Why $200 Oil Is Just Around the Corner
Rigzone Staff
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Friday, September 04, 2009
Jeff Rubin
Jeff Rubin believes that oil prices are going to escalate much higher. In his book
Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller, Rubin foretells $200 oil and a vastly transformed global economic picture coming into focus very soon.
The premise of Rubin's book is that oil is a finite resource and so-called "easy" oil is waning. Inevitably production will be unable to keep up with the growing demand worldwide, and the price of oil will skyrocket.
The chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Canada for 20 years, Rubin correctly predicted the price of oil reaching $50 in 2005 and $100 in 2007. No one believed him then, either.
"There continues to be widespread skepticism regarding my oil price forecast," Rubin told Rigzone. "As I noted in
the book, few people have ever changed their minds during the entire history of the peak oil debate, at least insofar as 'experts' are concerned."
Peak Oil Pushes New Frontiers
Pointing out that 1966 was the peak in the discovery of new oil fields, Rubin also states that production declines every year by about 4 million barrels per day because of depletion. In order to replace what is currently being pumped, the industry must in the next five years discover reserves that will top 20 million barrels of oil a day.
In an effort to replace production, exploration and development have been pushed to much harder to produce ultra-deepwaters and equally difficult to refine oil sands. While new developments have been made to enable production from the ulta-deepwaters of the Gulf of Mexico and the oil sands of Canada and Venezuela, these resources come at a price.
In addition to the industry striving to generate emerging (and costly) technologies to overcome the rigors of working in waters that are more than a mile deep, Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Ike and more have proven the Gulf of Mexico a volatile investment, with mega-projects, miles and miles of pipelines, and refineries delayed and even destroyed due to these storms.
Additionally, while Rubin expects Canadian oil sand production to increase to 4 million barrels a day, the heavy oil "must be processed extensively to become a usable motor fuel … done through an extensive cracking process that is much more costly and energy intensive than cracking light sweet crude."
According to Rubin, the cost of developing [more]
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