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oldschool account talk
- Thread starter oldschool
- Start date
imported post
for cob friday 11/4 going to
f 11
c 50
s 19
i 20
what can I say, sending more passengers onto the train, but with a little stash of "f" in case the train goes off the tracks... volume of passengers on the uptown train looking impressive...
interest rates, energy both going wrong direction - yes current reported earnings good, but rates/energy making it hard to repeat earnings growth in future qtrs....
still, there won't much in the way of performance fees for many money managers unless the market goes a bit higher - funny how some years the santa rally turns into a winter scrooge...
for cob friday 11/4 going to
f 11
c 50
s 19
i 20
what can I say, sending more passengers onto the train, but with a little stash of "f" in case the train goes off the tracks... volume of passengers on the uptown train looking impressive...
interest rates, energy both going wrong direction - yes current reported earnings good, but rates/energy making it hard to repeat earnings growth in future qtrs....
still, there won't much in the way of performance fees for many money managers unless the market goes a bit higher - funny how some years the santa rally turns into a winter scrooge...
one per poster per duration??? ..can't do a lot of quarterbacking in those three minutes - 
imported post
it's just a little safety move, hopefully won't be needed but fearful what can happen if volume low next week and markets fixate on some bad news. anyway thanks grandma, trackers do as you need.:?
not sure what to do if there's a near term decline of a day or two - ok, earnings news is in (good), interest rates pretty clear (2 more hikes), oil ending up not anywhere near as bad as some expected. so maybe all the good news is already in the market levels.
could a further santa rally just run on fumes from the already in good news? or will next market focus be on negatives - eurozone types today stating rates there will go up, WSJ and others full of news that mortgage rates going up and housing prices/starts going down (a new house = new appliances, carpet etc. - so 5% decline in housing starts = 5% decline in demand for everything that goes in a new house (yikes!)
just thinking outloud...
it's just a little safety move, hopefully won't be needed but fearful what can happen if volume low next week and markets fixate on some bad news. anyway thanks grandma, trackers do as you need.:?
not sure what to do if there's a near term decline of a day or two - ok, earnings news is in (good), interest rates pretty clear (2 more hikes), oil ending up not anywhere near as bad as some expected. so maybe all the good news is already in the market levels.
could a further santa rally just run on fumes from the already in good news? or will next market focus be on negatives - eurozone types today stating rates there will go up, WSJ and others full of news that mortgage rates going up and housing prices/starts going down (a new house = new appliances, carpet etc. - so 5% decline in housing starts = 5% decline in demand for everything that goes in a new house (yikes!)
just thinking outloud...
imported post
At cob today
g 15
f 5
c 45
s 10
i 25
hmm. hard to ignore that all the equity indices have been on a tear, earnings have been up, oil down, interest rates (well, what will be revealed in FOMC notes to be released today)... in short, business is good, though housing slowing.
so, it's been, seems likely to continue, as rising tide-so hard to have much $ watching from the sidelines.
on Friday the 18th I posted an ift essentially taking some off the table. turns out (to my luck) I missed the deadline for TSP. I sent a minut before noon but TSP did my transfers the next day. I would guess my email to TSP was slowed in cyberspace just enough to miss the noon deadline. Anyway, so my $ were still in the market Monday - an up day despite my worries posted Friday. Today it's looking like japan was flat, euro zone fairly flat, S & P flat to down on a little bit lower volume than last week. Bond markets close early tomorrow, liquidity dries up late in the day for the markets, anyone who wants to be away from the markets over the holiday is (my guess) leveling out their positions today. So, I'm thinking S&P will be a bit down today, and I'm willing to swing back into "c" what I removed from "c" yesterday. This is very rare I'd attempt such a short term swing.
I'm also thinking that if S & P is flat or down today, that may ripple through Japan and Euro zone and cause related declines in "I" fund over next day or two.
Last week Euro zone threatened with interest rate increases, this week they're backpedalling and saying well, maybe it will be just one, not the start of a series.
some think there should be a pull back, others saying rally to year -end and beyond.
query whether those waiting for pullback might not be well served by putting a little in now, and the same amount in later when the pullback they expect actually arrives.
if it doesn't arrive because this is an enduring bull run, they're ok, and if the pull back does arrive, and they put in matching amounts or a little more, good too. many indicators one can watch, but the market is the ultimate judge. I try not to fight it, rather watch/follow what it does...
On a separate point, not really sure what the tsptalk user expectations are about posting only some moves to account allocation threads. Could waste tracker time, confuse others? We can learn from other's mistakes as well as successes - so maybe post everything or nothing?
At cob today
g 15
f 5
c 45
s 10
i 25
hmm. hard to ignore that all the equity indices have been on a tear, earnings have been up, oil down, interest rates (well, what will be revealed in FOMC notes to be released today)... in short, business is good, though housing slowing.
so, it's been, seems likely to continue, as rising tide-so hard to have much $ watching from the sidelines.
on Friday the 18th I posted an ift essentially taking some off the table. turns out (to my luck) I missed the deadline for TSP. I sent a minut before noon but TSP did my transfers the next day. I would guess my email to TSP was slowed in cyberspace just enough to miss the noon deadline. Anyway, so my $ were still in the market Monday - an up day despite my worries posted Friday. Today it's looking like japan was flat, euro zone fairly flat, S & P flat to down on a little bit lower volume than last week. Bond markets close early tomorrow, liquidity dries up late in the day for the markets, anyone who wants to be away from the markets over the holiday is (my guess) leveling out their positions today. So, I'm thinking S&P will be a bit down today, and I'm willing to swing back into "c" what I removed from "c" yesterday. This is very rare I'd attempt such a short term swing.
