Intela: Pre-Bell 
Brief
Time: 2025-10-15 07:30 (ET)
Key Takeaway
• Markets are jittery as the continuing U.S. government shutdown is already denting economic activity and data flow. [1]
• Fed Chair Powell signaled slower hiring and leaned toward further easing, keeping rate-cut odds alive. [2]
• Futures climbed and yields eased into the open while the dollar held near recent highs. [3]
SPX Daily: Stuck in the middle of the 50% Fri-pop Mon-Drop
What Moved Overnight
• Shutdown fallout widened: housing closings and flood-insurance operations show tangible disruption and private proxies are filling the data gap. [4]
• Bond breadth: the broad aggregate ETF AGG has been little changed over five days: −0.34%. [5]
• Currency: the dollar index has firmed on the week: DXY five-day change roughly +0.29%. [6]
How the Prior Session Closed
• Markets closed mixed: financials rallied on bank beats while tech lagged after trade-tension headlines. [7]
• Breadth narrowed into the close; small-cap action was uneven. [7]
• VIX futures rose in after-hours; risk premium rebuilt into the overnight. [7]
• Top SPX Winner: WFC (Wells Fargo) +7.20% (Financials). [8]
• Bottom SPX Loser: NVDA (NVIDIA) −4.00% (Information Technology). [8]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close
• G → G Fund: monthly rate set by Treasury; see factsheet (G Fund rates moved higher this cycle). [10]
• F → AGG: −0.34%. [5]
• C → S&P 500 (SPX): −1.05% (5-day, close-to-close). [9]
• S → VXF: +0.57% (5-day). [11]
• I → ACWX: −1.01% (5-day). [12]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• 10-year Treasury reopening/auction results (10-Year NOTE: 10/15): watch stop-through and indirect bidder demand. [13]
• Fed-sensitive names and bank stocks: monitor post-earnings flow into regional banks versus large cap tech. [7]
• Dollar reaction to any fresh shutdown headlines: quick swings can reset cross-asset flows into EM and commodity FX. [4]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)
• {10/15 Wed} — [Auction] 10-Year Note auction: market impact via stop-through and skew. [13]
• {10/16 Thu} — [Macro] Fed Beige Book and regional reads: watch for private-data cues while government prints remain limited. [7]
• {10/17 Fri} — [Macro] Continued private payroll proxies and labor-market updates while official prints may be delayed by the shutdown. [4]
• None in the next 5 days that are expected to be delayed beyond market relevance due solely to the shutdown. [4]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-13: Reuters: “US Treasury chief says government shutdown is hitting economy”
[2] 2025-10-15: AP: “Slowdown in US hiring suggests economy still needs rate cuts, Fed's Powell says”
[3] 2025-10-15: Barron's: “S&P 500 Futures Climb in Premarket Trading; Dollar Tree, BrightSpring Hlth Svcs Lead”
[4] 2025-10-15: Reuters: “Data darkness in US spreads a global shadow”
[5] n.d.: TradingView: “iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) — 5-day change”
[6] n.d.: TradingView: “DXY — U.S. Dollar Index chart and 5-day change”
[7] 2025-10-14: Barron's: “Review and Preview: Stocks Get Seared”
[8] 2025-10-14: Investopedia: “S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today: Nvidia and Intel Drop as Tech Stocks Falter; Wells Fargo Pops”
[9] 2025-10-14: Investing.com: “S&P 500 Historical Data (used for 5-day calculation)”
[10] 2025-10-14: TSP Data Center: “Latest Monthly TSP Performance and G Fund info”
[11] 2025-10-14: Investing.com: “VXF Historical Data (5-day) ”
[12] 2025-10-14: BlackRock / iShares: “ACWX NAV & performance”
[13] n.d.: U.S. Treasury: “Tentative Auction Schedule (Treasury) — 10-Year NOTE on 2025-10-15”
