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James48843 said:
When Ike comes ashore, Houston area refiners are going to get hit very, very hard.
Click to expand...

What he looks like right now;

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_cira.html?extraprod=cira#a_topad

at200809_sat.jpg
 
Oil churns as Ike approaches http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Crude futures hover at 5-month-low as the hurricane heads toward the oil producing region along the Texas Gulf Coast.

By Catherine Clifford, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: September 12, 2008: 1:03 PM EDT

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices churned Friday as Hurricane Ike blew across the Gulf of Mexico toward a strip of refineries on the Texas coast.
U.S. crude for October delivery traded up 43 cents at $101.30 a barrel, after reaching as high as $102.89 earlier in the session. Oil settled down $1.71 to $100.87 a barrel on Thursday - the lowest settle price since March 24, when oil ended the day at $100.86.
Oil prices were volatile as traders gauged what Ike's impact would be. "The market's total focus is on Hurricane Ike," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading. "The market is really trying to determine how bad this storm is going to be."
The crude market had been focused on slumping demand until Friday. On Thursday, crude prices fell. "The reality is hitting the market in the face here," said Andrew Lebow, a broker at MF Global in New York. The storm veered toward the Houston refineries and by Friday, "the market is looking at how dangerous this storm really is," said Lebow.
The Category 2 hurricane continues on its path across the Gulf Coast and was "forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the Coast," according the National Hurricane Center.
Ike was 365 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas, and 265 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas. The Hurricane Center warned the public that "preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be rushed to completion."
Refineries in danger: Texas is home to 26 refineries, which can process almost 4.8 million barrels of crude per day, or more than 25% of the nation's total refining capacity, according to the Department of Energy. Most of Texas' refineries are the Gulf Coast ports of Houston, Port Arthur, and Corpus Christi.
The refineries along the Texas Coast are more vulnerable to the strong winds and rain that Ike brings than the oil rigs in the Gulf. "It is not the oil rigs. They are pretty well reinforced," said Ray Carbone, president of Paramount Options, an oil trading company.
While Ike has not posed significant damage to crude rigs, if the refineries are shut-down, the crude market will suffer repercussions eventually. Gas is a main product of crude oil. "If your end product is rallying, it has to have an effect on the raw material," said Lebow.
"It is going to be about flooding and power outages in the region," said Carbone. "Without power, no refineries will be working and the flooding could complicate how long it takes them to come back online."
Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for Oil Price Information Service, an independent publisher that follows fuel prices in North America echoed those comments. After Katrina, some refineries were shut down for 6 to 9 months, said Kloza.
"If the storm does damage to the refineries then we could see price increases in gas and heating oil," said Flynn. The decrease in supply of gas and heating oil due to Ike could be magnified by the fact that refineries had already been limiting their output because of slackening demand.
With Ike headed toward the Texas Gulf Coast refinery row, wholesale gas prices spiked Thursday and remained elevated Friday even as crude prices retreated. Late morning on Friday, wholesale gas prices were at $4.90 per gallon in the Gulf region, according to Kloza.
That price hike for dealers will push prices up at the pump, but not as drastically as wholesale gas prices have spiked. "No one wants to take the lead" in raising prices, said Kloza, so oil companies might try to cover as much of the price hike as they can for consumers.
Post-Gustav: [more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/12/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008091213
 
Oil Bounces Above $101, Eyes on Hurricane Ike Friday, September 12, 2008 - Oil prices recovered to above $101 a barrel on Friday, as the markets kept a watchful eye on the path of Hurricane Ike that could disrupt refineries and production in the United States for weeks.

OPEC Crude Price Plunges Below $100 Friday, September 12, 2008 - Falling $1.51 on Thursday, the price for crude oil produced by OPEC has decreased for the sixth day in a row, according to data provided by OPEC on Friday. http://www.rigzone.com/
 
possible scenarios...