I'm also thinking that if S & P is flat or down today, that may ripple through Japan and Euro zone and cause related declines in "I" fund over next day or two.
Last week Euro zone threatened with interest rate increases, this week they're backpedalling and saying well, maybe it will be just one, not the start of a series.
some think there should be a pull back, others saying rally to year -end and beyond.
query whether those waiting for pullback might not be well served by putting a little in now, and the same amount in later when the pullback they expect actually arrives.
if it doesn't arrive because this is an enduring bull run, they're ok, and if the pull back does arrive, and they put in matching amounts or a little more, good too. many indicators one can watch, but the market is the ultimate judge. I try not to fight it, rather watch/follow what it does...
On a separate point, not really sure what the tsptalk user expectations are about posting only some moves to account allocation threads. Could waste tracker time, confuse others? We can learn from other's mistakes as well as successes - so maybe post everything or nothing?
imported post
well there, fomc said worried about inflation still, but later we'll worry about overtightening. nothing new, so... market goes up a bit? makes sense in that odd market way.... so much for my short swing of the 10% from C into C.... still, can't complain when mostly in the rising tide...
well there, fomc said worried about inflation still, but later we'll worry about overtightening. nothing new, so... market goes up a bit? makes sense in that odd market way.... so much for my short swing of the 10% from C into C.... still, can't complain when mostly in the rising tide...
imported post
Markets have been steadily up on consistently strong volume for quite a few trading days. Overall, news is good. Earnings were a bit above expectations this quarter, the quality of reported earnings probably superior to quality in recent years as Sarbanes/Oxley and other new requirements take effect. Oil fears calmed at least for now. FOMC had "news" in minutes yesterday, but not really news to overall markets that have been looking to two more quarter point increases and nothing after that. Little in FOMC minutes to change that expectation, in fact minutes seem to prove it out. So markets reassured. Yes, maybe F fund will rally as traders focus on possible end of Fed increases. But that will also push up risks of longer term inflation and thus rate of G fund increase, and other longer term rates, will go up. Nice run on F of late, I'm taking that sure thing and rolling it into the rising tides.
Last few weeks seem a total shift away from patterns of earlier in the year w advances, pullbacks, around a flat for the year point in the C fund. That seems done, where it will next pause on the way up is the $ question. Everytime a pause, more buyers seem to show and prevent any pullbacks. I give up on waiting, I'm all in.... Emotionally (a bad word for any successful investors) it's easier to be all in as I'm well up so far. But that's probably never a sound reason to be in or out....
'course, as usual, the markets will promptly grade my "all in" move....
Markets have been steadily up on consistently strong volume for quite a few trading days. Overall, news is good. Earnings were a bit above expectations this quarter, the quality of reported earnings probably superior to quality in recent years as Sarbanes/Oxley and other new requirements take effect. Oil fears calmed at least for now. FOMC had "news" in minutes yesterday, but not really news to overall markets that have been looking to two more quarter point increases and nothing after that. Little in FOMC minutes to change that expectation, in fact minutes seem to prove it out. So markets reassured. Yes, maybe F fund will rally as traders focus on possible end of Fed increases. But that will also push up risks of longer term inflation and thus rate of G fund increase, and other longer term rates, will go up. Nice run on F of late, I'm taking that sure thing and rolling it into the rising tides.
Last few weeks seem a total shift away from patterns of earlier in the year w advances, pullbacks, around a flat for the year point in the C fund. That seems done, where it will next pause on the way up is the $ question. Everytime a pause, more buyers seem to show and prevent any pullbacks. I give up on waiting, I'm all in.... Emotionally (a bad word for any successful investors) it's easier to be all in as I'm well up so far. But that's probably never a sound reason to be in or out....
'course, as usual, the markets will promptly grade my "all in" move....
imported post
let's see, today new home sales figures higher than expected, that provokes fears fed may need to keep on hiking interest rates, "F" fund fell a couple of cents. a couple more days like this and "F" will start looking good to me.
Hmm. Could be the increase in new home sales was due to price cuts on those homes. If so, nothing in those numbers will likely move Fed from its position stated in the recent FOMC minutes, and market will return to thinking end of Fed increases is near (and that could well take "F" up some more). 'course, I could be wrong...
let's see, today new home sales figures higher than expected, that provokes fears fed may need to keep on hiking interest rates, "F" fund fell a couple of cents. a couple more days like this and "F" will start looking good to me.
