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I’m watching them- it looks like a small, steady stream of a variety of both cargo and oil tanker, and LPG ships are in a single line, at 10.5 knots, and then disappear off the AIS system as they approach the straight. So some traffic is flowing, at night, in the dark, when they can’t easily be remotely tracked.

I do not yet see any reappearing on the other end, I’ll try and find one that does, and see how long they are in the dark zone.

We have no idea, of course, if anything is being intercepted in the middle.
 

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P.S.- yep- a little string of ants all following the line. At 10.5 knots. Definitely some traffic is moving.

Oh, and two great big Chinese registered cargo ships just kind of plowed their own way through to n the last hour, without regard to anyone else. China is not hesitating to go.
 
James48843 said:
P.S.- yep- a little string of ants all following the line. At 10.5 knots. Definitely some traffic is moving.

Oh, and two great big Chinese registered cargo ships just kind of plowed their own way through to n the last hour, without regard to anyone else. China is not hesitating to go.
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With the AIS systems off and in very dark waters I hope the Chinese ships don't run into another ship.
 
Interesting.

It turns out that the U.S. Energy Secretary who said the U.S. Navy escorted a tanker this morning was wrong. He just apparently is just incompetent to even know what his own Navy is doing.

See this story-

Oil retreats even after Energy Secretary wrongly claims Navy escorted tanker through Strait of Hormuz​

Source: CNBC

Oil prices retreated Tuesday, even after Secretary of Energy Chris Wright wrongly claimed in a social media post that the U.S. Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The U.S. Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Tuesday.

U.S. crude oil fell 11.94% to close at $83.45 per barrel. Brent crude , the global benchmark, lost 11.28% to settle at $87.80. Prices fell more than 17% immediately after Wright’s post.
...
Wright had said “the U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets.”

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/crude-oil-prices-today-iran-war.html
 
I thought i saw a report that Iran is allowing any ships to pass through that are not American, Israeli, or European.

I've yet to see a report of a ship from one of those places get through since this started. It also means that any other ship going through probably doesn't need an American escort.
 

Oil Supply Risks Mount as Iran Lays Mines in Strait of Hormuz​

By Tom Kool - Mar 10, 2026, 2:37 PM CDT
Satellite footage of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz

Iran has begun laying naval mines in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to two people familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting, in what analysts warn could extend the effective blockade of the world's most critical energy chokepoint and deepen disruption to global oil flows.

The mining activity - currently limited to a few dozen mines laid in recent days - represents an escalation in Iran's campaign to assert control over the narrow waterway, sources said. Tehran still possesses roughly 80%-90% of its small naval vessels and mine-laying craft, enabling it to potentially deploy hundreds more mines if it chooses, CNN reported.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), now sharing control of the strait with the regular navy, has a range of asymmetric capabilities, including scattered mine-laying craft, explosive-laden boats and shore-based missile batteries, giving it the ability to create a complex array of threats to passing vessels. The IRGC has previously warned that any ship attempting to transit the Strait will be attacked, effectively rendering the passage a "death valley" for commercial mariners in the current war environment.

More:
oilprice.com

Oil Supply Risks Mount as Iran Lays Mines in Strait of Hormuz | OilPrice.com

Iran has begun laying naval mines in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to two people familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting
oilprice.com oilprice.com
 
James48843 said:

Oil Supply Risks Mount as Iran Lays Mines in Strait of Hormuz​

By Tom Kool - Mar 10, 2026, 2:37 PM CDT
Satellite footage of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz

Iran has begun laying naval mines in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to two people familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting, in what analysts warn could extend the effective blockade of the world's most critical energy chokepoint and deepen disruption to global oil flows.

The mining activity - currently limited to a few dozen mines laid in recent days - represents an escalation in Iran's campaign to assert control over the narrow waterway, sources said. Tehran still possesses roughly 80%-90% of its small naval vessels and mine-laying craft, enabling it to potentially deploy hundreds more mines if it chooses, CNN reported.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), now sharing control of the strait with the regular navy, has a range of asymmetric capabilities, including scattered mine-laying craft, explosive-laden boats and shore-based missile batteries, giving it the ability to create a complex array of threats to passing vessels. The IRGC has previously warned that any ship attempting to transit the Strait will be attacked, effectively rendering the passage a "death valley" for commercial mariners in the current war environment.

