Ozzyman's Account Talk

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ozzyman

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So I'm new here, and until now have just been randomly putting money into C and S fund.... I had no system, no charts, nothing...

As of today I am C 50% S 50%

I have decided to use a simple chart for buy and sell signals along with information I may come across along the way.

Heres an example of a chart I will be using:

View attachment 10315

This is what I'm using top track the S Fund..

I am using a EMA 5 and EMA 20, Basically anytime my 5 day average crosses below my 20 I will sell, anytime it moves higher than the 20 I will buy back in... I'm looking at volume and other things as well, but these wil be my major triggers. We will see how it works out and any suggestions on some different averages to look at are welcome! I was also looking at 5,35 but it wasn't giving me buy/sell signals early enough for my taste.

This is more of a buy and hold strategy I suppose but I'm hoping it will give me good returns.

As of now I am staying in C and S because my graphs still show higher prices and I don't see any decline(not major anyway) yet.

~Mike
 
S looks like it is about leveled out but C still looks like its climbing on my chart... used all my IFTs for the month so G 50% C 50% COB today.

Thank you S fund it has been a fun ride, see you again soon hopefully...
 
Good to see someone giving it a go by doing for themselves. For the free service you have 3 years of $EMW to work with, have you backtested your system?
 
JTH said:
Good to see someone giving it a go by doing for themselves. For the free service you have 3 years of $EMW to work with, have you backtested your system?
Click to expand...

Absolutely not... i'm coompletely new to all this....

but looking at the historical data I would have done well with the buy/sell signals listed below.... though of course it is a bit lagged because it is all based on a 5 day and 20 day weighted average.... It essentially shows a upward or downward trend but lags a few days behind.

Basically if I follow it I will always miss the lowest point by a bit and will miss the high by a bit, but in the end it should still turn profit.... We shall see...

today it looked like my two averages are coming close to a meet on the S fund plus it looks kinda lvld out, so thats why I pulled out of it....
 
With the lag in the TSP's EoB IFTs, you'd be surprised at the percental difference 1 day makes in momentum based trading systems. The truth is momentum based systems are great at protecting you in Bear markets, but they don't do so well at outperforming the indexes in Bull markets.
 
Despite C not looking so good this week, it still looks like a upward trend.. We will see if it comes back up this week.

I'm all out of IFTs so I'm leaving my 50% G 50% C in the hopes C will continue the trend up this month. We shall see! Besides I bought into C back in late Aug/early Sep so I'm still on the up...


JTH said:
With the lag in the TSP's EoB IFTs, you'd be surprised at the percental difference 1 day makes in momentum based trading systems. The truth is momentum based systems are great at protecting you in Bear markets, but they don't do so well at outperforming the indexes in Bull markets.
Click to expand...

yup I hear what you are saying. I hadn't looked at a chart ever until now, so any advice is more than welcome! I did some reading and added Bollinger Bands. Just adding this alone changed how I was looking at the chart. I'm doing a lot of reading on stockcharts.com "chart school" and will Definitely adjust what ever I need and look at new things to get better views at what the market is doing.
 
Was just doing some late night(i'm currently deployed so clocks are way off for me) reading before bed....

We have to go with the “no Hindenburg” crowd on this one. Additionally, Hindenburgs are supposed to cluster so one isolated signal is not really a true omen. Of course, they clustered in August and the stock market found a rather healthy bottom about a week later.
Click to expand...

http://blogs.forbes.com/investor/2010/12/15/another-hindenburg-omen-not-again/


The Hindenburg Omen's track record hasn't been sterling -- it was behind every market crash since 1987, but also has occurred many other times without a big downturn following. The Journal reports, "Market analysts said only about 25% of Omen appearances have led to stock-market declines that can be considered crashes."
Click to expand...

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/investing/hindenburg-omen-stock-crash-follow/19593800/
 
You do know that while deployed you ceiling cap into your TSP is $45K. And the money will continue to grow tax free in the account.
 
I'm officially out till Jan... see you then!

got a lot of work to do out here(bad weather and jets don't mix), not enough time to track and time this topper, so I'm taking my gains for the year...

Unfortunately I wasn't enrolled in the TSP Tracker until just lately but my returns so far this year in my TSP are 31%. Hoping for a good 2011!
 
The countdown begins!

T-minus 30 days till I come home from this deployment and see my wonderful Wife, 3 Daughters and 7 month old son(He was so little when I left)!

AS YOU WERE! Back to stocks......


I'm hanging in there, I think this market has some more room to move UP
 
Congrats man...enjoy it! Its all great until those pesky reintegration briefings :suspicious:
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Possible-Earnings-Season-etfguide-2930611396.html?x=0&.v=1

"To sum up, we are looking at a minefield covered by a beautiful blanket of flowers. The Fed - although it's failed to jolt the economy - has succeeded in inflating stocks (NYSEArca: VTI - News) and commodities (NYSEArca: DBA - News). It has served as fertilizer for fake growth.

But sentiment is indicative of a market ready to roll over. Similar sentiment readings and warnings by the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter in December 2008, January 2010, and April 2010 led to declines from 9 - 29%. Aside from Fed induced liquidity, there's not been much reason to believe this time will be different. The market's internal strength has been waning as various breadth indicators failed to confirmed the recent price highs."
Click to expand...

Might be time to rollover to safety.......
 
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