Hmm. Could be the increase in new home sales was due to price cuts on those homes. If so, nothing in those numbers will likely move Fed from its position stated in the recent FOMC minutes, and market will return to thinking end of Fed increases is near (and that could well take "F" up some more). 'course, I could be wrong...
imported post
Well, yesterday wasn't so nice, but today - big total volume and up all day. That keeps me all in. Can't help but wonder if yesterday's decline wasn't in part due to some actions by institutional types that calculate management fees on a monthly basis. Oh boy, tax selling and soon, predictions on where the end of year 401K money will enter the market during January....
Well, yesterday wasn't so nice, but today - big total volume and up all day. That keeps me all in. Can't help but wonder if yesterday's decline wasn't in part due to some actions by institutional types that calculate management fees on a monthly basis. Oh boy, tax selling and soon, predictions on where the end of year 401K money will enter the market during January....
imported post
cpi #s look good, suggests fed may be able to stop raising rates earlier rather than later. That confirms fed's changed tone in statement issued earlier this week. Foreign markets may start to worry dollar rally will/is ending along with the ending of Fed rate rises. So foreign markets may go to flat/declining trends as currency trends turn against foreign companies. 'course there's always the option to hope for increases in the i fund due to currency translation effects - but right now I'd rather take the risks of the c fund over the mysterys of the i.
I wonder what the big $ managers are doing now - maybe rolling $ into C equivalents to avoid screwing up year-end performance? Where's that darn crystal ball...
cpi #s look good, suggests fed may be able to stop raising rates earlier rather than later. That confirms fed's changed tone in statement issued earlier this week. Foreign markets may start to worry dollar rally will/is ending along with the ending of Fed rate rises. So foreign markets may go to flat/declining trends as currency trends turn against foreign companies. 'course there's always the option to hope for increases in the i fund due to currency translation effects - but right now I'd rather take the risks of the c fund over the mysterys of the i.
I wonder what the big $ managers are doing now - maybe rolling $ into C equivalents to avoid screwing up year-end performance? Where's that darn crystal ball...
imported post
So maybe we'll be flattish on low volume with a little Santa Perk towards the end of next week?
Now some tension between stronger new home sales figures and growing inventory of resale homes. Some saying the new home builders can and do more quickly adjust prices/incentives to clear out inventory and finish building out to their near term targeted numbers. If that's the case, Fed won't be worried about to strong a market - and we may need to go back to suspecting the Fed will have overdone the braking by the time it hits us one more time.
So what to do early next year? Tradition has it year end bonus money flows into market in January - but last year burned investors who'd hoped year-end rally would carry through. Still, this year's recent rally has only brought the S&P 500 to levels most middle of the road prognosticators predicted for the year. Last two months look big, but really only because coming off the artifically hurricane/oil lows? Seems like it, but I could change my views....
Still riding 90 c, 5 s, 5 i.....
So maybe we'll be flattish on low volume with a little Santa Perk towards the end of next week?
Now some tension between stronger new home sales figures and growing inventory of resale homes. Some saying the new home builders can and do more quickly adjust prices/incentives to clear out inventory and finish building out to their near term targeted numbers. If that's the case, Fed won't be worried about to strong a market - and we may need to go back to suspecting the Fed will have overdone the braking by the time it hits us one more time.
So what to do early next year? Tradition has it year end bonus money flows into market in January - but last year burned investors who'd hoped year-end rally would carry through. Still, this year's recent rally has only brought the S&P 500 to levels most middle of the road prognosticators predicted for the year. Last two months look big, but really only because coming off the artifically hurricane/oil lows? Seems like it, but I could change my views....
Still riding 90 c, 5 s, 5 i.....
Still holding at 95c 5i. Many of the large Wall Street firms are publicly stating this will be a year where large cap stocks outperform small caps. I suppose they told that to their clients before they went public with those views. So, some $$ already no longer in the s fund type stocks and similar index funds. I'm guessing this may mean the s fund will start to at best match upward moves in c, instead of outperforming on the upside. Less liquidity = more risk. A simplistic analysis perhaps, but I've scared myself away from s for the present... i looks tempting, but since I don't really understand how it works in detail, putting more $$ there is a shot in the dark. f might be good in the near term, I'll have to consider that a bit further.
The trend still look generally up to me in the near term but I seem to be more fully in the markets than my usual baseline - today moving back a bit towards my base long term allocation. At COB today will be G 40, C 55, I 5. PPI numbers on Friday should have some response from the markets, maybe not much movement in the indexes until then? Warm weather on the east coast may finish any worries about natural gas prices/supply availability....
So today trade figures looking a bit better, a few less imports and a little cheaper oil seem to be the cause. ECB says not raising rates right now, German economic growth looking flat. So far today looks like Euro dropping vs. the dollar. Hmm. Maybe today's a good day to think U.S. interest rates have room to drop a bit. We'll see - I'm moving some G over into F. At COB today will be G 25, F 25, C55, I5.
Sure, sure, the dollar has to fall and the I fund must go to the moon. But I don't have W. Buffet's billions so I'm not so eager to risk Mr. Market's unwillingness to comply with common sense.....
Sure, sure, the dollar has to fall and the I fund must go to the moon. But I don't have W. Buffet's billions so I'm not so eager to risk Mr. Market's unwillingness to comply with common sense.....
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