PCE Prices / Personal Income and Spending

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Fed’s key inflation gauge rose 2.5% in June from a year ago, easing path to rate cut

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% in June and was up 2.5% from a year ago, with the annual rate showing a slight decline from the prior month.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year, both also in line with expectations.

Personal income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate. Spending increased 0.3%, meeting the forecast, while the personal savings rate decreased to 3.4%.
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PCE inflation June 2024:
 
US Core PCE Price Index (Y/Y) Aug: 2.7% (est 2.7%; prev 2.6%)

- Core PCE Price Index (M/M) Aug: 0.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)
- PCE Price Index (Y/Y) Aug: 2.2% (est 2.3%; prev2.5 %)
- PCE Price Index (M/M) Aug: 0.1% (est 0.1%; prev 0.2%)

US Personal Income Aug: 0.2% (est 0.4%; prev 0.3%)

- Personal Spending Aug: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.5%)
- Real Personal Spending Aug: 0.1% (est 0.1%; prev 0.4%)
 
Key Fed inflation rate hits 2.1% in September, as expected

The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with Dow Jones estimates.

However, the core inflation rate was at 2.7% after the measure increased 0.3% on a monthly basis.

Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 216,000 for the week ending Oct. 26, a decrease of 12,000 and below the forecast for 230,000.
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Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rises to 2.3% annually, meeting expectations

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a broad measure that the Fed prefers as its inflation gauge, increased 0.2% on the month and showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%. Both were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast, though the annual rate was higher than the 2.1% level in September.

Excluding food and energy, core inflation showed even stronger readings, with the increase at 0.3% on a monthly basis and an annual reading of 2.8%. Both also met expectations. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the prior month.
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PCE Prices
Actual: 0.2% | B.com Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0.2%

PCE Prices - Core
Actual: 0.3% | B.com Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3%

Personal Income
Actual: 0.6% | B.com Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3%

Personal Spending
Actual: 0.4% | B.com Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.6% | Revised From: 0.5%
 
Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected

The PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed an increase of just 0.1% from October and a 2.4% annual rate, both below expectations.

Excluding food and energy, core PCE also increased 0.1% monthly and was 2.8% higher from a year ago, with both readings being 0.1 percentage point below the forecast.

Personal income rose 0.3%, short of the 0.4% estimate. Personal expenditures increased 0.4%, one-tenth of a percentage point below the forecast.
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Key Fed measure shows core inflation at 2.8%, in line with expectations

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 2.6% on a year-over-year basis in December, while core PCE was at 2.8%, both in line with expectations but well ahead of the Fed’s 2% target.

Personal income climbed 0.4% as forecast, while spending rose 0.7%.
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Fed’s favorite core inflation measure hits 2.6% in January, as expected

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, increased 0.3% for the month and showed a 2.5% annual rate.

Excluding food and energy, core PCE also rose 0.3% for the month and was at 2.6% annually. Fed officials more closely follow the core measure as a better indicator of longer-term trends.

Personal income posted rose 0.9% against expectations for a 0.4% increase. However, the higher incomes did not translate into spending, which decreased 0.2%, versus the forecast for a 0.1% gain.
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Highlights
  • Personal income increased 0.8% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.9%) in January.
  • Personal spending rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) following a downwardly revised 0.3% decline (from -0.2%) in January.
  • The PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month, as expected, which left it up 2.5% year-over-year, unchanged from January.
  • The core-PCE Price Index jumped 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), which left it up 2.8% year-over-year versus an upwardly revised 2.7% (from 2.6%) in January.

PCE Prices For: Feb
Actual: 0.3%
B.com Forecast: 0.3%
B.com Cons: 0.3%
Prior: 0.3%

PCE Prices - Core For: Feb
Actual: 0.4%
B.com Forecast: 0.3%
B.com Cons: 0.4%
Prior: 0.3%

Personal Income For: Feb
Actual: 0.8%
B.com Forecast: 0.3%
B.com Cons: 0.4%
Prior: 0.7%
Revised From: 0.9%

Personal Spending For: Feb
Actual: 0.4%
B.com Forecast: 0.7%
B.com Cons: 0.6%
Prior: -0.3%
Revised From: -0.2%

Source:

Briefing.com

www.briefing.com www.briefing.com
 
Personal Income
Actual: 0.5%
B.com Forecast: 0.5%
B.com Cons: 0.4%
Prior: 0.7%
Revised From: 0.8%

Personal Spending
Actual: 0.7%
B.com Forecast: 0.4%
B.com Cons: 0.4%
Prior: 0.5%
Revised From: 0.4%

PCE Prices
Actual: 0.0%
B.com Forecast: 0.0%
B.com Cons: 0.0%
Prior: 0.5%
Revised From: 0.3%

PCE Prices - Core
Actual: 0.0%
B.com Forecast: 0.0%
B.com Cons: 0.1%
Prior: 0.5%
Revised From: 0.4%

Highlights
  • Personal income increased 0.5% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after increasing a revised 0.7% (from 0.8%) in February.
  • Personal spending rose 0.7% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after increasing a revised 0.5% (from 0.4%) in February.
  • The PCE Price Index was unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%), which left it up 2.3% year-over-year versus a revised 2.7% (from 2.5%) in February.
  • The core-PCE Price Index was also unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), which left it up 2.6% year-over-year versus a revised 3.0% (from 2.8%) in February.
Key Factors
  • The PCE Price Index for Goods was down 0.5% month-over-month and down 0.3% year-over-year versus up 0.4% in February.
  • The PCE Price Index for Services was up 0.2% month-over-month, leaving it up 3.5% year-over-year versus 3.8% in February.
  • Wages and salaries increased 0.5% month-over-month after increasing 0.4% in February.
  • Rental income increased 0.7% month-over-month after increasing 0.8% in February.
  • Personal interest income rose 0.4% month-over-month for the second consecutive month. Personal dividend income was also up 0.4% month-over-month after increasing 0.3% in February.
  • Real disposable income was up 0.5% month-over-month and was up 1.7% year-over-year. Real personal spending increased 0.7% month-over-month and was up 3.3% year-over-year.
  • The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, decreased to 3.9% from 4.1%.
Big Picture
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it showed an acceleration in spending as consumers prepared for the implementation of tariffs. The PCE Price Index decelerated to 2.3% year-over-year from 2.7% while the core PCE Price Index decelerated to 2.6% year-over-year from 3.0%, making for a welcome sight.

Source: Briefing.com
 
So, this sounds like good news, but then they claim it’s because of people front running tariffs? Could it be something else?


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