1.Major refineries from Houston to Lake Charles LA shut down due to damage, refinery capability limited, reduced demand for crude, price of oil <$100 bbl, OPEC cuts production, price of crude escalates.

2.Refineries brought online in record time, price of oil <$100 bbl, OPEC cuts production, price of crude escalates.
 
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[FONT=MS Sans Serif, Arial]Our friend Hugo is at it again!:nuts: [/FONT]
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[FONT=MS Sans Serif, Arial]US Sanctions Chavez Aides in Growing Crisis
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Xinhua Financial News [/FONT]
[FONT=MS Sans Serif, Arial]Friday, September 12, 2008

[FONT=MS Sans Serif, Arial]The United States escalated a major diplomatic crisis with Venezuela on Friday, imposing sanctions on aides to President Hugo Chavez in retaliation for his expulsion of the U.S. ambassador. [/FONT][FONT=MS Sans Serif, Arial]

[FONT=MS Sans Serif, Arial]The crisis and Chavez's threat to cut off oil shipments to the United States sent debt tumbling in the OPEC nation and plunged relations between the superpower and one of its top energy suppliers to their lowest point in years. [/FONT]

Washington was also preparing to eject Venezuela's top diplomat in the United States, a U.S. official said, although Chavez tried to pre-empt that move by telling him to pack his bags and go home on Thursday.

Venezuela has some of the largest oil reserves outside the Middle East and despite Chavez's clashes with the Bush administration, he has maintained oil supplies and never before expelled a U.S. ambassador.

Chavez said Thursday's move was made in support of his leftist South American ally President Evo Morales of Bolivia, where violent anti-government protests have killed eight people. Bolivia and the United States have expelled their respective ambassadors too this week after Morales accused Washington of supporting the opposition.

Venezuelan bond yield spreads over U.S. Treasuries -- widely seen as a gauge of investor risk perception -- soared 41 basis points to 765 basis points on Friday. Rising spreads are associated with more investor risk perception.

Chavez said he would not restore relations with the United States at least until his stated foe U.S. President George W. Bush leaves the White House in January.

"When there is a new government in the United States we will send a new ambassador, a government that respects the people of Latin America," he said late on Thursday.

Lehman Brothers' Gianfranco Bertozzi, who analyzes how political risk in Venezuela can affect the country's debt prices, told investors the market was overreacting to the diplomatic moves because there had been no oil-related measures.

"This expulsion is really only until the next administration, the election for which is 53 days away, and in the meantime oil is still flowing -- although markets seems agitated by the risk of escalation," he wrote from New York.

"We doubt that we will see any (escalation) though, but superficial conflict will likely go on in the near term."
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=66573


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It's now 4:50 am eastern time, and I just was woken up out of sleep- with a water dream- Galveston was washed away, totally.

Pray for those in Texas tonight, as high tide was about 20 minutes ago, and I fear we're going to see some really, really significant destruction on Galveston Island and in and around Galveston bay.

It's bad.

Very bad.​
 
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If I'm not mistaken, the Federal Correction Institution in Beumont, Texas
is in the direct path as well. My prayers go out to all Texans and to those
who may be required to stay in harms way at FCI Beumont. I sure hope
they evacuated a day or two ago, but something tells me they didn't. :worried:
 
Looks like this hurricane could have been a lot worse? It's bad but not as bad as it could have been. I've been through some bad ones and it's not pretty, especially at night. I just hope that many many lives were spared due to the preparation taken! BIG BUCKS FOLKS!! Guess I should have Gassed up the cars?:cool:
 
Ike's aftermath: The return of $4 gas

Gas prices poised to climb towards record levels again as hurricane hits center of nation's oil refining base; Ike could also cost insurers up to $18 billion.

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: September 13, 2008: 2:39 PM EDT

CNNMoney.com) -- Gas prices are poised to shoot back towards record highs after Hurricane Ike's direct hit on the heart of the nation's oil refinery base, analysts said.

