Odds of a rate cut this week decrease

[tsptalk]

Expectations suddenly are rising that the Fed might not cut interest rates this week

Markets generally expect the Federal Reserve to approve a quarter-point rate cut this week.

Chances are rising, though, of no move, with markets assigning a 34% probability of the Fed staying put.

Better economic data, a thawing in U.S.-China relations and firming inflation a contributing to the less dovish view.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/16/fed-decision-expectations-rising-that-rate-cut-might-not-happen.html

 

[tsptalk]

The odds of a rate cut tomorrow are down to 61%... 39% against.

This was 89% just last week. :33:

 

[tsptalk]

It's moving fast... down to a 57% chance of a cut. 43% against.

The odds of a rate cut tomorrow are down to 61%... 39% against.

This was 89% just last week. :33:

 

[tsptalk]

Chances of a rate cut fell below 50% at some points yesterday. This morning it's back to 70%.

 

[tsptalk]

NY Fed Doubles-Down on Repo Intervention as Bank Cash Crisis Rattles Markets

The New York branch of the U.S. Federal Reserve will step in and offer billions more in liquidity to gummed-up intrabank lending markets Wednesday, following the first intervention in more than a decade only yesterday, as a worrying spike in overnight borrowing costs continues to perplex investors and complicate today's Fed rate decision.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...-as-bank-cash-crisis-rattles-markets-15094169


Liquidity Shortage Getting Worse: Fed's Repo Oversubscribed As Funding Demand Soars 50% Overnight

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/fe...funding-rates-ominously-elevated-across-board

 

[James48843]

Liquidity crisis? Where the heck did that come from?? Israeli election? Iran attack on Saudi oil field? Did somebody leave the keys in the car and some kid is taking it for a joy ride?

Hmmmmm.....


The 2 O'clock announcement is going to be interesting.

If they cut 1/2% I would be surprised- it would mean they are real worried, and trying to halt something we can't see yet. I think that would tank the markets.

Cut a 1/4% and there is no real surprise, but it means they are worried. Markets were kind of expecting that- so will the markets react with a down stroke?

Or leave it the same, in which case, people (you know who) will tweet that they should have lowered his interest rates, and the markets won't like that tweet.


In any case- I think it's going to be "Sell on the news".

tick tock.