03/31/26
Yesterday morning started out promising with the S&P 500 futures up more than 1%, but once again we saw early gains slip away as oil moved above $100 a barrel. However, we shined the light on the clear pattern of strong starts to the week, particularly Mondays, and of course that's usually when those patterns or streaks end. The Dow closed with a small gain, but otherwise it was another sea of red for the stock market, with small caps hit the hardest.
Today will be the end of the first quarter and after a strong start, we have seen five straight negative weeks for the S&P 500, and now week six started with another loss. There's no rule that says we can't be down for six straight weeks, but even during the COVID crash, the S&P 500 was down for four out of five weeks before bottoming. The losses were much more dramatic during those five weeks, but duration wise, we're basically in the same situation.
In 2025 the S&P 500 was down for four straight weeks, saw one positive weekly rally, then another two more down weeks before the bottom was made, so it was actually a seven week decline in total.
So getting a six week losing streak would be unusual without a rebound in there somewhere, but again, the losses this time, while troubling, have been less severe than those prior market bear market events.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) saw a moderate loss yesterday, but the alarming part was the inability to hold early gains again and the loss on a Monday, which had been a day of reprieve from this recent corrective activity.
Oil was the culprit again as Western Texas Crude closed over $100 for the first time since 2022. This may need to start moving in the other direction for the stock market to get some relief, and while there's no guarantees, we know we may only be a headline away from a reversal.
Yields fell sharply so I was surprised to see small caps lagging, but that was a good sized decline in the 10-year Treasury Yield yesterday, giving bonds (BND) and the F-fund something to celebrate. The chart is still underneath some heavy resistance.
If you have a transaction left in March, you must use it before noon ET today, otherwise it becomes one of your April transfers.
We will get the March jobs report on Friday. Estimates are looking for a gain of about 55,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.
Despite the jobs report, the stock market will be closed on Friday, as well as the TSP, so we will not be posting any updates that day. Pre-holiday reversal, anyone?
From tsp.gov: "Holiday Closing - Some financial markets will be closed on Friday, April 3, in observance of Good Friday. Consequently, the Thrift Savings Plan will not be updating share prices in any of the TSP funds for that day. Transactions that would have been processed Friday night (April 3) will be processed Monday night (April 6) at Monday's closing share prices."
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) looked bad, and with yields falling sharply yesterday, I was surprised that this didn't do better and outperform the S&P 500. Support is broken and the 2375 head and shoulders initial breakdown target has now been officially hit.
ACWX (I-fund) was down slightly, and that was actually impressive given the 0.50% gain in the dollar yesterday, which should have weighed more heavily on the global indices.
Thanks so much for reading! See you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Yesterday morning started out promising with the S&P 500 futures up more than 1%, but once again we saw early gains slip away as oil moved above $100 a barrel. However, we shined the light on the clear pattern of strong starts to the week, particularly Mondays, and of course that's usually when those patterns or streaks end. The Dow closed with a small gain, but otherwise it was another sea of red for the stock market, with small caps hit the hardest.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
Today will be the end of the first quarter and after a strong start, we have seen five straight negative weeks for the S&P 500, and now week six started with another loss. There's no rule that says we can't be down for six straight weeks, but even during the COVID crash, the S&P 500 was down for four out of five weeks before bottoming. The losses were much more dramatic during those five weeks, but duration wise, we're basically in the same situation.
In 2025 the S&P 500 was down for four straight weeks, saw one positive weekly rally, then another two more down weeks before the bottom was made, so it was actually a seven week decline in total.
So getting a six week losing streak would be unusual without a rebound in there somewhere, but again, the losses this time, while troubling, have been less severe than those prior market bear market events.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) saw a moderate loss yesterday, but the alarming part was the inability to hold early gains again and the loss on a Monday, which had been a day of reprieve from this recent corrective activity.
Oil was the culprit again as Western Texas Crude closed over $100 for the first time since 2022. This may need to start moving in the other direction for the stock market to get some relief, and while there's no guarantees, we know we may only be a headline away from a reversal.
Yields fell sharply so I was surprised to see small caps lagging, but that was a good sized decline in the 10-year Treasury Yield yesterday, giving bonds (BND) and the F-fund something to celebrate. The chart is still underneath some heavy resistance.
If you have a transaction left in March, you must use it before noon ET today, otherwise it becomes one of your April transfers.
We will get the March jobs report on Friday. Estimates are looking for a gain of about 55,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.
Despite the jobs report, the stock market will be closed on Friday, as well as the TSP, so we will not be posting any updates that day. Pre-holiday reversal, anyone?
From tsp.gov: "Holiday Closing - Some financial markets will be closed on Friday, April 3, in observance of Good Friday. Consequently, the Thrift Savings Plan will not be updating share prices in any of the TSP funds for that day. Transactions that would have been processed Friday night (April 3) will be processed Monday night (April 6) at Monday's closing share prices."
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) looked bad, and with yields falling sharply yesterday, I was surprised that this didn't do better and outperform the S&P 500. Support is broken and the 2375 head and shoulders initial breakdown target has now been officially hit.
ACWX (I-fund) was down slightly, and that was actually impressive given the 0.50% gain in the dollar yesterday, which should have weighed more heavily on the global indices.
Thanks so much for reading! See you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