BriefTime: 2025-10-15 07:30 (ET)
Key Takeaway• Markets are jittery as the continuing U.S. government shutdown is already denting economic activity and data flow. [1]
• Fed Chair Powell signaled slower hiring and leaned toward further easing, keeping rate-cut odds alive. [2]
• Futures climbed and yields eased into the open while the dollar held near recent highs. [3]
SPX Daily: Stuck in the middle of the 50% Fri-pop Mon-Drop
What Moved Overnight• Shutdown fallout widened: housing closings and flood-insurance operations show tangible disruption and private proxies are filling the data gap. [4]
• Bond breadth: the broad aggregate ETF AGG has been little changed over five days: −0.34%. [5]
• Currency: the dollar index has firmed on the week: DXY five-day change roughly +0.29%. [6]
How the Prior Session Closed• Markets closed mixed: financials rallied on bank beats while tech lagged after trade-tension headlines. [7]
• Breadth narrowed into the close; small-cap action was uneven. [7]
• VIX futures rose in after-hours; risk premium rebuilt into the overnight. [7]
• Top SPX Winner: WFC (Wells Fargo) +7.20% (Financials). [8]
• Bottom SPX Loser: NVDA (NVIDIA) −4.00% (Information Technology). [8]
TSP Fund Proxy 5-Day Stats close-to-close• G → G Fund: monthly rate set by Treasury; see factsheet (G Fund rates moved higher this cycle). [10]
• F → AGG: −0.34%. [5]
• C → S&P 500 (SPX): −1.05% (5-day, close-to-close). [9]
• S → VXF: +0.57% (5-day). [11]
• I → ACWX: −1.01% (5-day). [12]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For• 10-year Treasury reopening/auction results (10-Year NOTE: 10/15): watch stop-through and indirect bidder demand. [13]
• Fed-sensitive names and bank stocks: monitor post-earnings flow into regional banks versus large cap tech. [7]
• Dollar reaction to any fresh shutdown headlines: quick swings can reset cross-asset flows into EM and commodity FX. [4]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)• {10/15 Wed} — [Auction] 10-Year Note auction: market impact via stop-through and skew. [13]
• {10/16 Thu} — [Macro] Fed Beige Book and regional reads: watch for private-data cues while government prints remain limited. [7]
• {10/17 Fri} — [Macro] Continued private payroll proxies and labor-market updates while official prints may be delayed by the shutdown. [4]
• None in the next 5 days that are expected to be delayed beyond market relevance due solely to the shutdown. [4]
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025-10-13: Reuters: “US Treasury chief says government shutdown is hitting economy”
[2] 2025-10-15: AP: “Slowdown in US hiring suggests economy still needs rate cuts, Fed's Powell says”
[3] 2025-10-15: Barron's: “S&P 500 Futures Climb in Premarket Trading; Dollar Tree, BrightSpring Hlth Svcs Lead”
[4] 2025-10-15: Reuters: “Data darkness in US spreads a global shadow”
[5] n.d.: TradingView: “iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) — 5-day change”
[6] n.d.: TradingView: “DXY — U.S. Dollar Index chart and 5-day change”
[7] 2025-10-14: Barron's: “Review and Preview: Stocks Get Seared”
[8] 2025-10-14: Investopedia: “S&P 500 Gains and Losses Today: Nvidia and Intel Drop as Tech Stocks Falter; Wells Fargo Pops”
[9] 2025-10-14: Investing.com: “S&P 500 Historical Data (used for 5-day calculation)”
[10] 2025-10-14: TSP Data Center: “Latest Monthly TSP Performance and G Fund info”
[11] 2025-10-14: Investing.com: “VXF Historical Data (5-day) ”
[12] 2025-10-14: BlackRock / iShares: “ACWX NAV & performance”
[13] n.d.: U.S. Treasury: “Tentative Auction Schedule (Treasury) — 10-Year NOTE on 2025-10-15”
