cycles.
Bonus: Over the past 15 Presidential Cycles, our Election Year has an 87% win ratio, with a yearly 7.95% average. Within those 15 election years, our 180 months have a 63% win ratio with an average gain of .62%
