P&F Chart School

[James48843]

Getting real ugly.

Now showing long tail down, but the 795 number hasn't been revised yet. That's still the target price objective, but remember, the last "long tail down" we had ended up being double the distance down than was the price objective said.

View attachment 5069
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I'm getting sick.​

 

[James48843]

I hereby declare that the Bear Market is over.

Ended.

Done.

Finished.

Kaput.

Completed.

Over with.

There. It's the end.

We've hit rock bottom.

There is nothing left but upside ahead.

I hereby declare it. --And therefore, it must be true.

Cause I said so.

So there. :nuts:

Is it over now?

 

[Guest2]

Dad, Are We There Yet ? :nuts:
All signs say it to be true, but one thing sticks in my sides !
We haven't even broken this weeks Monday closing price in the S&P !
The Wilshire4500 and EAFE failed to reach it as well !
Dad, Are We There Yet ? :nuts:​

 

[alevin]

Is it over now?

The kit is way too cute for words and pose is way too apropos for this market. Wonderful, thanks for the smile.

 

[luv2read]

TSPTALK discoverz LOLCATS. Go here for more fun.

www.Icanhascheezburger.com

http://ihasahotdog.com/

 

[Buster]

Cute..very very cute..

 

[ATCJeff]

It's over. Can I have a 15% bear rally?

 

[Guest2]

It's over. Can I have a 15% bear rally?

Yes you can, but its only legal in Montana ! :nuts:

 

[ATCJeff]

Yes you can, but its only legal in Montana ! :nuts:

Always wanted to see Montana. Don't think I'll make it that fall north and west this Spring as I chase tornadoes in the corn belt.

 

[James48843]

As we talked about a few days ago- the bearish price objective for this cycle is 795. We're almost there- we're just about ten points above that level now.

View attachment 5100

If history is any example, we'll reach down to the 795 mark shortly. The question then becomes, what happens then? The last time we reached a downside price objective, the market kept going down and created a long-tail down. Bad news. So we should be able to make it to the 795 mark, and perhaps then we'll get the reversal. I certainly hope so.

The bad news is that the chart is showing the next upturn should be pretty weak. Still only expecting an upside to reach up to the 900 level, if we're lucky.

Good luck.

Tell me when this junk is over with, please.


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[James48843]

ANd I'm pretty sure I'm going to change my avatar to this:

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[James48843]

Man, that was ugly last week.

The good news is we're off the low. And, if history is anything- we should see a nice pop back to the 875 range soon.

Here is the chart for today.

View attachment 5120

Are we done yet? I don't know. I DO know that we've had a lot of blood out there. And we're due for a little relief.

Let's cross our fingers and hope the worst is past us now.

Be careful out there.
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[ATCJeff]

How about 1160 range?

 

[James48843]

Ok- we're off that floor. Good.

But there isn't any follow through this morning. Still very weak response.

Here is this morning's chart. I am still seeing possible drift upward from here, but not a whole lot of energy behind that. Which leads me to believe we'll eek out perhaps an 870 to 875, and then that's it- down we'll go again, once we align with that trend I've noted in "peach" color.

What do you think? Have we hit bottom, or is this just a good place to scramble for lifeboats?

View attachment 5123

I'm thinking I might bail today, and try and clip another couple of percent better than the S&P 500 in a couple day move. I haven't used any moves yet this month, and this might be a chance.


Not decided yet, though.

What do you think? Are we setting up for a good clip move here?
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[James48843]

By the way- anybody remember when we last had a string of three positive days in a row?

It was at the tail end of last month- Oct 29,30,31. Right at Halloween.

Scary, isn't it? That its been a whole month to put three positive days in a row?

 

[poolman]

Ok- we're off that floor. Good.​

But there isn't any follow through this morning. Still very weak response.​

Here is this morning's chart. I am still seeing possible drift upward from here, but not a whole lot of energy behind that. Which leads me to believe we'll eek out perhaps an 870 to 875, and then that's it- down we'll go again, once we align with that trend I've noted in "peach" color.​

What do you think? Have we hit bottom, or is this just a good place to scramble for lifeboats?​

View attachment 5123​

I'm thinking I might bail today, and try and clip another couple of percent better than the S&P 500 in a couple day move. I haven't used any moves yet this month, and this might be a chance.​

Not decided yet, though.​

What do you think? Are we setting up for a good clip move here?​

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Well so far today is looking pretty good. Also if we close up today it means confirmation for the Bulls. Couple that with it being Thankgiving week I may let it ride.:nuts:

 

[James48843]

Holy Cow.

I just took a look at the "put to call" ratio this morning. It set a new record on the open with a tremendous wild swing.

View attachment 5124

Like, What the Duck, Chuck?

What's up with that?

Did we just have a major change this morning?

This has me even more confused. Is this a sign of a REAL reversal?




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[James48843]

Ok- the elevator ride up was nice, but it may be time to step off on the third floor here, and do some window shopping.

Today's rise got us right close into that 870-875 target area I was expecting. And we didn't QUITE hit the 875 mark, but close. So I think tomorrow we may drift ever so slightly up towards it. But then I think we'll come back down to earth soon, and the realization of all the bad news sinks back in again.

Here is today's chart. I'm about 75% sure I'm going to take money off the table tomorrow- and try to gain a "clip" after the bottom falls out again. The reason I say that is that we came back about 1/2 way from the last cycle down and up. That's on par with the size of these swings. But all month they have been happening waaaayyy too quick to try and use them to advantage. I think things will thin out and slow down just enough over the next couple days to try and actually make a play.

Anyway, here is the chart:

View attachment 5127

The one thing that threw me today is looking at the Put/Call ratio. It was at a VERY unusual level this morning, as you can see from the chart I posted above this message. That is not normal. So I don't know what weight to give that - is it a signal that something is fundementally changing in the trends, or was it simply a fluke this morning, as yesteday's jump became a shot heard round the world? Europe liked the overnight Citibank bailout- and Asian markets are following through with positive signs as I write this overnight. BUT...that said, little has changed fundementally. The markets are still sick. Obama's team is not yet in, and we've yet to see the worst of the credit market numbers as housing declines, foreclosures, and now consumer credit remain at high risk.

So, we'll see how things look just before noon. A slightly postive market and I'll most likely bail. A strongly negative market, and I will have already missed the opportunity.

We'lll see how it goes.

Good luck.








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[James48843]

the peak this morning was 868, just shy of the 870-875 I was thinking we'd reach.

That means the market is even softer than I thought, and we're about to head south again (sigh----missed the shot I had yesteday).

Even with the traditional holiday good cheer, looks like we won't make it a positive close three days in a row.

I'm jumping out today. Odds favor lower ahead, so I'm going to try and clip it.

Good luck to you.

 

[Guest2]

the peak this morning was 868, just shy of the 870-875 I was thinking we'd reach.

That means the market is even softer than I thought, and we're about to head south again (sigh----missed the shot I had yesteday).

Even with the traditional holiday good cheer, looks like we won't make it a positive close three days in a row.

I'm jumping out today. Odds favor lower ahead, so I'm going to try and clip it.

Good luck to you.

Oscar Video focused on the S&P500 and the downward channel that its
been trading in. Being at the top of the trading channel yesterday and
the wedge formation that developed, he believe the drop back down to
the lower end of the channel was likely. Even if we had a temporary
break out to the upside today. Based on your Chart analysis, it appears
your both on the same page. Thanks for everything James, you made my
decision to bail that much easier today.