03/11/26
The market attempted a "V" bottom recovery after the price of oil plummeted yesterday morning, but more trouble in the Strait of Hormuz caused oil to rally back off its lows, and stocks pulled back into the close. The Nasdaq managed to close just barely green, and the I-fund should get a solid gain from the TSP after Monday's price came up light. Yields and the dollar were near flat after some midday reversals.
The emotional trading should keep volatility on the high end, so it is tough to be comfortable with any early gain or loss, depending where you are sitting, before the TSP transfer deadline because the next headline could change things.
The price of oil is clearly calling the shots these days and yesterday it fell dramatically falling from Monday's high of 120, then getting as low as 76+ yesterday before news about Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz sent the price higher again, back over 90, but eventually closing at 86. The futures trade all day so this will be fluid with the headlines.
And look what the price of oil has been doing to the S&P 500 over the last three days. If oil went down, the S&P went up, and if oil went up, the S&P came down, and the latter is what happened in the final few hours of trading yesterday.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had recaptured its 86-day moving average but gave it up in the afternoon trading. The bottom of the blue bull flag held, but we have seen it fail three times already, although it only closed below it once. As long as that holds the bulls can continue to try to buy the dips, but the bears are not far off - waiting for their opportunity to put pressure on if support gives out.
The Nasdaq 100, the large cap tech stock index, is testing its 40 week moving average, and a long-term support line that originated at a 2022 bear market low, only broke during the tariff tantrum last year. Oracle reported earnings last night after the closing bell and was up about 9%, and that could help here, but the Nasdaq futures were on the flat side when they opened Monday evening.
Not much else matters now but the price of oil, and this happens every once in a while where the market gravitates toward one thing and trades with or against it. It could be bond yields, the Japanese stock or bond market, bitcoin, oil, gold, etc. Right now it is oil, until something else comes along.
We are getting the CPI inflation data this morning, as well as other inflation readings.
If you are wondering why the TSP and TSP Talk AutoTracker prices are being updated an hour later this week, it is because the TSP does not change the time that they post the daily share prices during daylight savings, so if you are used to seeing them just after 8 PM ET, they won't be updated now until after 9 PM ET, until the "fall back" time change in the Fall.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) gave up a healthy gain after failing at the 86-day average on Tuesday, which continues to be a key pivot area on this chart, for whatever reason. It closed back below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern with yesterday's loss, so it is is vulnerable.
ACWX (I-fund) was up yesterday but it closed well off its highs. We should see a return higher than the +0.29% on ACWX for Tuesday (I haven't seen the prices yet as of this writing). I can only hope that these adjustments, and Monday's was one of the biggest I had ever seen, is done for practical reasons that the TSP deems justified, and not some kind of way for BlackRock to take advantage of the mis-pricing. At the end of the year in a buy and hold account, it likely doesn't make a big difference, but on a day to day basis with billions changing hands each day, there may be people [outside of the TSP] somehow profiting off of these adjustments. I don't know. I'm not accusing anyone. I'm just hoping it isn't the case. Ironically, today's price, may be over priced because of the late pull back in US stocks.
BND (bonds / F-fund) pulled back when the price off oil reversed upward, but the chart is still comfortably above the old resistance line and the 50-day moving average. Any break below 74 could be troublesome for bonds and the F-fund.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The market attempted a "V" bottom recovery after the price of oil plummeted yesterday morning, but more trouble in the Strait of Hormuz caused oil to rally back off its lows, and stocks pulled back into the close. The Nasdaq managed to close just barely green, and the I-fund should get a solid gain from the TSP after Monday's price came up light. Yields and the dollar were near flat after some midday reversals.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
The emotional trading should keep volatility on the high end, so it is tough to be comfortable with any early gain or loss, depending where you are sitting, before the TSP transfer deadline because the next headline could change things.
The price of oil is clearly calling the shots these days and yesterday it fell dramatically falling from Monday's high of 120, then getting as low as 76+ yesterday before news about Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz sent the price higher again, back over 90, but eventually closing at 86. The futures trade all day so this will be fluid with the headlines.
And look what the price of oil has been doing to the S&P 500 over the last three days. If oil went down, the S&P went up, and if oil went up, the S&P came down, and the latter is what happened in the final few hours of trading yesterday.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had recaptured its 86-day moving average but gave it up in the afternoon trading. The bottom of the blue bull flag held, but we have seen it fail three times already, although it only closed below it once. As long as that holds the bulls can continue to try to buy the dips, but the bears are not far off - waiting for their opportunity to put pressure on if support gives out.
The Nasdaq 100, the large cap tech stock index, is testing its 40 week moving average, and a long-term support line that originated at a 2022 bear market low, only broke during the tariff tantrum last year. Oracle reported earnings last night after the closing bell and was up about 9%, and that could help here, but the Nasdaq futures were on the flat side when they opened Monday evening.
Not much else matters now but the price of oil, and this happens every once in a while where the market gravitates toward one thing and trades with or against it. It could be bond yields, the Japanese stock or bond market, bitcoin, oil, gold, etc. Right now it is oil, until something else comes along.
We are getting the CPI inflation data this morning, as well as other inflation readings.
If you are wondering why the TSP and TSP Talk AutoTracker prices are being updated an hour later this week, it is because the TSP does not change the time that they post the daily share prices during daylight savings, so if you are used to seeing them just after 8 PM ET, they won't be updated now until after 9 PM ET, until the "fall back" time change in the Fall.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) gave up a healthy gain after failing at the 86-day average on Tuesday, which continues to be a key pivot area on this chart, for whatever reason. It closed back below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern with yesterday's loss, so it is is vulnerable.
ACWX (I-fund) was up yesterday but it closed well off its highs. We should see a return higher than the +0.29% on ACWX for Tuesday (I haven't seen the prices yet as of this writing). I can only hope that these adjustments, and Monday's was one of the biggest I had ever seen, is done for practical reasons that the TSP deems justified, and not some kind of way for BlackRock to take advantage of the mis-pricing. At the end of the year in a buy and hold account, it likely doesn't make a big difference, but on a day to day basis with billions changing hands each day, there may be people [outside of the TSP] somehow profiting off of these adjustments. I don't know. I'm not accusing anyone. I'm just hoping it isn't the case. Ironically, today's price, may be over priced because of the late pull back in US stocks.
BND (bonds / F-fund) pulled back when the price off oil reversed upward, but the chart is still comfortably above the old resistance line and the 50-day moving average. Any break below 74 could be troublesome for bonds and the F-fund.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
