Overnight Futures

[JTH]

Yawn, too early, much can happen before the opening...

 

[Sensei]

Re: Futures

Still early, yes, but the S&P is now around -1.5%, which puts it near the 20 day SMA. It will be interesting to see if this offers any support.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: Futures

Nah, Big Ben will buy it up before noon probably...

Getting bought up real fast. I wouldn't be surprised to see an up day today...

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Futures

Getting bought up real fast. I wouldn't be surprised to see an up day today...

Only if the people of Cyprus, take their withdrawals and deposit it in our markets.

But hey, Cyprus hasn't finalized the vote and the may change it......based on the response.

 

[James48843]

I heard on the radio this morning (heard it on the radio so it must be true, eh? ) that the reason Cyprus was targeting bank accounts in this way is that large amounts of cash from Russian mafia were being held in Cyprus banks. The bank accounts are insured up to 100,000 Euros, so the only ones who are at risk are those with accounts over 100,000 euros, and the proposed tax is a sliding scale from 4% up to 10%- so only those accounts over a milion euros would be hit with the 10% rate. Banks are closed till tomorrow, and the Russian mafia guys are stuck not being able to move large sums around till they decide what to do.




Hmmm.....

Anyway- that's the story I heard this morning. Germans insisted on targeting where the money was. Here we go.


I am thinking we'll take a nice big hit today and tomorrow in the markets, and maybe Wednesday as well. We'll have to see where she goes...

 

[burrocrat]

I heard on the radio this morning (heard it on the radio so it must be true, eh? ) that the reason Cyprus was targeting bank accounts in this way is that large amounts of cash from Russian mafia were being held in Cyprus banks. The bank accounts are insured up to 100,000 Euros, so the only ones who are at risk are those with accounts over 100,000 euros, and the proposed tax is a sliding scale from 4% up to 10%- so only those accounts over a milion euros would be hit with the 10% rate. Banks are closed till tomorrow, and the Russian mafia guys are stuck not being able to move large sums around till they decide what to do.




Hmmm.....

Anyway- that's the story I heard this morning. Germans insisted on targeting where the money was. Here we go.


I am thinking we'll take a nice big hit today and tomorrow in the markets, and maybe Wednesday as well. We'll have to see where she goes...

if you're in the business of relieving russian mobsters of their cash it would be a good idea to beef up your security detail. perhaps that's why they delayed the vote.

 

[James48843]

Wow. All I can say is ...that is some incredible resistance to falling, isn't it?

I thought the market would tank much more than that.

That is real strength. Nice.

I may have to jump in right here so I don't miss the boat. Shucks....I am SUCH an easy mark, aren't I?

 

[dpmp]

I got out last Wed and regretted it. So I got back in this morning. . Will probably stay a while. Cross my fingers...

 

[James48843]

Cyprus deal cut- and futures respond postively.

S&P 500 futures now up about a half-cent.

Should be a positive day today.

 

[Frixxxx]

Cyprus deal cut- and futures respond postively.

S&P 500 futures now up about a half-cent.

Should be a positive day today.

Dollar getting stronger, might be a push and squeeze day.

 

[law87]

Cyprus deal cut- and futures respond postively.

S&P 500 futures now up about a half-cent.

Should be a positive day today.

too soon

 

[rcknfrewld]

My 13,999 prediction appears to have been one day off

 

[Sensei]

WSJ shows corn futures down BIG. Over -5%. Nothing else seems to be down that much right now. Why is corn down so badly, and what are the ramifications for the greater market? (Like when oil gets too high, it can hurt the transports.)

Also, is there a good ETF out there that tracks corn? Seems like a 5% drop could offer a profitable short-term bounce opportunity.

 

[James48843]

WSJ shows corn futures down BIG. Over -5%. Nothing else seems to be down that much right now. Why is corn down so badly, and what are the ramifications for the greater market? (Like when oil gets too high, it can hurt the transports.)

Also, is there a good ETF out there that tracks corn? Seems like a 5% drop could offer a profitable short-term bounce opportunity.

Corn is down because the USDA released its forecast for planting for 2013, showing a record bumper crop is expected. Corn has been artifically high over the last six months due to the drought. Now the weather service says the drought is releived in many areas, and the USDA is now predicting record corn plantings and harvest ahead this year.

