Stocks had a nice day gains-wise on Thursday, but sellers did step up during the last hour of trading and turn a 200-point gain in the Dow, down to an 82-point gain by the close. Once again a negative intraday reversal in oil seemed to be the culprit.
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There was similar sell-off from 11 AM until about 12:30 ET which shows that the bears are happy to sell the rallies, but the bulls were also there - at least early, to buy the dip.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-Fund) posted a couple of nice intraday rallies but it closed closer to the lows and can be considered a negative reversal day. It failed at the 20-day EMA and closed right on the 50-day EMA, and remains in the short-term descending trading channel (red).
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) held at the November low for a second day but remains below the key moving averages. It could be stuck in that red trading channel, which would be bullish since it is at the bottom of the range now. The open gap is about 2% below the current level if support does not hold.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index was up big early like the other indices, and it did hold onto some decent gains, but there was a bit of a negative reversal by the close. It did hold above Septembers low again and that seems to be all that is keeping it from hitting the August lows. Bad chart and still in a bear market, but could be due for a little relief. The question is, will it test the August lows before trying to rebound?
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The price of oil fell again on Thursday as stocks moved during the day, in sympathy, despite closing higher. This is now 3 closes in the last 4 days below the August low support line for oil.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-Fund) continues to hold above that large open gap from early October. The bottom of the gap should provide at least temporary support if tested, but on the upside the 50-day EMA is crossing the old pennant support line, and that could easily be stiff resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Yesterday I showed the Nikkei and DAX falling below some key support. Here is the London FTSE Index, another major part of our I-fund and clearly also in some technical trouble trading below the 50 and 200-day EMA and now some rising support.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-Fund) was relatively flat again on Thursday with the short-term descending resistance line holding and closing just under the 50-day EMA.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
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