nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Ah! Comon over I've got the Booze!!!
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Oil Slick Stuff
- Thread starter nnuut
- Start date
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Oil & the Gold-Oil Ratio (GOR)
Daily & Weekly Status
by Gary Tanashian, Biiwii.com | July 21, 2008
We have finally gotten our break in oil. That is a major fundamental relief because with manic oil bulls stampeding, congress and the administration fretting (and plotting hair brained solutions) and the Fed stuck in a box made with walls of Greenspan's easy money policy (inflation) and the effects of that policy (escalated prices), all of us - from the average guy going paycheck to paycheck to precious metals investors - were being held in suspended animation.
The Fed is not simply pretending to be concerned about inflation in this scenario, they ARE concerned because a price explosion like that of oil - and especially the one likely in gold at a later date - threatens to discredit the institution for all to see as they pray to the munny gods for the ability to ease policy while at the same time some moonshot asset class slaps them upside the head day after day.
Unfortunately, a major break in crude may also mean a confirmation of a crippled global economy and for precious metals investors, as I have mentioned endlessly, it could mean a mass exodus of the dreaded 'all the same commodity complex' bulls. See John Hussman's Total Return Fund. Once he became acutely bearish on oil, he dumped his precious metals shares. Since this is an analyst whose opinions I respect, I move forward with this in mind much as I have with Prechter's gold bearish view for years now.
Anyway, enough words. Here are the charts; a daily and a weekly of nominal oil and a daily and weekly of the gold-oil ratio (GOR). We keep in mind that money policy is not improving and that oil is a major cost driver to precious metals miners. We are either right or we are wrong but we remain on a bullish course as long as the fundamentals in which we believe hold true - and as long as the HUI - per Friday's chart - remains intact.
Oil has broken down on the daily but the weekly shows a longer term bull market that could remain intact as long as the current monetary system remains stitched together. The GOR has bottomed and turned up with violence but I would not be surprised to see oil rebound here in nominal as well as gold terms. The charts tell the story:
click to expand charts
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tanashian/2008/0721.html
Daily & Weekly Status
by Gary Tanashian, Biiwii.com | July 21, 2008
We have finally gotten our break in oil. That is a major fundamental relief because with manic oil bulls stampeding, congress and the administration fretting (and plotting hair brained solutions) and the Fed stuck in a box made with walls of Greenspan's easy money policy (inflation) and the effects of that policy (escalated prices), all of us - from the average guy going paycheck to paycheck to precious metals investors - were being held in suspended animation.
The Fed is not simply pretending to be concerned about inflation in this scenario, they ARE concerned because a price explosion like that of oil - and especially the one likely in gold at a later date - threatens to discredit the institution for all to see as they pray to the munny gods for the ability to ease policy while at the same time some moonshot asset class slaps them upside the head day after day.
Unfortunately, a major break in crude may also mean a confirmation of a crippled global economy and for precious metals investors, as I have mentioned endlessly, it could mean a mass exodus of the dreaded 'all the same commodity complex' bulls. See John Hussman's Total Return Fund. Once he became acutely bearish on oil, he dumped his precious metals shares. Since this is an analyst whose opinions I respect, I move forward with this in mind much as I have with Prechter's gold bearish view for years now.
Anyway, enough words. Here are the charts; a daily and a weekly of nominal oil and a daily and weekly of the gold-oil ratio (GOR). We keep in mind that money policy is not improving and that oil is a major cost driver to precious metals miners. We are either right or we are wrong but we remain on a bullish course as long as the fundamentals in which we believe hold true - and as long as the HUI - per Friday's chart - remains intact.
Oil has broken down on the daily but the weekly shows a longer term bull market that could remain intact as long as the current monetary system remains stitched together. The GOR has bottomed and turned up with violence but I would not be surprised to see oil rebound here in nominal as well as gold terms. The charts tell the story:
click to expand charts
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tanashian/2008/0721.html
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Oil jumps $2 on Iran, storm
Crude prices bounce back from $16 slide as Iran nuclear talks end without agreement and traders fear tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico.
By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: July 21, 2008: 3:02 PM EDT
(CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices rebounded strongly Monday, following the largest four-day slide in trading history, as investors focused on a break down of negotiations with Iran, as well as Tropical Storm Dolly, which is making its way into the Gulf of Mexico.
Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery settled up $2.16 to $131.04 a barrel.
Oil endured a volatile session, bouncing between $129 and $130 for much of the morning before rebounding later in the session.
