McDuck
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Patience still key in bear markets
* Nils Pratley
* The Guardian,
* Wednesday July 9, 2008
Buy when there is blood on the streets, advised Sir John Templeton, the celebrated investor and philanthropist whose death at the age of 95 was announced yesterday. It is excellent advice, as Templeton proved time and again, and a few market shrewdies are asking whether current conditions are sufficiently bloody to be tempting.
Bad news arrives daily. Choose your own lowlight: the Marks & Spencer profits warning; the frantic attempts to refinance Bradford & Bingley; the desperate plight of the housebuilders, now cutting jobs by the thousand; the collapse in advertising revenues reported by Trinity Mirror; and the warning yesterday from Savills that the credit squeeze is now hitting property markets in continental Europe and Asia.
The bigger picture is equally gloomy. Business confidence, house prices and retail sales are falling. Even the UK manufacturing sector - the last bright spark in the economy - has turned downwards. And now the US Federal Reserve tells us that emergency lending facilities for Wall Street investment banks will remain open until 2009. A few might regard the Fed's action as good news (Wall Street was undecided yesterday), but the real message is surely that the financial emergency isn't over.
Those looking for light at the end of the tunnel have to squint very hard indeed. Their best idea is that the commodities boom may be about to end. You can see it in the miners' share prices: Rio Tinto, for example, was down 5.6% yesterday and is now 23% below its peak. Bad news for Rio, but maybe better news for everybody else if the implication is that the price of raw materials is set to fall.
That might relieve inflationary pressures, and so allow central banks to deliver the cuts in interest rates that the UK economy, in particular, would seem to need to avoid recession.
The problem with this call is that it feels terribly early. The price of oil may have fallen in the past few days but, at $138 (£70) a barrel, it is still blowing inflation through the global economy. A return to $100 seems a reasonable punt - after all, the price is now affecting demand - but it hasn't happened yet. Even if it does, it will take time to feed into the inflation numbers.
In the meantime, a lot can happen. It is too easy to imagine another round of write-downs and bad debts at the banks. Where are the credit card defaults? Hardly anybody has mentioned them, but they must be coming. The decline in property prices looks only to have begun. Will it be 10% in the UK or 20%, or even 30%?
It's encouraging that market analysts at Morgan Stanley can publish a piece called "the big snapback may not be far away". Closer inspection, however, reveals they are talking about rotation between sectors, not the market itself. Their model on market timing - which has had a splendid record over the past year - is not yet signalling a buying opportunity. Patience, as they say, remains key in bear markets.
1913 thesis
Could today's annual meeting of the London Stock Exchange be the last one at which the chief executive, Dame Clara Furse, can boast a market share of more than 50% of the shares traded in London?
A look at the LSE's own share price suggests a few people think the answer is "yes". From almost £20 at the turn of the year, the LSE stands at 671p. Bear markets are terrible for stock exchanges - flotations dry up and the value of the shares being traded falls - but a decline in value of two-thirds in six months suggests a serious loss of confidence.
This is strange in one sense. There has been plenty of time to assess the LSE's chances of retaining its current slice of the pie - about 70%. The arrival of competition has hardly been a secret. The fact that Turquoise, the venture backed by the big investment banks, is within a month or two of its launch should not have induced panic. The rival Chi-X platform is up and running and the LSE's volumes haven't gone into freefall.
Yet the revolutionaries will talk. At a presentation yesterday, Simon Brickles of Plus Markets, who has been sniping away at the LSE for years in small and mid-sized stocks, compared Europe's incumbent stock exchanges with Europe's royal families in 1913. They thought their privileged world would never change, and then it did.
The next year will reveal whether the 1913 thesis is correct. For Furse, the stakes could not be higher. Her critics say she should have sold the LSE when she could; that strategic partnerships overseas should have been struck; that the merger with Borsa Italiana was a sideshow. But the coming scrap in her backyard is the big one. The share price looks wrong - but which way?
You want a guess? Don't write off Clara yet. The revolution will take time.
This article appeared in the Guardian on Wednesday July 09 2008 on p25 of the Financial section. It was last updated at 00:05 on July 09 2008.
