Intela: Pre-Bell 
Brief
Time: 2025-10-21 09:27 (ET)
Key Takeaway
• U.S. equity futures are flat to slightly positive ahead of earnings heavyweights. [1]
• The dollar index holds near recent highs; watch for pressure on global risk. [2]
• Shutdown effects are widening: judiciary furloughs began, adding uncertainty around data flow. [3]
What Moved Overnight
• Futures: SPX futures little changed; Europe mixed after Asia’s modest gains. [1]
• DXY near 98.74 as safe-haven demand lingers. [2]
• 10-year yield hovers near 4.00%; gold softer, oil firmer into U.S. open. [4]
How the Prior Session Closed
• SPX +1.10% to 6,735; just shy of its record close. [5]
• DJI +1.10%; IXIC +1.40%; small caps outperformed with Russell 2000 +1.90%. [5]
• Tone: earnings optimism and calmer rates supported breadth. [5]
• Top SPX Winner: SMCI (Super Micro Computer) +6.90% (Information Technology) [6]
• Bottom SPX Loser: APP (AppLovin) −5.60% (Communication Services) [7]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close
• G → G Fund: monthly rate set by Treasury; see factsheet.
• F → AGG: +0.45%
• C → S&P 500: +1.52%
• S → VXF: +2.98%
• I → ACWX: +1.87%
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• Follow DXY: sustained >98.5 could cap risk appetite into the bell. [2]
• Breadth on open: does small-cap strength persist after Monday’s pop. [5]
• Rates: a 10-year drift above 4.00% would likely weigh on duration-sensitive sectors. [4]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)
• 10/21 TUE — [Auction] Bills cluster (4W/8W/6W): tone check for front-end demand. [10]
• 10/22 WED 13:00 — [Auction] 20-Year Bond (reopen): watch tail/cover as supply returns. [10]
• 10/23 THU — [Macro] Several U.S. releases may be delayed amid shutdown; rely on private proxies. [11]
• 10/24 FRI — [Macro] CPI timing still uncertain given shutdown; any surprise print would move yields. [11]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-21: Barrons: “S&P 500 Futures Steady in Premarket Trading”
[2] 2025-10-21: marketwatch.com: “U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — Advanced Charts”
[3] 2025-10-20: reuters.com: “US judiciary begins furloughing employees during government shutdown”
[4] 2025-10-20: ycharts.com: “10 Year Treasury Rate”
[5] 2025-10-20: apnews.com: “How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 10/20/2025”
[6] 2025-10-21: barrons.com: “Super Micro Is 1 of the S&P 500’s Top Gainers”
[7] 2025-10-20: finance.yahoo.com: “S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today”
[8] 2025-10-01: tspfolio.com: “Current TSP G Fund interest rate”
[9] 2025-10-21: reuters.com: “iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) — Quote”
[10] 2025-08-30: home.treasury.gov: “Tentative Auction Schedule PDF”
[11] 2025-10-21: marketwatch.com: “U.S. Economic Calendar — Shutdown notices”
BriefTime: 2025-10-21 09:27 (ET)
Key Takeaway• U.S. equity futures are flat to slightly positive ahead of earnings heavyweights. [1]
• The dollar index holds near recent highs; watch for pressure on global risk. [2]
• Shutdown effects are widening: judiciary furloughs began, adding uncertainty around data flow. [3]
What Moved Overnight• Futures: SPX futures little changed; Europe mixed after Asia’s modest gains. [1]
• DXY near 98.74 as safe-haven demand lingers. [2]
• 10-year yield hovers near 4.00%; gold softer, oil firmer into U.S. open. [4]
How the Prior Session Closed• SPX +1.10% to 6,735; just shy of its record close. [5]
• DJI +1.10%; IXIC +1.40%; small caps outperformed with Russell 2000 +1.90%. [5]
• Tone: earnings optimism and calmer rates supported breadth. [5]
• Top SPX Winner: SMCI (Super Micro Computer) +6.90% (Information Technology) [6]
• Bottom SPX Loser: APP (AppLovin) −5.60% (Communication Services) [7]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close• G → G Fund: monthly rate set by Treasury; see factsheet.
• F → AGG: +0.45%
• C → S&P 500: +1.52%
• S → VXF: +2.98%
• I → ACWX: +1.87%
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For• Follow DXY: sustained >98.5 could cap risk appetite into the bell. [2]
• Breadth on open: does small-cap strength persist after Monday’s pop. [5]
• Rates: a 10-year drift above 4.00% would likely weigh on duration-sensitive sectors. [4]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)• 10/21 TUE — [Auction] Bills cluster (4W/8W/6W): tone check for front-end demand. [10]
• 10/22 WED 13:00 — [Auction] 20-Year Bond (reopen): watch tail/cover as supply returns. [10]
• 10/23 THU — [Macro] Several U.S. releases may be delayed amid shutdown; rely on private proxies. [11]
• 10/24 FRI — [Macro] CPI timing still uncertain given shutdown; any surprise print would move yields. [11]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-21: Barrons: “S&P 500 Futures Steady in Premarket Trading”
[2] 2025-10-21: marketwatch.com: “U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — Advanced Charts”
[3] 2025-10-20: reuters.com: “US judiciary begins furloughing employees during government shutdown”
[4] 2025-10-20: ycharts.com: “10 Year Treasury Rate”
[5] 2025-10-20: apnews.com: “How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 10/20/2025”
[6] 2025-10-21: barrons.com: “Super Micro Is 1 of the S&P 500’s Top Gainers”
[7] 2025-10-20: finance.yahoo.com: “S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today”
[8] 2025-10-01: tspfolio.com: “Current TSP G Fund interest rate”
[9] 2025-10-21: reuters.com: “iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) — Quote”
[10] 2025-08-30: home.treasury.gov: “Tentative Auction Schedule PDF”
[11] 2025-10-21: marketwatch.com: “U.S. Economic Calendar — Shutdown notices”
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