More:
oilprice.com

Oil Supply Risks Mount as Iran Lays Mines in Strait of Hormuz | OilPrice.com

Iran has begun laying naval mines in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to two people familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting
oilprice.com oilprice.com
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P.S.-
We just got rid of the very last four U.S. Navy Minesweepers at the end of January. They are gone.

We didn’t buy any new minesweepers. Apparently our Navy planners have been spending all the navy money on pretty new Submarines and Aircraft carriers, and not any minesweepers. Maybe planning for the new, big beautiful battleship the President wants…
 

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The saying in the Navy was any ship can be a mindsweeper at least once... goes the same for being a submarine.

The old gas light came on finally in my little daily driver on my way home from work, had to stop to fill up. My rural station near my house was up to $3.37 yesterday.
 
Oil hit $98.61 at the close today. And shortly after the close, President Trump announced a major attack on the Iranian Oil Terminal at Kharg island. That’s where a lot of Iran’s exports of oil are loaded onto ships.

Trump says military targets were hit, but he threatened oil infrastructure today. He did not say we hit hit it- but he was threatening.

No information yet on how much destruction- but putting Kharg Island out of business would be another hard hit against the oil supply worldwide. Neither Jimmy Carter nor Ronald Reagan hit the oil assets of Iran in the 70’s/80’s. They could have, but didn’t. Kharg island does 90% of Iran’s oil exports. If it gets whacked, the world price of oil will skyrocket.

See more on the strike here:
oilprice.com

Trump Bombs Iran’s Kharg Island and Threatens to Hit Oil Exports | OilPrice.com

U.S. President Donald Trump said American forces had launched a major bombing raid on Iran’s strategic Kharg Island
oilprice.com oilprice.com


Oilprice.com has this chart from today.

IMG_8934.jpeg
 
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No information yet on how much destruction- but putting Kharg Island out of business would be another hard hit against the oil supply worldwide. Neither Jimmy Carter nor Ronald Reagan hit the oil assets of Iran in the 70’s/80’s.
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Saddam did.
 
Interesting article over on OilPrice.com that explains that paper prices and real prices are suddenly out of alignment- price is $38 more in reality in spot physical oil, and why it’s going to $200 sooner that you think-

oilprice.com

Futures Market Misreads the Hormuz Oil Shock | OilPrice.com

Physical crude prices are trading far above paper futures, indicating real shortages as buyers scramble for cargoes and refiners consider cutting operations.
oilprice.com oilprice.com

Worth reading.
 
Interesting analysis from an oil expert-

Now that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, that cuts off 20 million barrels of oil a day to the world market.

Saudi Arabia has an alternate pipeline over to the Red Sea. It will handle about 5 million barrels a day. Not everything, but at least some. And there is a second pipeline for another 1.5 million barrels a day to the Indian Ocean. Not enough, but some. And the rerouting has started.

It’s gonna be rough. $200 oil ahead is likely. Sooner, rather than later.
www.facebook.com

255K views · 2.3K reactions | Two bypass oil pipelines offer a temporary solution to control prices — but nothing will replace reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas explains. | Bloomberg Opinion

Two bypass oil pipelines offer a temporary solution to control prices — but nothing will replace reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas explains.
www.facebook.com www.facebook.com

Worth watching.
 
Japan, Australia and the UK said they have no plans to send ships


Japan, Australia and the UK said they have no plans to send ships to help secure the strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that Iran has mostly blocked to oil tanker traffic, as Donald Trump ramps up pressure on allies to provide support.

The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz by Tehran, in retaliation for airstrikes by the US and Israel, has proved catastrophic for global energy and trade flows, causing the largest oil supply disruption in history and soaring global oil prices.

Trump on Sunday said his administration had already contacted seven countries for support, but declined to identify them. In an earlier social media post, he said that he hoped China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain and others would participate.

