Dire predictions about gasoline prices
LOS ANGELES
June 27, 2008 5:11am
• $5 gas by Labor Day; $7 gas by 2010
• Millions to abandon their cars
• But what’s this? Prices are dropping
Their cars may not be left to rust away by the roadside, but economists from one of North America’s largest banks say millions of Americans will not be able to afford to drive their cars within the next few years because the price of gasoline will have risen so much.
Gas prices will soon hit $7 per gallon, taking an unprecedented 10 million vehicles off U.S. roads over the next four years, says a new energy report from CIBC World Markets, a unit of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX: CM NYSE: CM) of Toronto.
"By 2012, there should be some 10 million fewer vehicles on American roadways than there are today -- a decline that dwarfs all previous adjustments including those during the two OPEC oil shocks," says Jeff Rubin, chief economist and chief strategist at CIBC World Markets. "Many of those in the exit lane will be low income Americans from households earning less than $25,000 per year. At their current driving habits, filling up the tank will have risen from about seven per cent of their income to 20 per cent, an increase that will see many start taking the bus."
More immediately, nearly three out of four (74 percent) of Americans expect gasoline prices to hit $5 by Labor Day, according to polling by Opinion Research Corporation for the nonprofit and nonpartisan Civil Society Institute think tank.
Three out of four Americans (74 percent) and 73 percent of likely voters - including a bipartisan 73 percent of Republicans, 74 percent of Democrats and 74 percent of independents - say that they already are "very angry" (40 percent) or "somewhat angry" (33 percent) about gasoline prices, according to the poll, released Thursday.
The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill to control rampant speculation in the oil markets, suspected as one of the reasons for skyrocketing pump prices.
“Rampant crude oil speculation … artificially drives up the cost of a barrel of oil,” says Central Valley congressman Jerry McNerney, who was among the 322 members who voted in favor of the “Energy Markets Emergency Act.” Just 98 opposed it.
The bill directs the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, the regulatory body that oversees the trading of contracts for future deliveries of commodities – including crude oil -- full authority and potent emergency tools to curtail excessive speculation and other practices distorting the energy market, Mr. McNerney says.
But it’s not getting Californians down, the American Automobile Association says.
Despite record gas prices and concerns about the economy, a majority of auto club members says they are planning to take at least the same amount of vacation trips this summer compared to last year, and 90 percent will make at least one out-of-town getaway.
A new survey by the Automobile Club of Southern California showed that 41 percent of its members plan to travel about the same amount this summer as last year, while 26 percent plan to take more trips than last year and 33 percent expect to take fewer trips.
"Record gas prices are definitely having an impact on our members, but summer vacations are still very important to them," says Bob Kane, vice president for district office operations. "People are finding ways to continue traveling."
Nearly ninety percent of Auto Club members surveyed said they plan to take at least one leisure trip this summer, while 11 percent are not planning any trips.
But hark! Gasoline prices are actually down in some parts of California from a week ago.
Here are Central Valley market averages on June 27 (driving from south to north) as reported by the American Automobile Association with last week’s (June 20) averages in parentheses and June 13 prices in brackets:
• Bakersfield, $4.581 ($4.588) [$4.539]
• Visalia-Porterville, $4.651 ($4.644) [$4.585]
• Fresno, $4.624 ($4.630) [$4.575]
• Merced, $4.582 ($4.595) [$4.557]
• Modesto, $4.522 ($4.545) [$4.520]
• Stockton-Lodi, $4.549 ($4.572) [$4.528]
• Sacramento, $4.524 ($4.569) [$4.538]
• Yolo, $4.538 ($4.580) [$4.534]
• Chico, $4.532 ($4.564) [$4.516]
The average price of self-serve regular gasoline in the Los Angeles-Long Beach area is $4.610, which is 1.6 cents less than it was on June 20. In San Diego, the price is $4.596, a drop of 3.4 cents since last week.
California’s highest
market average price on June 27 continues, for the third week in a row, to be in Santa Barbara. But like other cities, this week the price is down. The average price for a gallon of regular octane, self-serve is currently $4.672, down three cents in a week.
A Shell station in San Mateo, which has its regular priced at $5.21 per gallon, appears to be the only place in California on June 27 where it’s over $5, although there continue to be many individual stations posting $4.99 prices, according to the website GasBuddy.com.
The lowest
market average in California on June 27 is $4.522, found in Modesto, according to the AAA. That’s two cents lower than last week’s lowest that was found in the Santa Rosa area.
What might be the lowest price spotted in California is $4.35 at an Arco station in El Centro, according to Gasbuddy.
What might be the lowest price for a gallon of gas in the country is found in Mountain Grove, Mo., a small community in the Ozark Mountains, at $3.61, says GasBuddy.
GasBuddy bases its figures on reports from volunteer “price spotters” reporting specific locations in the U.S. and Canada. They are
not independently confirmed.
The AAA’s prices are market averages for self-serve regular grade (87 octane) gasoline. They are calculated daily from credit card purchases.
Not every station is surveyed and not every market is included in either report. Both price surveys note that there can be wide variations within any market.
Source:
http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=9143