Intela: Pre-Bell 
Brief
Time: 2025-10-20 09:07 (ET)
Key Takeaway
• Dollar is firm near recent highs as futures edge up ahead of a busy auction week. [1]
• Last week finished higher: SPX logged a +0.53% Friday gain; banks bounced while gold miners slid. [2]
• Some economic releases remain delayed by the federal shutdown, so traders lean more on private proxies this week. [3]
What Moved Overnight
• U.S. equity futures point modestly higher into the open; Asia rallied, Europe is firmer. [4]
• DXY holds near 98.5 as traders eye upcoming Fed speak and auctions. [1]
• 10-year yield hovers just above 4.00% after stabilizing late last week. [5]
How the Prior Session Closed
• SPX +0.53% to 6,664; Dow +0.52%; Nasdaq +0.52%: best week in ~2 months. [2]
• 10-year yield ticked to ~4.02% from ~3.97% the day prior. [6]
• Leadership split: card networks and banks up; gold miners down on softer bullion. [7–8]
• Top SPX Winner: KVUE (Kenvue) +8.4% (Consumer Staples) [7]
• Bottom SPX Loser: NEM (Newmont) −7.6% (Materials) [7]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close
• G → G Fund: monthly rate set by Treasury; see factsheet [10]
• F → AGG: +0.53% [11]
• C → S&P 500: +1.70% [11]
• S → VXF: +1.87% [11]
• I → ACWX: +2.99% [11]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• Follow-through or fade in regional banks after Friday’s rebound; watch card networks. [2,7]
• DXY near 98.5: a firm dollar can pressure multinationals. [1]
• 10-year around 4.0%: tone into mid-week 20-year bond auction matters for equity breadth. [5–6,12]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)
• 10/20 MON — [Auction] 13- and 26-week bills: first liquidity test of the week. [12]
• 10/22 WED — [Auction] 20-Year Treasury Reopening: watch WI yield and tail. [12]
• 10/23 THU — [Auction] 5-Year TIPS: inflation-expectations check. [12]
• 10/24 FRI 13:45 — [Macro] Flash U.S. PMIs: private proxy while federal data lags. [13–15]
• This week — [Macro] Some government reports may slip due to shutdown; timing remains uncertain. [3]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-20: MarketWatch: “U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Overview”
[2] 2025-10-17: AP News: “How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 10/17/2025”
[3] 2025-10-07: Reuters: “Explainer: How a U.S. government shutdown affects economic data”
[4] 2025-10-20: Barron’s: “S&P 500 Futures Climb in Premarket Trading”
[5] 2025-10-20: MarketWatch: “U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Advanced Charts”
[6] 2025-10-20: MarketWatch: “U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Historical Quotes”
[7] 2025-10-18: Investopedia: “S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today: Amex Hits Record; Oracle, Newmont Plunge”
[8] 2025-10-19: Nasdaq.com: “Stocks Settle Higher as Bank Worries and Trade Tensions Recede”
[9] 2025-10-20: MarketWatch: “U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Overview”
[10] 2025-10-01: TSPFolio: “Current TSP G Fund interest rate”
[11] 2025-10-20: Mixed sources: “SPX history; VXF history; ACWX history; AGG history”
[12] 2025-10-20: U.S. Treasury: “Tentative Auction Schedule”
[13] 2025-10-19: S&P Global: “Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 20 October 2025”
[14] 2025-10-19: FXStreet: “United States S&P Global Services PMI”
[15] 2025-10-13: S&P Global PMI: “Monthly PMI Bulletin (October flash due Oct 24)”
BriefTime: 2025-10-20 09:07 (ET)
Key Takeaway• Dollar is firm near recent highs as futures edge up ahead of a busy auction week. [1]
• Last week finished higher: SPX logged a +0.53% Friday gain; banks bounced while gold miners slid. [2]
• Some economic releases remain delayed by the federal shutdown, so traders lean more on private proxies this week. [3]
What Moved Overnight• U.S. equity futures point modestly higher into the open; Asia rallied, Europe is firmer. [4]
• DXY holds near 98.5 as traders eye upcoming Fed speak and auctions. [1]
• 10-year yield hovers just above 4.00% after stabilizing late last week. [5]
How the Prior Session Closed• SPX +0.53% to 6,664; Dow +0.52%; Nasdaq +0.52%: best week in ~2 months. [2]
• 10-year yield ticked to ~4.02% from ~3.97% the day prior. [6]
• Leadership split: card networks and banks up; gold miners down on softer bullion. [7–8]
• Top SPX Winner: KVUE (Kenvue) +8.4% (Consumer Staples) [7]
• Bottom SPX Loser: NEM (Newmont) −7.6% (Materials) [7]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close• G → G Fund: monthly rate set by Treasury; see factsheet [10]
• F → AGG: +0.53% [11]
• C → S&P 500: +1.70% [11]
• S → VXF: +1.87% [11]
• I → ACWX: +2.99% [11]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For• Follow-through or fade in regional banks after Friday’s rebound; watch card networks. [2,7]
• DXY near 98.5: a firm dollar can pressure multinationals. [1]
• 10-year around 4.0%: tone into mid-week 20-year bond auction matters for equity breadth. [5–6,12]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)• 10/20 MON — [Auction] 13- and 26-week bills: first liquidity test of the week. [12]
• 10/22 WED — [Auction] 20-Year Treasury Reopening: watch WI yield and tail. [12]
• 10/23 THU — [Auction] 5-Year TIPS: inflation-expectations check. [12]
• 10/24 FRI 13:45 — [Macro] Flash U.S. PMIs: private proxy while federal data lags. [13–15]
• This week — [Macro] Some government reports may slip due to shutdown; timing remains uncertain. [3]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-20: MarketWatch: “U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Overview”
[2] 2025-10-17: AP News: “How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 10/17/2025”
[3] 2025-10-07: Reuters: “Explainer: How a U.S. government shutdown affects economic data”
[4] 2025-10-20: Barron’s: “S&P 500 Futures Climb in Premarket Trading”
[5] 2025-10-20: MarketWatch: “U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Advanced Charts”
[6] 2025-10-20: MarketWatch: “U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Historical Quotes”
[7] 2025-10-18: Investopedia: “S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today: Amex Hits Record; Oracle, Newmont Plunge”
[8] 2025-10-19: Nasdaq.com: “Stocks Settle Higher as Bank Worries and Trade Tensions Recede”
[9] 2025-10-20: MarketWatch: “U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Overview”
[10] 2025-10-01: TSPFolio: “Current TSP G Fund interest rate”
[11] 2025-10-20: Mixed sources: “SPX history; VXF history; ACWX history; AGG history”
[12] 2025-10-20: U.S. Treasury: “Tentative Auction Schedule”
[13] 2025-10-19: S&P Global: “Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 20 October 2025”
[14] 2025-10-19: FXStreet: “United States S&P Global Services PMI”
[15] 2025-10-13: S&P Global PMI: “Monthly PMI Bulletin (October flash due Oct 24)”