In addition, Hurricane Ike could turn out to be the third-most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history, according to preliminary forecasts from a firm that does loss estimates for the insurance industry.
Experts say it's too soon to know exactly how bad the damage from the Category 3 hurricane, which slammed into Galveston, Texas early Saturday, will be to refineries.
Some early reports suggested that damage to the refineries could be limited despite the nearly direct hit.
But production at the refineries, which produce nearly a quarter of the nation's gasoline, could still be affected if it takes weeks or months to restore full power to the region.
The uncertainty has experts projecting everything from gasoline soaring above $5 a gallon nationwide to an average price that remains just below the $4 mark.
Gas prices already climbing
Many consumers throughout the Southeast have already started to see sharp increases in gas prices before the storm even hit. The latest nationwide daily survey by AAA conducted Friday showed prices up nearly 6 cents a gallon to $3.733.
Some markets, particularly in the Gulf Coast and South, have been hit with a more than a 20 cent a gallon overnight increase. For example, the price of gas jumped 27 cents in Knoxville, Tenn. to $3.924.
"This is a fear factor among station owners," said Kevin Kerr, editor of Global Commodities Alert. "They're worried that they're not going to get any more supply or if they do it's going to be a lot more expensive."
To that end, gas prices soared three years ago in the week after Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans. Prices jumped 17% to a then record high of $3.0569 due to damage to refineries and pipelines.
Kerr said the path of Hurricane Ike was the worst possible scenario. There are about 20 refineries from Lake Charles, La., to Corpus Christi, Texas. All of them saw winds and heavy rain from the storm. Together, they have nearly 5 million barrels a day of refining capacity between them.
Almost half of that total capacity is concentrated in the Houston-Galveston area, which is where the center of the storm hit. Beyond refineries in the area, gasoline pipelines and other key transportation infrastructure could limit the supply reaching consumers.
"We could see gas go up to $6 in certain states. I think the baseline will be more like $4.50, maybe even $5," said Kerr.
The ExxonMobil (XOM, Fortune 500) refinery in Baytown, Texas, with a daily capacity of 567,000 barrels, is the largest refinery in North America. And the eye of the hurricane passed right over it.
CNN correspondent Ali Velshi reported Saturday morning that there was no apparent damage to the refinery that could be seen from outside it, despite extensive damage in Baytown.
Kevin Allexon, spokesman for ExxonMobil, said the company has yet to determine if there is damage that could further disrupt operations.
"There's still some pretty significant weather that affects how safe it is to do assessment work," he said.
Oil analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover said he's encouraged by initial reports suggesting that crucial oil facilities in the region survived without substantial damage. He's hopeful that if refineries can resume near normal operations later this week, gas prices will remain below record levels.
"Right now it looks like we took a licking and we kept on ticking, although it's still early to get full reports," he said. "As of now, I don't have reason to believe it's going to be a lasting factor. It doesn't look like you'll get to $4 nationwide, but you'll see $4 gas in a number of places," he said.
But Tom Kloza, the chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service, which provides the data for the AAA survey, said he's worried about how long it will take to get full production going again.
"Even if we missed the worse of it, it's going to be a mess," he said. "U.S. refineries are really dependent on local utilities. When you hear them talking about power outages lasting for weeks, it's a worry."
The Department of Energy reported that 2.4 million customers were without power as of Saturday morning, essentially everyone in the direct path of the hurricane.
Kloza said fear of a political backlash could keep oil companies and wholesalers from raising prices as high as the market might support in the face of such a tight supply.
But he said that even if consumers are spared the full brunt of price increases, they could end up dealing with limited supplies in some markets.
"You're going to see a lot of stations in some places that don't have gasoline and you'll see some lines," he said. He's predicting nationwide gasoline prices to rise to about $4 a gallon, give or take a dime for the next month.
What's more, production at refineries along the Gulf Coast had yet to return to normal since they shutdown in preparation for Hurricane Gustav, which hit near New Orleans on Sept. 1, but caused limited damage.
Kloza added that jet fuel, diesel and heating oil prices could sharply increase -- partly because they don't get the public attention or political scrutiny that gasoline prices do.
Ike cost may only lag Katrina and Andrew
But Hurricane Ike will prove to be costly even beyond the impact on gas and other energy prices.
EQECAT, a firm that does catastrophe estimates for the insurance industry, said its initial forecast for insured losses from Ike range from $8 billion to $18 billion.
The low end of that estimate would make Ike the fifth most expensive storm in history after adjusting earlier storms' costs for inflation.
But the high end of that forecast would put Ike behind only Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Andrew as the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history, according to the Insurance Information Institute.
Hurricane Katrina cost insurers an inflation-adjusted $43 billion, while Hurricane Andrew, which hit South Florida in 1992, cost the industry an inflation-adjusted $22.9 billion. http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/13/news/economy/ike_effect/index.htm?postversion=2008091314
 