"This is the bulls' last gasp before the contract expires Tuesday," said Stephen Schork, editor of the energy industry newsletter The Schork Report. "The bulls had been running scared because of the huge declines we had."
Oil prices fell more than $16 a barrel over the previous four sessions, as the market focused on a possible thawing of U.S. and Iranian tensions, and investors feared that tight supplies may have eased a bit.
But negotiations between Iran and six Western nations over the Middle Eastern nation's nuclear ambitions broke down Saturday when Iran scoffed at a call to freeze its uranium enrichment plans.
The U.S. government, represented by Undersecretary of State William Burns, was discouraged by Iran's lack of concessions. Policy analysts believe that Iran's response could set the stage for a new round of sanctions on Iran by the United Nations.
Oil traders had been encouraged leading up to the weekend meeting, but their fears about access to Iran's oil supply were restored when the talks did not yield positive results.
"The hope was that tensions would be diffused so Iran could avoid sanctions," said Alaron Trading senior market analyst Phil Flynn.
Gulf storm: Traders also feared that Tropical Storm Dolly could interrupt drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm hit the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico over the weekend and reached the Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon.
"The market is buying rumors of Dolly, because inventories are already so overdrawn," said Flynn. "They're probably overreacting, because it could only be a Category 1, but potentially any Gulf storm is disturbing."
It doesn't necessarily take a strongly active hurricane season to cause major disruption to oil drilling in the Gulf, however.
"The makeup of a storm can have all the difference," said Flynn. "Slow moving storms have a tendency to churn up underground pipelines, so you don't need a Category 5 to do a lot of damage."
The average hurricane halts oil drilling production for over a week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Rig workers are forced to evacuate two to three days before the storm hits, and as soon as it's safe to return, they have to check for damage before they can restart production.
But by midday, it became apparent that Dolly's path would not interfere with many offshore rigs, according to Schork, and investors instead focused on the expiring contract.
Contract nearing expiration date: The August contract is set to expire Tuesday, which produced a volatile session Monday. Tuesday is expected to be equally erratic.
Speculators generally sell their contracts to producers just prior to the contracts' expiration so that the investors do not need to accept shipment of oil barrels.
"That sell-off date is so close, so it adds a bit more volatility to the market," said Neal Dingmann, senior energy analyst with Dahlman Rose & Co. "Generally, on the expiration day, traders are trying to sell off their contracts."
Crude was still trading about $16 below its record of $147.27 set July 11.
Gas prices: The price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline fell to $4.069, down from $4.077 the previous day, according to a daily survey from motorist advocacy group AAA.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/21/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008072115
Crude prices bounce back from $16 slide as Iran nuclear talks end without agreement and traders fear tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico.
By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: July 21, 2008: 3:02 PM EDT
(CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices rebounded strongly Monday, following the largest four-day slide in trading history, as investors focused on a break down of negotiations with Iran, as well as Tropical Storm Dolly, which is making its way into the Gulf of Mexico.
Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery settled up $2.16 to $131.04 a barrel.
Oil endured a volatile session, bouncing between $129 and $130 for much of the morning before rebounding later in the session.
"This is the bulls' last gasp before the contract expires Tuesday," said Stephen Schork, editor of the energy industry newsletter The Schork Report. "The bulls had been running scared because of the huge declines we had."
Oil prices fell more than $16 a barrel over the previous four sessions, as the market focused on a possible thawing of U.S. and Iranian tensions, and investors feared that tight supplies may have eased a bit.
But negotiations between Iran and six Western nations over the Middle Eastern nation's nuclear ambitions broke down Saturday when Iran scoffed at a call to freeze its uranium enrichment plans.
The U.S. government, represented by Undersecretary of State William Burns, was discouraged by Iran's lack of concessions. Policy analysts believe that Iran's response could set the stage for a new round of sanctions on Iran by the United Nations.
Oil traders had been encouraged leading up to the weekend meeting, but their fears about access to Iran's oil supply were restored when the talks did not yield positive results.
"The hope was that tensions would be diffused so Iran could avoid sanctions," said Alaron Trading senior market analyst Phil Flynn.
Gulf storm: Traders also feared that Tropical Storm Dolly could interrupt drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm hit the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico over the weekend and reached the Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon.
"The market is buying rumors of Dolly, because inventories are already so overdrawn," said Flynn. "They're probably overreacting, because it could only be a Category 1, but potentially any Gulf storm is disturbing."