USDA Expects Record-High Combined Corn and Soybean Acreage

U.S. Farmers Look to Be Resilient in 2013

WASHINGTON, March 28, 2013 –Determined to make up for a crop that was adversely affected by historic drought last year, U.S. farmers intend to plant a record-high combined 174.4 million acres of corn and soybeans in 2013, according to the Prospective Plantings report released today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). If realized, corn will represent the highest planted acreage in the United States since 1936 (102 million planted acres) and for soybeans the fourth highest acreage on record.
Corn growers intend to plant 97.3 million acres in 2013, up for the fifth consecutive year, slightly higher than last year and 6 percent higher than in 2011. With expected returns for corn historically high going into 2013, producers throughout the south and the northern Great Plains intend to plant more corn.

Record high corn acreage is expected in Arizona, Idaho, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota and Oregon. Conversely, most states in the Corn Belt which experienced severe drought in 2012 expect to plant slightly less acres to corn in 2013. The largest year-over-year decreases are expected in Illinois, Missouri and South Dakota. Iowa continues to lead the nation with 14.2 million acres of corn.
Farmers in some areas of the country remain challenged by persistent drought conditions which is limiting the amount of expected soybean acreage in some states. Therefore, nationally 77.1 million acres of soybeans are expected to be planted, down slightly from last year but up 3 percent from 2011. Compared with 2012, planting intentions are down across all of the Great Plains, with the exception of North Dakota. The year-over-year national decrease is only 72,000 acres. With planted area in most of the eastern Corn Belt and parts of the Southeast expected to rise, these increases nearly balance out the declines in the Great Plains. If realized, farmers in New York, North Dakota and Pennsylvania will also set new records for planted soybean acres.

Also affected by difficult weather conditions, U.S. cotton growers expect to plant significantly fewer acres in 2013. The expected cotton area this year is 10.0 million acres, down 19 percent from last year. If realized, planted area in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Oklahoma will be a record low. As of March 24, cotton planting in Texas was 3 percent complete, 5 percentage points behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

Prospective Plantings provides the first official, survey based estimates of U.S. farmers’ 2013 planting intentions. NASS’s acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March from a sample of more than 83,500 farm operators across the United States. Prospective Plantings and all NASS reports are available online at www.nass.usda.gov.

###​

That came out on Friday.

 

[Sensei]

Corn is down because the USDA released its forecast for planting for 2013, showing a record bumper crop is expected. Corn has been artifically high over the last six months due to the drought. Now the weather service says the drought is releived in many areas, and the USDA is now predicting record corn plantings and harvest ahead this year.

Nice. So maybe now's not the time to dive in to corn. Probably should wait for a bottom. Not that I'm into trading that sort of stuff anyway.

So the other question, then, is what else will drop in price? Livestock, an assortment of food products (unless companies just assume we're already used to high prices and keep the profits for themselves), paper products, fuels, etc. How about the greater stock market? I remember Tom writing about how commodoties were headed down, which is often a precursor to a slump in the stock market. I guess it's time I head over to investupidia. :embarrest:

 

[James48843]

Note also- here is an animation of the recent drought areas- you'll see that the eastern midwest- (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan) and the Southeast (Georgia, North and South Carolina) have had an easing of the drough conditions. While Nebraska and Iowa still are fairly dry, these other areas have received a bit of releif in the last few weeks.

http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/12_week.gif

Now it is hoped that farmers can get their crops in the ground in a timely fashion, and that we get some RAIN this spring. We can use a lot of gentle- well-spaced rain to break the drought in the rest of the midwest.

 

[bmneveu]

If I'm seeing this right, CNBC is showing massive Fair Value futures right now. -90 DOW, -22 NASDAQ, and +8 S&P 500. The S&P looks to gap down half a percent tomorrow if that holds, and vice versa for the others.

 

[Sensei]

Everything seems all over the place right now. Nikkei up 2.99%, DAX rattling around south of the border, and S&P futures moderately up and rising??? Stick a fork in me.

 

[bmneveu]

If I'm seeing this right, CNBC is showing massive Fair Value futures right now. -90 DOW, -22 NASDAQ, and +8 S&P 500. The S&P looks to gap down half a percent tomorrow if that holds, and vice versa for the others.

CNBC just now fixed their fair value displays. They appear close to flat across the board, but futures are slightly higher.