One (1) Day to spike up 0.20 cents. :mad:
One Hundred (100) Days to drop back down 0.20 cents :mad:
What ? Are we stupid or something ? :mad:

{VENTING} :sick:
 
everything i read is IKE is not as bad as expected. I think they are money grubbing whores. :mad: Oh btw if it does go up to 5 and 6 dollars a gallon forget seeing 3.50 a gallon again.
 
Ike's aftermath: The return of $4 gas

Gas prices poised to climb towards record levels again as hurricane hits center of nation's oil refining base; Ike could also cost insurers up to $18 billion.

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: September 14, 2008: 8:23 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gas prices are poised to shoot back toward record highs after Hurricane Ike's direct hit to the heart of the nation's oil refineries, analysts said.

The average price of gasoline nationwide has already shot up 12 cents in the past two days to $3.795 a gallon, according to figures released by the AAA Sunday. And the average price of gas is now at or above $4 in Alaska, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and South Carolina.
In addition, Hurricane Ike could turn out to be the third-most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history, according to preliminary forecasts from a firm that does loss estimates for the insurance industry.
Experts say it's too soon to know exactly how much damage the hurricane - which slammed into Galveston, Texas, early Saturday - did to the refineries.
Some early reports suggested that the damage could be limited despite the nearly direct hit.
But the output at the refineries, which produce nearly 25% of the nation's gasoline, could still be affected if it takes weeks or months to restore full power to the region.
The uncertainty left experts projecting everything from a nationwide gasoline spike above $5 a gallon to a jump to just below the $4 mark.
Gas prices already climbing [more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/13/news/economy/ike_effect/index.htm?postversion=2008091317
 
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Two Drilling Rigs Adrift in GOM:worried:
Not many details are available yet, but the MMS and US Coast Guard have reported that two drilling rigs are adrift in the Gulf of Mexico. These rigs have to have been among the nine moored semisubmersibles that were hit with hurricane force winds by Hurricane Ike. [more]
http://www.rigzone.com/news/hurricanes/ike.asp
 
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Shell Making Plans to Conduct Flyover of GoM Assets
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Shell Saturday, September 13, 2008

Now that Ike has passed through the Gulf of Mexico, Shell is making plans to conduct a flyover of our GoM assets that may have been impacted by Ike, most notably the Auger Tension Leg Platform. The flyover may happen today or tomorrow, depending on flying conditions around the facilities.
We plan to redeploy a small amount of personnel today to some Shell-operated assets that were not in the immediate path of Ike. These personnel are flying out of an area not affected

by the hurricane. We intend to continue to redeploy personnel over the next several days. These dedicated people will focus on ensuring safe conditions, establishing power and communications and conducting damage assessments.
Once power and communications are restored at our facilities, then personnel can commence repairs, and where possible, conduct restart and production ramp up procedures. Production ramp up at each facility will vary and could take from a few days to weeks.


http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=66589
 
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