It doesn't necessarily take a strongly active hurricane season to cause major disruption to oil drilling in the Gulf, however.
"The makeup of a storm can have all the difference," said Flynn. "Slow moving storms have a tendency to churn up underground pipelines, so you don't need a Category 5 to do a lot of damage."
The average hurricane halts oil drilling production for over a week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Rig workers are forced to evacuate two to three days before the storm hits, and as soon as it's safe to return, they have to check for damage before they can restart production.
But by midday, it became apparent that Dolly's path would not interfere with many offshore rigs, according to Schork, and investors instead focused on the expiring contract.
Contract nearing expiration date: The August contract is set to expire Tuesday, which produced a volatile session Monday. Tuesday is expected to be equally erratic.
Speculators generally sell their contracts to producers just prior to the contracts' expiration so that the investors do not need to accept shipment of oil barrels.
"That sell-off date is so close, so it adds a bit more volatility to the market," said Neal Dingmann, senior energy analyst with Dahlman Rose & Co. "Generally, on the expiration day, traders are trying to sell off their contracts."
Crude was still trading about $16 below its record of $147.27 set July 11.
Gas prices: The price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline fell to $4.069, down from $4.077 the previous day, according to a daily survey from motorist advocacy group AAA.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/21/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008072115
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Dolly turned a bit to the left and is no threat to Gulf Oil!
Oil steadies as storm threat eases
Shell says production in the Gulf of Mexico won't be affected by Tropical Storm Dolly.
07/22/08
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices held steady near $131 a barrel Tuesday in Asia on expectations Tropical Storm Dolly won't disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
Royal Dutch Shell, Europe's biggest oil company, said Monday it was evacuating workers from oil rigs in the western part of the Gulf but didn't expect its production to be affected by the storm.
"The market doesn't see Dolly as a real threat at this point," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consulting firm Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. "It doesn't look like it will have much of an impact." [more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008072206
Oil steadies as storm threat eases
Shell says production in the Gulf of Mexico won't be affected by Tropical Storm Dolly.
07/22/08
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices held steady near $131 a barrel Tuesday in Asia on expectations Tropical Storm Dolly won't disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
Royal Dutch Shell, Europe's biggest oil company, said Monday it was evacuating workers from oil rigs in the western part of the Gulf but didn't expect its production to be affected by the storm.
"The market doesn't see Dolly as a real threat at this point," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consulting firm Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. "It doesn't look like it will have much of an impact." [more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008072206
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
NYMEX following suit, this should help the Markets.
10:30........$127.16.......-3.88
Buster
Well-known member
NYMEX following suit, this should help the Markets.
10:30........$127.16.......-3.88
Indeed it has...
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Oil plummets $5 a barrel
Paulson and Wachovia contribute to the sense that economy is weaker, and fears ease about Gulf storm disruption.
By Kenneth Musante, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: July 22, 2008: 11:35 AM EDT
Oil prices have risen more than 80% over the last 12 months.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices fell Tuesday as a perceived decline in U.S. demand took hold again after worries subsided about disruption of production in the Gulf of Mexico.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $5.09 to $125.95 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. ET. Trading of the August contract was set to conclude with the close of the market in New York.
Economy: Analysts said remarks by Treasury Secretary [more] http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008072211
Paulson and Wachovia contribute to the sense that economy is weaker, and fears ease about Gulf storm disruption.
By Kenneth Musante, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: July 22, 2008: 11:35 AM EDT
Oil prices have risen more than 80% over the last 12 months.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices fell Tuesday as a perceived decline in U.S. demand took hold again after worries subsided about disruption of production in the Gulf of Mexico.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $5.09 to $125.95 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. ET. Trading of the August contract was set to conclude with the close of the market in New York.
Economy: Analysts said remarks by Treasury Secretary [more] http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008072211
James48843
Well-known member
I wouldn't get too comfortable too soon. One big event at everything could change again.
Besides- notice how happy you are that Oil is at $127 a barrel?
That didn't take long. A month ago you would have been complaining about $127. (Oh, you WERE). Buster, you told us $128 was as high as it was ever going to go, and that it would soon drop to $100.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=164791&postcount=2950
of course- that was before it jacked up to $148.
How quickly we forget.
I hope you are right on the $100 part- or LESS.
But we'll just have to wait and see.
Besides- notice how happy you are that Oil is at $127 a barrel?