* Nils Pratley
* The Guardian,
* Wednesday July 9, 2008
Buy when there is blood on the streets, advised Sir John Templeton, the celebrated investor and philanthropist whose death at the age of 95 was announced yesterday. It is excellent advice, as Templeton proved time and again, and a few market shrewdies are asking whether current conditions are sufficiently bloody to be tempting.
Bad news arrives daily. Choose your own lowlight: the Marks & Spencer profits warning; the frantic attempts to refinance Bradford & Bingley; the desperate plight of the housebuilders, now cutting jobs by the thousand; the collapse in advertising revenues reported by Trinity Mirror; and the warning yesterday from Savills that the credit squeeze is now hitting property markets in continental Europe and Asia.
The bigger picture is equally gloomy. Business confidence, house prices and retail sales are falling. Even the UK manufacturing sector - the last bright spark in the economy - has turned downwards. And now the US Federal Reserve tells us that emergency lending facilities for Wall Street investment banks will remain open until 2009. A few might regard the Fed's action as good news (Wall Street was undecided yesterday), but the real message is surely that the financial emergency isn't over.
Those looking for light at the end of the tunnel have to squint very hard indeed. Their best idea is that the commodities boom may be about to end. You can see it in the miners' share prices: Rio Tinto, for example, was down 5.6% yesterday and is now 23% below its peak. Bad news for Rio, but maybe better news for everybody else if the implication is that the price of raw materials is set to fall.
That might relieve inflationary pressures, and so allow central banks to deliver the cuts in interest rates that the UK economy, in particular, would seem to need to avoid recession.
The problem with this call is that it feels terribly early. The price of oil may have fallen in the past few days but, at $138 (£70) a barrel, it is still blowing inflation through the global economy. A return to $100 seems a reasonable punt - after all, the price is now affecting demand - but it hasn't happened yet. Even if it does, it will take time to feed into the inflation numbers.
In the meantime, a lot can happen. It is too easy to imagine another round of write-downs and bad debts at the banks. Where are the credit card defaults? Hardly anybody has mentioned them, but they must be coming. The decline in property prices looks only to have begun. Will it be 10% in the UK or 20%, or even 30%?
It's encouraging that market analysts at Morgan Stanley can publish a piece called "the big snapback may not be far away". Closer inspection, however, reveals they are talking about rotation between sectors, not the market itself. Their model on market timing - which has had a splendid record over the past year - is not yet signalling a buying opportunity. Patience, as they say, remains key in bear markets.
1913 thesis
Could today's annual meeting of the London Stock Exchange be the last one at which the chief executive, Dame Clara Furse, can boast a market share of more than 50% of the shares traded in London?
A look at the LSE's own share price suggests a few people think the answer is "yes". From almost £20 at the turn of the year, the LSE stands at 671p. Bear markets are terrible for stock exchanges - flotations dry up and the value of the shares being traded falls - but a decline in value of two-thirds in six months suggests a serious loss of confidence.
This is strange in one sense. There has been plenty of time to assess the LSE's chances of retaining its current slice of the pie - about 70%. The arrival of competition has hardly been a secret. The fact that Turquoise, the venture backed by the big investment banks, is within a month or two of its launch should not have induced panic. The rival Chi-X platform is up and running and the LSE's volumes haven't gone into freefall.
Yet the revolutionaries will talk. At a presentation yesterday, Simon Brickles of Plus Markets, who has been sniping away at the LSE for years in small and mid-sized stocks, compared Europe's incumbent stock exchanges with Europe's royal families in 1913. They thought their privileged world would never change, and then it did.
The next year will reveal whether the 1913 thesis is correct. For Furse, the stakes could not be higher. Her critics say she should have sold the LSE when she could; that strategic partnerships overseas should have been struck; that the merger with Borsa Italiana was a sideshow. But the coming scrap in her backyard is the big one. The share price looks wrong - but which way?
You want a guess? Don't write off Clara yet. The revolution will take time.
This article appeared in the Guardian on Wednesday July 09 2008 on p25 of the Financial section. It was last updated at 00:05 on July 09 2008.