“I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory because it is their territory,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on the way from Florida to Washington on Sunday. “It’s the place from which they get their energy.”
More:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/16/strait-of-hormuz-australia-japan-no-ships
 
James48843 said:
Japan, Australia and the UK said they have no plans to send ships


Japan, Australia and the UK said they have no plans to send ships to help secure the strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that Iran has mostly blocked to oil tanker traffic, as Donald Trump ramps up pressure on allies to provide support.

The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz by Tehran, in retaliation for airstrikes by the US and Israel, has proved catastrophic for global energy and trade flows, causing the largest oil supply disruption in history and soaring global oil prices.

Trump on Sunday said his administration had already contacted seven countries for support, but declined to identify them. In an earlier social media post, he said that he hoped China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain and others would participate.

“I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory because it is their territory,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on the way from Florida to Washington on Sunday. “It’s the place from which they get their energy.”
More:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/16/strait-of-hormuz-australia-japan-no-ships
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Thanks James, it's interesting, we always seem to be the country fighting over the oil that others are consuming.

GROK: Here is a rough tally of major interstate or large-scale military involvements with significant documented oil dimensions (post-1914, when petroleum became strategic), based on mainstream analyses:
  • United States — ~6–8 major cases, Examples: 1953 Iran coup (oil nationalization), 1980s Persian Gulf tanker protection, 1991 Gulf War (Kuwait/Saudi fields), 2003 Iraq invasion (debated oil role), 2011 Libya intervention, anti-ISIS operations (oil fields), plus sanctions/interventions tied to Venezuelan/Iranian oil.
  • United Kingdom — ~3–4, Examples: Early 20th-century Mesopotamian campaigns (WWI-era), 1953 Iran coup (joint with US), 1956 Suez Crisis (oil transit), lingering Gulf influence.
  • Iraq — ~3, Examples: 1980–1988 Iran–Iraq War (border/oil fields), 1990 Kuwait invasion (oil reserves/debt), related no-fly zones skirmishes.
  • Iran — ~2–3, Examples: 1980–1988 Iran–Iraq War (defensive/oil-rich Khuzestan), 1980s Tanker War phase, proxy financing via oil revenues in later conflicts.
  • Japan — ~1–2, Examples: 1941–1945 Pacific campaigns (Dutch East Indies oil seizure after embargoes), part of WWII strategy.
 
Well- Iran has shut off all Western and Asian oil tanker traffic. But in the interest of good sportsmanship, we are letting the Iranian ships through.


U.S. is allowing Iranian tankers through Strait of Hormuz, says Bessent​

Last edited Mon Mar 16, 2026, 09:05 AM

Source: CNBC

Published Mon, Mar 16 2026 7:54 AM EDT Updated 4 Min Ago

The United States is allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in an interview Monday. “The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” Bessent told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan in Paris. The Treasury secretary is in France to hold trade talks with China. Tanker traffic through the Strait has plunged as Iran attacks commercial ships in the Persian Gulf.

But the Islamic Republic has continued to export millions of barrels of oil through the narrow sea route despite the large U.S. Navy presence in the region. Iran exports about 1.5 million barrels per day. The Trump administration believes tanker traffic through the Strait will increase before U.S. Navy and allied forces start escorting commercial ships, Bessent said. Tankers that supply India have transited the Strait, he said. The U.S. believes some Chinese ships are also making it out of the Gulf, he said.

“We think that there will be a natural opening that the Iranians are letting out, and for now we’re fine with that. We want the world to be well supplied,” Bessent said. President Donald Trump is pressuring nations that rely on the Strait for oil to help the U.S. protect tankers from attacks by Iran. The Strait, which connects the Gulf to the global market, is the most important trade route for oil in the world. About 20% of global oil supplies passed through the narrow waterway before the war.

Oil prices have surged about 40% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran two weeks ago. The war has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history as exports through the Strait have collapsed, according to the International Energy Agency.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/us-...rs-through-strait-of-hormuz-says-bessent.html
 
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