That didn't take long. A month ago you would have been complaining about $127. (Oh, you WERE). Buster, you told us $128 was as high as it was ever going to go, and that it would soon drop to $100.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=164791&postcount=2950
of course- that was before it jacked up to $148.
How quickly we forget.
I hope you are right on the $100 part- or LESS.
But we'll just have to wait and see.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Buster
Well-known member
yes, thanks for the reminder
Mr. Slim Jim...You should know by now, I tend to throw some OPTIMISTIC Mojo at things..just the way I roll...More people should try that track, instead of the glass half empty look on life all the time....makes for a happier day in my life..
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Crackdown on oil speculators moves forward
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Legislation meant to crack down on oil speculators passed a key test vote in the Senate on Tuesday.
Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-North Dakota, says that "nothing in supply and demand" justifies the current price of oil.
The test vote on the legislation, which was backed by the Democratic leadership, was 94-0. The support of 60 senators was needed for debate on the bill to proceed. It was unclear when a final vote on the legislation would occur.
With gas prices edging over $4 a gallon, lawmakers are rushing to introduce legislation meant to lower prices at the pump.
Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, one of the Democrats sponsoring the bill, said the quickest way to lower prices at the pump is to stop speculators from driving up the price of a barrel of oil.
"First things first. If you are running a race with hurdles, jump the first hurdle first," Dorgan told reporters Monday. "The reason we have oil at $130, $140, $145 a barrel -- like a roman candle going up, up, up -- is because we have excessive, relentless speculation in these markets.
"Nothing in supply and demand in the last year justifies the price of oil."
Mark Cooper of the Consumer Federation of America argued that market fundamentals do not explain a $40 to $60 per barrel "speculative premium" that he said he believes exists on the price of oil.
On Monday, a barrel of light, sweet crude closed at $131.04 a barrel, up nearly $2 from Friday's close but down from the $147 a barrel record set on July 11.
The cry to stop oil speculation has been taken up by consumer advocates and CEOs of companies such as the major airlines, whose bottom lines are heavily dependent on the price of oil.
To raise oil speculation as an issue, the airlines have sent e-mail messages to members of their frequent-flier programs and have created a Web site, stopoilspeculationnow.com.
The Democrats' bill, dubbed the "Stop Excessive Speculation Act," is sponsored by Dorgan as well Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and other Democratic leaders.
It would provide more resources and authority to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to detect and punish speculation, stop speculators from using foreign markets to manipulate the price of oil in the U.S., require more transparency in oil markets and limit the trading of market players who do not intend to take delivery of the oil they purchase.
In particular, the bill will give the commission greater power to regulate the "swap" market for futures and differentiate between "legitimate" and "illegitimate" hedge trading that, Democrats have said, has led to increased prices.
But Sen. George Voinovich, R-Ohio, called the Democratic proposal "a smoke screen."
"It may be part of the solution, but it certainly isn't the answer," he said, noting that tapping domestic oil reserves would be a better way to reduce prices.
Experts also have questioned the extent that speculators -- rather than basic market principles of supply and demand -- have driven up the price of oil.
While admitting that speculation is having some impact, Daniel Yergin, an oil analyst and Pulitzer Prize-winning author, pointed to increased demand, particularly in China and India; limited refining capacity; and unrest in oil-producing areas such as the Middle East, Nigeria and Venezuela as reasons why the price of a barrel of oil has gone up.
"The result of all this is a much tighter market -- in terms of the balance between supply and demand -- than had been customary for several decades," Yergin told a joint congressional economic committee last month.
However, Yergin cited a trend in which investors spooked by the faltering U.S. economy have been buying oil, rather than gold, to protect their wealth. That tactic has increased the price of oil, Yergin said, and led to an ironic situation in which Americans, already dealing with the subprime credit crunch, again are hit when they go to the pump.
President Bush and his Republican allies in Congress have been ratcheting up the political pressure on Democrats by pressing for a vote to repeal a 1981 law banning offshore oil drilling. Republicans also want a vote to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Preserve for oil speculation.
Senate Republicans have been negotiating with Democrats for a vote on a bill that would expand oil drilling, but no deal had been struck as of Monday evening.
The move to lift the offshore drilling ban is popular in the eyes of the public, which is suffering from high gas prices, a recent CNN poll indicates.
The poll conducted by the Opinion Research Corp. found that 72 percent of those surveyed supported more offshore drilling. About a quarter -- 27 percent -- oppose lifting the ban. The poll, conducted June 26-29, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, said last week that she continues to oppose expanding offshore drilling ban and would not schedule a vote to lift the ban.
