Per Diem: Bears Ate My Lunch

Bears ate my lunch, but didn't raid the pantry…

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11th trading day of March

• SPX, 65% winning ratio with .38% average returns
• R2K, 50% winning ratio with -.19% average returns
• AGG, 55% winning ratio with -.01% average returns

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Monday

• SPX, 55% winning ratio with -.06% average returns
• R2K, 64% winning ratio with .01% average returns
• AGG, 55% winning ratio with .01% average returns

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AGG, Daily

• Closing out the week up, Friday's last-hour sell-off didn't confirm a close above trendline BC and volume was heavy
  
• Short-term Neutral - Price is down -.61% and roughly 50% of the 15-Day Trading range
• Mid-term Bearish - Price is down -.41% and less than 50% of the 2 Month price range
• Long-term Bullish - Price is up 2.74% and greater than 50% of the 6-Month price range

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SPX, Daily

• Closing out the week down, we have our second daily close above both 50% of wave AB and the Fibonacci Parallel Price Channel
• Short-term Bearish - Price is down -2.70% and less than 50% of the 15-Day Trading range
• Mid-term Neutral - Price is up 1.50% and roughly 50% of the 2 Month price range
• Long-term Bullish - Price is up 2.80% and greater than 50% of the 6-Month price range

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W4500, Daily

• Closing out the week up, the 1072-1082 price band has held up well as support, but we need a close above trendline1-2
• Short-term Neutral - Price is down -.97% and roughly 50% of the 15-Day Trading range
• Mid-term Bullish - Price is up 4.53% and greater than 50% of the 2 Month price range
• Long-term Bullish - Price is up 4.07% and greater than 50% of the 6-Month price range

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Transports, Daily

• Closing out the week up, we are back above the 8883-8957 price band, we've also been hugging and need a close above the trendline 5-6
• Short-term Bearish - Price is down -2.04% and less than 50% of the 15-Day Trading range
• Mid-term Bullish - Price is up 2.05% and greater than 50% of the 2 Month price range
• Long-term Bullish - Price is up 4.55% and greater than 50% of the 6-Month price range

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NASDAQ 100, Daily

• Closing out the week down, the NASDAQ 100 has underperformed in the short-term
• Short-term Bearish - Price is down -2.83% and less than 50% of the 15-Day Trading range
• Mid-term Bullish - Price is up 3.57% and greater than 50% of the 2 Month price range
• Long-term Bullish - Price is up 5.43% and greater than 50% of the 6-Month price range

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Trends come in many different forms, here is a chart of the 15-minute price performance over the past 11 days. Using the pink Linear line, we can see price underperforms early in the session, then rallies into the close. Notice the stark difference between 2:45-3:00, a scalper's dream come true.



The strongest tactical move is always the one in which you reap the highest gain at the lowest cost…Tuvok