04/18/13
After only brief encounters with volatility this year, it is picking this month as we are seeing triple digit moves in the Dow regularly. The Dow lost 138-points yesterday, which was 0.9%, but the broader indices were hit much harder.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 149"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.76%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) fell below the rising support line and the 20-day EMA, but found support just above its 50-day EMA and closed near the bottom of the trading channel. You can see that volume has been quite heavy on down days, and as we've talked about before, it probably means the big money is doing a lot of this selling.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps made a lower low yesterday so they could not break back above their 50-day EMA, and instead they fell back below their rising support line. The next test would be the lows from back in February.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar finally showed some strength after a three week pullback. The 200-day EMA has offered some support so far on the UUP dollar ETF. When the dollar rises, it puts a little extra pressure on stock prices, and even more so on the I-fund, which lost 1.76% yesterday and was the worst performing fund.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Odd Lot Short Sales indicator is showing some extreme bearish readings, which tends to be bullish since this is considered a dumb money indicator. From sentimentTrader.com:
"Odd Lot Short Sales, those bets against the market that are executed for less than 100 shares at a time, have started to spike (we use an inverse scale on the site). It wouldn't take much more of an increase to match the most extreme levels of the past three years."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
As I mentioned yesterday, my analysis won't being overly profound in the near future. I am really just watching to see which way the market wants to break. The sentiment indicators suggest we should be buying, but the charts are nearing break down points. I am not in the mood to try to be a hero at the moment but that could change if I see something I like.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
After only brief encounters with volatility this year, it is picking this month as we are seeing triple digit moves in the Dow regularly. The Dow lost 138-points yesterday, which was 0.9%, but the broader indices were hit much harder.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 149"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.76%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) fell below the rising support line and the 20-day EMA, but found support just above its 50-day EMA and closed near the bottom of the trading channel. You can see that volume has been quite heavy on down days, and as we've talked about before, it probably means the big money is doing a lot of this selling.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps made a lower low yesterday so they could not break back above their 50-day EMA, and instead they fell back below their rising support line. The next test would be the lows from back in February.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The dollar finally showed some strength after a three week pullback. The 200-day EMA has offered some support so far on the UUP dollar ETF. When the dollar rises, it puts a little extra pressure on stock prices, and even more so on the I-fund, which lost 1.76% yesterday and was the worst performing fund.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Odd Lot Short Sales indicator is showing some extreme bearish readings, which tends to be bullish since this is considered a dumb money indicator. From sentimentTrader.com:
"Odd Lot Short Sales, those bets against the market that are executed for less than 100 shares at a time, have started to spike (we use an inverse scale on the site). It wouldn't take much more of an increase to match the most extreme levels of the past three years."
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
As I mentioned yesterday, my analysis won't being overly profound in the near future. I am really just watching to see which way the market wants to break. The sentiment indicators suggest we should be buying, but the charts are nearing break down points. I am not in the mood to try to be a hero at the moment but that could change if I see something I like.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