"The impression that the White House has given you is that if you could drill in these protected areas, the price of gasoline will come down," Pelosi told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "Even the president in his press conference the other day acknowledged that that was not the case."
Pelosi said more drilling would take a decade to have an impact on gas prices, and she argued that a faster way to lower gas prices would be to release oil from the 700 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Bush has opposed the move, saying oil in the reserve should only be released for national emergencies.http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/news/economy/Dems_speculators/index.htm?postversion=2008072212
- NEW: Senators vote 94-0 to let legislation move forward
Democrats push law to give regulators new power to punish speculators
One analyst says speculation has raised the price of oil by $40 to $60 a barrel - Other analysts say rising demand is main factor behind rise in oil prices
Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-North Dakota, says that "nothing in supply and demand" justifies the current price of oil.
The test vote on the legislation, which was backed by the Democratic leadership, was 94-0. The support of 60 senators was needed for debate on the bill to proceed. It was unclear when a final vote on the legislation would occur.
With gas prices edging over $4 a gallon, lawmakers are rushing to introduce legislation meant to lower prices at the pump.
Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, one of the Democrats sponsoring the bill, said the quickest way to lower prices at the pump is to stop speculators from driving up the price of a barrel of oil.
"First things first. If you are running a race with hurdles, jump the first hurdle first," Dorgan told reporters Monday. "The reason we have oil at $130, $140, $145 a barrel -- like a roman candle going up, up, up -- is because we have excessive, relentless speculation in these markets.
"Nothing in supply and demand in the last year justifies the price of oil."
Mark Cooper of the Consumer Federation of America argued that market fundamentals do not explain a $40 to $60 per barrel "speculative premium" that he said he believes exists on the price of oil.
On Monday, a barrel of light, sweet crude closed at $131.04 a barrel, up nearly $2 from Friday's close but down from the $147 a barrel record set on July 11.
The cry to stop oil speculation has been taken up by consumer advocates and CEOs of companies such as the major airlines, whose bottom lines are heavily dependent on the price of oil.
To raise oil speculation as an issue, the airlines have sent e-mail messages to members of their frequent-flier programs and have created a Web site, stopoilspeculationnow.com.
The Democrats' bill, dubbed the "Stop Excessive Speculation Act," is sponsored by Dorgan as well Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and other Democratic leaders.
It would provide more resources and authority to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to detect and punish speculation, stop speculators from using foreign markets to manipulate the price of oil in the U.S., require more transparency in oil markets and limit the trading of market players who do not intend to take delivery of the oil they purchase.
In particular, the bill will give the commission greater power to regulate the "swap" market for futures and differentiate between "legitimate" and "illegitimate" hedge trading that, Democrats have said, has led to increased prices.
But Sen. George Voinovich, R-Ohio, called the Democratic proposal "a smoke screen."
"It may be part of the solution, but it certainly isn't the answer," he said, noting that tapping domestic oil reserves would be a better way to reduce prices.
Experts also have questioned the extent that speculators -- rather than basic market principles of supply and demand -- have driven up the price of oil.
While admitting that speculation is having some impact, Daniel Yergin, an oil analyst and Pulitzer Prize-winning author, pointed to increased demand, particularly in China and India; limited refining capacity; and unrest in oil-producing areas such as the Middle East, Nigeria and Venezuela as reasons why the price of a barrel of oil has gone up.
"The result of all this is a much tighter market -- in terms of the balance between supply and demand -- than had been customary for several decades," Yergin told a joint congressional economic committee last month.
However, Yergin cited a trend in which investors spooked by the faltering U.S. economy have been buying oil, rather than gold, to protect their wealth. That tactic has increased the price of oil, Yergin said, and led to an ironic situation in which Americans, already dealing with the subprime credit crunch, again are hit when they go to the pump.
President Bush and his Republican allies in Congress have been ratcheting up the political pressure on Democrats by pressing for a vote to repeal a 1981 law banning offshore oil drilling. Republicans also want a vote to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Preserve for oil speculation.
Senate Republicans have been negotiating with Democrats for a vote on a bill that would expand oil drilling, but no deal had been struck as of Monday evening.
The move to lift the offshore drilling ban is popular in the eyes of the public, which is suffering from high gas prices, a recent CNN poll indicates.
The poll conducted by the Opinion Research Corp. found that 72 percent of those surveyed supported more offshore drilling. About a quarter -- 27 percent -- oppose lifting the ban. The poll, conducted June 26-29, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, said last week that she continues to oppose expanding offshore drilling ban and would not schedule a vote to lift the ban.
"The impression that the White House has given you is that if you could drill in these protected areas, the price of gasoline will come down," Pelosi told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "Even the president in his press conference the other day acknowledged that that was not the case."
Pelosi said more drilling would take a decade to have an impact on gas prices, and she argued that a faster way to lower gas prices would be to release oil from the 700 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Bush has opposed the move, saying oil in the reserve should only be released for national emergencies.http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/22/news/economy/Dems_speculators/index.htm?postversion=2008072212
Silverbird
Well-known member
The president is pushing to lift the ban on drilling off the coasts. That won't be a quick fix for oil prices.
By Barney Gimbel, writer
Last Updated: July 21, 2008: 3:37 PM EDT
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- President Bush intensified pressure on Congressional Democrats this weekend to end a 26-year-old offshore drilling moratorium, saying lawmakers have closed off "vast" oil reserves that could be tapped to lower record gasoline prices.
There are just two problems with that critique:
First, it'll be at least five years - and more like 10 - before any significant amount of new oil starts flowing.
Second, no one really knows how much oil is out there to begin with.
....[O]on the Atlantic. There, the oil-reserve estimates are so out of date that the MMS has had to draw on well data from Nova Scotia and even from North Africa - which 200 million years ago, after all, was all but bumping up against the southern coast of North America.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/21/new...ling.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008072115
By Barney Gimbel, writer
Last Updated: July 21, 2008: 3:37 PM EDT
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- President Bush intensified pressure on Congressional Democrats this weekend to end a 26-year-old offshore drilling moratorium, saying lawmakers have closed off "vast" oil reserves that could be tapped to lower record gasoline prices.
There are just two problems with that critique:
First, it'll be at least five years - and more like 10 - before any significant amount of new oil starts flowing.
Second, no one really knows how much oil is out there to begin with.
....[O]on the Atlantic. There, the oil-reserve estimates are so out of date that the MMS has had to draw on well data from Nova Scotia and even from North Africa - which 200 million years ago, after all, was all but bumping up against the southern coast of North America.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/21/new...ling.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008072115
Silverbird
Well-known member
Oil speculation: Why we don't have answers
The case for Congress to regulate the oil futures market
By Nomi Prins, contributor
Last Updated: July 8, 2008: 11:39 AM EDT
(Fortune) -- The debate over whether oil prices are being driven by speculators in the futures market or by the fundamentals of supply and demand for the physical product slides right on by a central point. The question Congress and regulators should be focusing on isn't who is driving prices, but how prices are being driven....
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/07/news/economy/oil_prins.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008070811
The case for Congress to regulate the oil futures market
By Nomi Prins, contributor
Last Updated: July 8, 2008: 11:39 AM EDT
(Fortune) -- The debate over whether oil prices are being driven by speculators in the futures market or by the fundamentals of supply and demand for the physical product slides right on by a central point. The question Congress and regulators should be focusing on isn't who is driving prices, but how prices are being driven....
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/07/news/economy/oil_prins.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008070811
Frixxxx
Moderator
Speculation in supply and demand, where did I hear that before? Oh Econ 101.
Maybe change the way you do business??
Cry instead of focus. If it cost you money to do business then charge your customers for it. If you have less customers (less demand), then prices go down.
Supply and demand again.
Wow, sounds like people trying to protect their interests. Sounds like our request to have unlimited IFTs. To protect our assets. Go figure!
Once again, supply and demand, If we have it, then it's less. If we don't, then its more.
I'm not listening to her! My advice, neither should you.
EEK! 5 YEARS TO GO!
New member
Very little seismic exploration has been done in the Atlantic. Those oil reserve estimates (not the same as PROVEN reserves) are based on algae growth. Go to MMS website to figure it out.
Drill what's already under lease, explored, and proved (proven reserves); and PRODUCE what you have CAPPED! You got the price where you wanted it....
malyla
Active member
I agree! This smoke screen about oil prices decreasing when the law on offshore drilling is overturned is just a cover for a modern day land grab.
Silverbird
Well-known member
If you want to invest in oil, long term, invest in an oil company instead of a consumable commodity. Unless you are willing to take that oil shipment yourself, you are playing with prices. Futures trading keeps commodity prices steady; it's NOT for long term investment. Investment in stock is different, companies need the equity from the rising stock prices. Oil sellers don't need ever rising prices! They need a steady price they can rely on over a short period of time before delivery.